mackerel sky
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Posts posted by mackerel sky
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THe heavier stuff is just starting to edge into our region-
So everyone note their temps & DPS & start monitoring for the first signs of them dropping. I would say 11am is the estimated time
to start dropping, but into the afternoon the situation becomes condusive.
Changed my weather station display over from temperature to dewpoint. In the past half hour its stopped rising, and is beginning to fall already. Hit a high of 3.2C about 40 mins ago, now down to 2.8C. So Steve is right, dew point is the one to watch alongside the radar.
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Sleet has turned to snow here, just as I was expecting it to die a death!
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Bigger flakes mixed in here.
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Light sleet here, its trying though.
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Me too, let's just hope the pub run hasn't been on the sauce tonight.
It was soul destroying this morning seeing expected temperatures of 5C at the weekend. That was game over. And a chance of some light snow as the cold air wins out at 3am on Monday morning. This is not a scenario that is acceptable! We do need some dank miserable cold weather to establish, and the wind to subside. Failed fronts tinkering with the west will do nicely with the wind dropping. Even with -5, -6C uppers and a breeze with sunny days you are looking at daytime maxima of 3-6C. Overcast, stagnant air is what you want to set things up nicely.
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I thought the 18z looked like a decent upgrade for Sunday - relative to the last 36hrs worth of output. Apologies I shouldn't really be here, I live just over the border (5 miles from N Cambs/Beds) into the very quiet Midlands thread.
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Can someone explain why, on the Will it Snow feature, does it say that Brum has a 70% chance of snow on Friday but Nuneaton and Coventry are both showing 0%?
Take those odds down to Betfred. Or wait for the next run, where it might be 0% for both localities or 60% for both, or you wait until 24 hours to go, and Betfred will give you 2-1 or 7-5.
This is hypothetical, and other betting shops are available.
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I think when the GFS is at odds with the other models and goes into default raging Atlantic mode someone needs to press the on-off button.
Within regards Gimmesomesnow's post above, I agree that from the third week of February, the prospect of long lived snow on the ground eases significantly. You can get good dumps, but the minute the sun comes out for any length of time, even if the temperature in the shade is freezing - poof - and its gone.
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Here in Rushden (though I wasn't here) about 4pm there was a temporary covering. In Bedford it was pish, just 10-15 minutes worth of heavy horizontal sleet. When I got home we had some sleet about 6pm, now the temperature is up at 4.6C and was chucking it down with rain a few minutes ago. I'm quite surprised given that the uppers are -2C to -3C that this warm sector is so pronounced in early February. See what the northerly brings, but I can easily see max temperatures of 4-5C inland unless you are under a streamer. Given the synoptics and 850s that should be more indicative of late February not early February.
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Rain just started here, way too mild 5.6C, dewpoint 2C.
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Hi Tamara,
Good point you made in the Mod Thread re. the suggestion from some members that the ECM op is "out on its own" (when it has a fair degree of ensemble support) and at odds with MET and GFS.
A glance at the so called "Big 3" suggests that GFS are indeed out on their own, at t120, and as I've just stated we've been advised by our MET source that they themselves dont pay too much attention to any model into the 2nd week of its run, only very basic guidance, indeed least of all the GFS!
Regards,
Tom.
Very quiet in the Midlands thread, but the MetOffices longer outlook, starting towards the end of next week seems to support to ECM output with an easterly setting in
UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Feb 2013 to Saturday 16 Feb 2013:
Cold and bright on Thursday, wintry showers in the east, with frequent, heavy showers for North Sea coasts, and the risk of hail and snow. More persistent rain, sleet and snow spreading eastwards across the UK on Friday, with further wintry showers following. Into the start of next weekend, wintry showers become largely confined to eastern areas, but then turning more unsettled through the weekend and into the following week, with spells of rain and hill snow crossing the the UK from the west. Often windy, with gales at times in exposed western areas. Widespread overnight frosts at first, with some icy patches, and temperature widely below average, but then temperatures recovering a touch, to become close to or just a little below average towards the end of the period.
Even on the GFS, towards the end of the hi-res run we see something that doesn't often occur. It usually occurs to our east over the continent - that is a mild sector being totally infilled. Lots to look forward to in my opinion, initially it will be the NW of the country until midweek. For the boring Midlands thread, the Cheshire gap streamer will get going on some of those days. They can get into Hertfordshire and west Essex! Thereafter, If we take the MetO outlook and ECM, something is on the cards.
Night night.
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bbc also goes for light snow showers early tues, winds seem a bit westerly, then a warm sector tues evening, then winds NNE on wednesday, useless direction that
Good direction for this part of the Midlands!
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Surely even the precipitation intensity of the wet variety has been reduced for Friday into Saturday? Now just looks like a bog standard 24 hour toppler after some rain - a frost and cold day on Saturday with the risk of ice then mild by Sunday.... ECM supports this now as well. Even the FAX charts took away a trough on Saturday. But still at +72 hrs, still liable to change. Can't see a gale force NEly as the 'low' pulls away now. Low in inverted commas as I would just class it as a 'disturbance' now.
ECM is interesting at +168 because that says snow to me. But its a week away. Not looking at anything classical here, but as long as the Azores high doesn't extend any further east, and with heights slightly building to our NE it will be on the cool side. I would always say we've got a good 3 week window left, as once you get to the last week of February whilst the opportunity of good snowfall still remains - the minute Mr sun comes out, the snow can disappear very quick, even if the official screen temperature is 0C. I remember the end of February 2010, in the shade we had 10 inches of snow, in the sun accumulations overnight would soon get slushy and go. Not so if it stays overcast.
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Can't believe how mild it is out there tonight. 12C here at 9pm, but 14C on the Lincolnshire coast!
Just wrong!
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in my part of bedford i usually do well for frosts, but totally crap for snow, only got 2 inches last sunday, and all i had tonight was a bit of rain
If its any comfort this snow isn't really adding a lot. Very slushy. It was nice snow when it started and I was optimistic. But on lying snow it has settled fairly well - might have even refreshed the piste in Rushden Hall Park for one last sledge.
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is that it, 2 hours of drizzle and then 15 mins of moderate rain
what an anti climax
Typically in Rushden we are 0.5-1C colder than in Bedford, my son is at nursery in Melchborne and the one morning this week when the cloud did break, the car thermometer read -11C at 8am there. Once down Kimbolton Road into Bedford town centre it was -2C. Rushden is a much bigger town nowadays, but on a level playing field does get more snow. More rural and 200ft higher.
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Back to where we started in Rushden. 1-2cm early on that got washed away by the sleet between 10pm-12am (other than on top of the existing snow) to now 1-2cm again. Could do with it picking up a bit.
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Meanwhile in Leicester.......
Rain.
Obviously if our correspondants in Nottingham have had a good time tonight, and Leicester is in between I didn't expect much. We started off with good snow, then bad snow, then sleet, then back to snow. So I'm surprised its been all rain in Leicester?!?!
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Got proper snow again here settling. Quite odd because you'll have a patches of unthawed snow on the patio which has a fresh inch on it, and nothing on the wet area around that... On the grass were it never really thawed it looks nice and fresh. Down to 0.5C from a high of 1.6C when it was sleet a couple of hours ago.
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Big flakes and some evaporitive cooling taking place, dropped down to 0.8C - 1.5C 15 minutes ago.
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I'm with Dave (TEITS) on this. Its extremely rare that you can support a serious snow event with uppers of 0C on low ground. I was very sceptical. There have been times - especially February 2009 when those with snow cover got good falls with -2C (including myself). But logic does dictate that its a big ask to have no variation in temperature between the height at about 1200m down to the surface. Snow cover does increase this chance, and after February 2009 I threw the rulebook away, having regular heavy snowfall with -2C or -3C 850 HPa's. But 0 is a stupid call.
Sleet, or the new term "Rain Snow Mix" is currently the order of the day here.
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Even the radar seems to have fallen apart on the last update. So I hold no promise now of the sleet going back to snow.
Actually is has gone back to snow, but damaged goods now.
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Even the radar seems to have fallen apart on the last update. So I hold no promise now of the sleet going back to snow.
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Turning a bit more back to snow here, but the damage has been done! Snow was settling nicely 8-9.30pm. Other than the lying snow from the proper snowfall events, you can erase it.
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th February 2013 17:00hrs>
in Regional
Posted
Not as marginal as they were on some earlier runs, 00z didn't have them above -2 at any point. But I feel fairly optimistic. I remember one day in February 2009, it was a wednesday - we'd had a fair bit of snow from thurs/fri the pervious and it rained for most of the day (though surprising it didn't affect much of the snow cover), turned to snow about teatime it dumped about 5 inches. That was under similar circumstances (-2 uppers), I kept meaning to have a trawl through the chart archive for analogs.