Troubleatmill

Looks similar to the 06 and that just sinks it towards north africa

Crawling out on wetter: Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 12Z WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE Wetterkarten GFS Europe 12Z

Close to a link up with the Arctic high, will it make it!

Looking east rather than west and that main core of the Trop PV is marching west from northeastern Russia toward Scandinavia. Can't complain where there cold uppers are if that came to fruition! T144 and T240

I think the set up that has been recently is perfect, the default is west based based with the west cloudy and cool and further east warm and sunny.....refreshing change

Totally mate, to be honest the wife is starting to do my head in looking through the window every five mins, If it gets any worse ill have to let her in!!

I find it ironic that looking past this week and the trend for a breakdown of sorts to less cold conditions, that it can be blamed on the lack! of a Canadian vortex, so the block to our north makes a rather speedy move west in its absence . How many times does this chuffin seemingly endless vortex scupper our winters? Now we get the mother of all easterlies and the darn thing ain't there to block or hold off the speedy westward progression. that's my rather simple take on it anyway Still an amazingly cold week coming up!

Not in a flash though, hence why uppers are shown to be less cold but all snow event for most. To coin phrase, think of cold air as treacle, run warm water over it and it doesnt just wash off instantly

Total respect to you strat experts for whats coming up. Its up to the weather now. If it doesnt happen then so be it but that wont make you guys wrong, how does the saying go? You can lead a horse to water.....??

Not sure there has been a complete flip for this one? For days they have been flipping from run to run and the ens have been scattered, its just been our hope that they would firm up on a cold solution. Must admit though a couple of days ago i thought the worst outcome would be for HP over us and not whats showing this morning.

So it could be right it could wrong? Bit like the models overall i guess! ?

Sure i read that the GEM is the top performer over the last 30 days. Problem i have with that is that its for the NH as a whole. Our tiny little corner is probably up there as one of the most turbulent/changable areas so it maybe way off with us but right for the other 90% if that makes sense. Or am i talking twoddle?

They sure did mate back in the good old days on here ?

Personally take more notice of ITV now anyhow as they are now with the MET. BBC weather and especially their graphics have gone pants since they started using the meteogroup for their forecasts. Still use some met office data but it looks like its mostly from the BOM!

He was responding to cold potentially going into france further south if the high sits over us..hence Pulled north as the high pulls north

Looking at the O6z could it be they dont have a handle on the talked about QTR ( ie will it happen) rather than the SSW as very little is showing on the O6z Op

Dont think you went to the true tops backtrack?, myself and iceaxe crampon are up there regular and this weekend just gone walking over glaramara and great end there were drifts well over a meter and level snow of around 20cm above 800m where the wind hadnt blasted it ?

Yep totally agree, we have seen this kind of flow before & not too long ago either (in the last fortnight). If you did well then you will probably do well again, if not then think we are waiting for some HLB to deliver, 200 or 300m will be the snowline id of thought

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Agree with you, and looking through the GEFS ens nothing has changed this morning. This week cold as we know, week two mixed bag of PM air and warm sectors then a steady number of ens are sniffing at some quite eye watering HLB for winters lap of honour. Prety good 00z over all. Lets see if the ECM starts anything right at the back of its run but think T240 is still a little too today, we'll see soon enough

There is a definate vibe in there nowadays isnt there mate, its ok for them to talk about the south east all day long though pfft

Just to level this out, if this year doesnt deliver for some of us in the north west of England, its been bad for snow all over the uk for a number of years unless you live at 300m up north which 99.9% dont. I hope you guys do get snow i really do, for me just for proof we still can get snow at low levels in this stunning and beautiful island of ours south north and in the middle

I would say that going off the first chart, those of us in Kent away from the coast would be best placed for a decent fall of nice 'dry' snow.

Yeh that does look unusual mate, we get used to seeing this kind of warming showing up around siberia, hopefully someone from the strat thread can shed some light on what it may mean, if anything at all?

Not great is it, back in the 80's we used to get two or three falls per winter (even if it didnt last a day) and i thought that was pretty dire compared to the rest of the country. But these days every event is very marginal which means cold rain for us on the lowlands. Even in 2010 we were lucky by a streamer setting up for an hour which meant we werent the only place on that famous sat photo without snow, i have had no lying snow since that day. Never mind, i guess at least we get the sun in summer....oh wait hang on ?