ScottSnow

Snowed on and off all day here in Gateshead. About 1-2cm of coverage. My Grandma lives near Newton Aycliffe in Co.Durham and she reports more down there around 1 inch I think she said.

Will the 18z verify with the ECMWF or will it continue to downgrade the easterly for the end of the week. Interesting model watching tonight.

GFS 00z Less chance of snow off next weeks easterly a downgrade in my opinion, but overall run is cold all the way through and I'd expect higher areas would have loads of snow by the end of it. Lets hope the ECMWF is right for next week, but if we get locked in with this pattern of northern blocking I'd imagine we will get some snow event whether its next week or further down the line. Just getting a little dissapointed as it seems to me like the cold keeps on getting pushed back day after day. Lets hope it was a milder outlier for next wed/thur/fri.

00z out to 120hrs and doesn't look as good to me, high too far south. I'm starting to get a bad feeling about this now and fear we may end up with something that doesn't amount to much. Still plenty of time to go I suppose.

It could be argued that the cold spell has started now with cold daytime temps and frost at night. How long do people think this will last for ? Anyone think it could go on till Christmas. I know the Dec 05 easterly broke down pretty quickly after initially suggesting a fairly long cold spell. We did receive a fairly good snow event here out of it though and an ice day. The biggest snow event here from the past 5 years hasn't came from an easterly we've had but the late Feb 04 northerly. Sustained heavy then moderate snow fell all night and deposited around 1ft of snow. I vaguely remember Feb 91 and have some photos and there was plenty of snow here then and that was an easterly. I'm hoping this will be a proper two week cold spell but with the GFS showing a breakdown on the 18z it may not last as long as we all want. If it comes off whats Ian Browns thoughts on this set up and the implications on his 'even larger teapot' theory. Is it just a flash in the pan ? Or are we starting to see snowier winters again after last years fairly snowy winter period. What are the implications for the rest of the winter ? I'd imagine many a winter forecast are way out already. Did any of the long range forecasters hint this might happen in December, and if so, what are there predictions for the rest of winter ?

I for once see GW's point of view. Yes the ice pack could behave differently after the loss of most of the perrenial and we could see reductions in growth due to the thinner ice around the edges of the pack at this time of year. But there would surely always be thinness around the edges no matter what year (80s, 90s etc) which could be liable to break up due to a storm or milder weather. However if 1st year ice is so 'flimsy' why have we seen an increase in the mininimum ice extent the past two years after 07. Surely if as GW points out the ice pack is now 'rotten' we would have seen the pack gradually eaten away over the summers of 08 and 09.

Yes could be argued that the cold spell is already underway with temperatures below freezing throughout the UK tonight.

Hard frost on the cars outside on the drive. In Co. Durham though I might add not Tyne and Wear.

The GFS has been suggesting this pattern (easterly, cold spell etc) for a while now and someone posted a GFS run from last saturday for today which was remarkably accurate. It is a concern that the ECMWF is not on board and that we have been here before but I personally feel that some areas will see snow next week and we will see some form of cold spell maybe not as severe as many would like. 'Nothing is certain', that is the interest with model watching and why there are so many differing opinions but it is important to keep a level head. I'll just touch on the Ian Brown subject (sorry mods), I used to use the BBC Snow Watch in 02/03 to discuss the weather and Ian was most certainly a mild ramper even a wind up merchant, I'd imagine respected members like Stratos Ferric will verify. He very rarely goes into any depth in what he says and the only reason he is given any credibility is he always backs the form horse i.e mild which is 80% of the time is the case.

I have seen the ECMWF highlighting a cold scenario with the GFS suggesting mild, with the GFS proving correct. Not sure of the dates but certainly more than once as it's generally the GFS which exagerates the atlantic and icelandic lows. The GFS seems to have sensed the cold weather for a while now so I would be inclined to go with there scenario but maybe not quite as severe. Certainly for my location things are looking fairly promising for snow.

Nothings sure in this game !!! But hopefully this time it may just come off.

I've been model watching since 2002 so have been through all the 'letdowns' that we have had in the past. I said nearly a week ago that a cold spell was on the cards and it looks as though that this is still the case. I'm trying not to get too excited but it is difficult. Like KW said the possible worse case scenario is inversion cold which can only be a good sign. Hopefully it won't go pear shaped and it will prove that we can still have a good cold spell in the 'even larger teapot'.

When you consider I said last week there is a chance of an E,ly followed by a N,ly around mid month and thats exactly what the 18Z is showing. Now im not 100% certain this will actually happen but it remains a possibility. The problem with this thread is many have the attitude of "it will never happen because of our previous bad luck". However this isn't really scientific and the models couldn't give a monkeys about our past disappointments. If it wasn't possible then it wouldn't be modelled by the GFS! Now im not saying we should always believe the GFS F.I charts. However it does become tiresome that they are so easily dismissed. I wonder at times why some bother following the models!

Theres always one !!! The pattern of cold coming from our north east still persists on the 00z, http://www.wetterzentrale.net/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Sleeting in Gateshead. I suspect it must be a tad colder than they anticipated as they forecast rain in the town / city centres. It was 2 degrees celsius on the car thermometer. Would like to here reports from Consett / Tow Law areas of County Durham as I imagine there could be a covering up there

I find the best thing to look for in FI is the general overall pattern over a number of runs. The pattern I have noticed is some source of cold coming from our north east later in the month. It may be a shortlived event, it could be something memorable or it may not happen at all but the signs are there. Only time will tell.

Sleeting in Gateshead. I suspect it must be a tad colder than they anticipated as they forecast rain in the town / city centres. It was 2 degrees celsius on the car thermometer. Would like to here reports from Consett / Tow Law areas of County Durham as I imagine there could be a covering up there.

I have to say Gray-Wolf that you seem to have a very blinkered view on things. I think if you had a little more balance in your posts then people might give you a bit more credit.

Sorry I don't think you understand, I did not say the graphs were any good for looking at multi year ice, the graphs show sea ice extent / area which is all kinds of ice (1st year, 2nd year, 10th year etc). If 'since 2007 the the thick older ice has been in rapid decline' why has there been an INCREASE in the minimum for the past two years ? Am sorry Iceberg but your not making sense and I do not want to clog up the thread trying to get through to you !!!

Yes the downward trend is a major issue, however both of the graphs I gave a link to combine both multi year and and first year ice. I don't think there are any graphs which just show multi year ice however this link gives us some idea of concentration / thickness - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png After the record loss of 2007 if we were going to see any increase from that minimum (which we have) it would of had to of been first year ice anyhow, and now after a second year of improvement the ice will be even stronger.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.11.html As the graph shows sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is doing reasonably well so Id have to treat that report with a pinch of salt.

Just out of curiosity - what is the past 6 years average if you discount 2007 ? Also - Ice extent seems to be increasing faster now after the lull after the minimum was reached.

I had reports off a friend of heavy snow at Tow Law which is around 1000ft this morning. I don't know if it settled.

Heavy snow for the last 20 minutes now. 2 inch covering. This easterly has now delivered.