Discombobulation Man

Could be a case of Look but dont touch for the billionth time this cold spell for me. Most of the heavy stuff now progged to the West of London with our east side of the band decaying over the channel into a pile of steaming hot pish before it wobbles over and dumps 10 billion flecks of snizzle over me. Dont worry I'm not moaning There is still a chance of a dumping if the channel can be our friend tonight and hold that ppn together before smashing us, the ppn is already a lot stronger than the MetO invent radar was predicting so you never know :lol: I'm going for the dream scenario; PPN holds together in the channel and powers up the Eastern side of the band as it swings round - before getting well and truly stuck over the SE for a day dumping 45cm on London and the SE. Back of the net if it happens. . . but dont get your hopes up too much

Just read Nick F's update regarding Wednesday and maybe it doesn't look so good for us after all http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/59644-new-year-cold-spell/page__st__17#entry1738646 Still lots to play for but dont fancy sleet

Things have changed a bit since this morning when it was issued,I bet they expand the warnings for Wednesday if things firm up this evening. BTW excellent ECM Even though a couple of mildish days at the weekend, the block strikes back with a hint of a proper reload of cold into FI

Yeah it should be in this setup because we'll still be drawing a continental feed. . . unless it all goes tits up. Very interestingly the 6z this morning stalled the precipitation over London and SE for an extra few hours but it was a massive outlier - but now the 12z has sort of followed the trend by bringing us over here more into play, will be definitely game on if we can carry on trending towards the 06z outlier this morning and then maybe add a little bit more of an Easterly shunt to the precip band on top of that It's all about the shortwave that develops up the channel as the Low comes into the SW approaches, need to see how it gets progged if it shows up on future runs. . . EDIT - just seen the NAE chart you posted - defo game on now

No how you're feeling mate, I've been chasing pish around on a radar screen for the last week watching streams set up everywhere but here, finally the winds turned favourable up the Thames for a couple of seconds this evening but now I'm back to watching Kent getting the big dollops and I'm scanning the streamer for flecks that my come way. What a desperate exisitence, can we not get a direct Easterly for more than a minute?

We've had light snow here for the last 30 mins, not settling though - the streamer of sorts is certainly in affect, raintoday shows it up well if you put in your postcode so it zooms in. I think we should all look at possible re-load scenarios and where our next dollop is going to come from because we aint going to get anything from this setup anytime soon.

Right cheers, looks live everyones getting the stealth snizzle then - Mwahahaha

How much did your snow machine cost you?

WTF! the snizzle that comes over our region is pepping up and banding together as it leaves <_< Talk about rubbing salt in. . . that snizzle coming over from the low countries better pep up over the North Sea or else that really will be curtains on this sorry mess.

Doesn't look likely at the moment, the cluster of snizzle looks like it's decaying over the North Sea.

Things are being funnelled up the Estuary towards London better in the last hour or so, but nothing is firing over Essex and Eastwards at the moment so still nothing to get excited about. Anyone got any thoughts as to whether there's likely to be enough instability around our part of the north sea to get anything going?

Was that using todays NAE charts?? has anyone seen todays NAE charts? Definitely on fleck alert here, bits floating in the wind. . . should start getting rid of this useless NNE ( ) up the Estuary any time now. Not hopeful of much convection though with nothing exciting showing on any of the models and nothing from the MetO.

Interesting someone reporting heavy snow in Amsterdam from that batch that's progged to come here. . . just looks like a load of murk and chaff from the radar I was looking at - mostly less than 1mm precip rates. At least it wont be steered off SE down to Slushville this time. . . . . . I hope

The Shafernaker Snizzard is here! We can be proud that us lot on the forum spotted last nights disaster long before any of the agencies new what was going on The milder air mass is mixing out now and the -5c upper air should start to kick in and peg those temps down. My tiny straw that I've been clutching all week for this location is still there for tonight! We're still in a damn NNE wind at this end of the Estuary We've had 5 days of misery watching all the good stuff get steered to our SE but that wind will swing round to direct Easterly by tonight. Our window opens around 3pm today until midnight, possibly into monday. The reason I say from 3pm to midnight is because that's when the wind strength up the Estuary is going to peak, after midnight it dies a death and falls slack, so much less chance of anything decent getting pushed into London, also the upper temps are still favourable at that time. Unfortunately GFS progs weak convection for the Estuary to coincide with the winds becoming favourable which isn't great but nevertheless, the tiny straw I've been clutching all week is still there!

Urban blown torch firing up in London - now up to 2c (probably only in the very very centre though) Light snow and 2c temp is not a good recipe if you want a pasting lol :lol:

Yep and heading into CS/SW to dump on them, looks like we're just going to get transcient chaff coming out of Kent here in London. You might get the odd heavy burst down there and as ever Kent will probably do well. However the temps look like turd to me so that might put a spanner in the works, even if the precip gets going.

lol yup, and my god was anyone looking at that MetO Invent tool today? has been doing very well at picking out the main convection areas but utter disaster today. YTS boys left in charge at the MetO today while people claim back there overtime from the last 6 weeks.

How many more computer screens will I have smashed before we get rid of this damn NNE up the estuary

Yep can confirm 'flecks' hitting my face in the wind. . . But could easily be my neighbours cat taking a leak.

Is it coming from the Germans? Russia? Mars? Nope it's coming from the Channel just on our doorstep(?) Talk about stealth, what the heck? Well I assume it's coming from there, looks like it's starting to fire. . . or else where the hell is it coming from, got to be thinking it's going to happen with all the agencies still going for this.

Well said, it really is very very difficult to find out the weather forecast here in the main part of London, you never know if you're included or not, it's always the snow will hit "the london area" or "south london" when they mean surrey etc

Reckon this is the Schafernaker Snizzard a day late. . . Brace yourself guys

Yeah me too, the bulk of Londons lying snow came from wednesdays events, got lucky because the cell that delivered for us looked like dying out but just managed to pep up a bit when it came over Central London and that single cell is the main reason why the inner zones are holding their own when it comes to snow depths.

PMSL, weren't you the one telling me to stop complaining when I mentioned exactly the same thing earlier?! I'v been waiting for this sniveling little wind to change at this end of the Estuary for 4 days now But fear not! for indeed the steering winds are going to change as we go into Monday, into an Easterly then a South Easterly May not be much juice in any convection by then but at least we will be more favoured for a dollop if it's around. Could be a constant stream of light/mod snow into London on Monday/Tues - you never know

Because the onshore steering winds at the W end of the Estuary are NNE ( ) at the moment which is shearing the main convection band and keeping it pegged from moving NW