Cal

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-102.png?6 Hmm, is the shortwave much further east on this run and being drawn into the parent low in Russia? .

I see the rollercoaster ride continues with the extended model output , expect more variations over the next couple of days , strat alert issued by Tokyo STRATALERT TOKYO 07 DEC2009 0200 UTC30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 4 DEC1. COLD MINUS 79 75N 30E, WARM MINUS 35 58N 170E, LOW 218 78N 95E, HIGH 400 55N 150W.2. CONDITIONS AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FEILD, POLAR VOLTEX IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TAYMYR PENINSULA. COLD AIR LIES OVER THE BARENTS SEA. WARM AIR LIES OVER THE BERING SEA. REGARDING ZONAL MEAN FIELD, EASTERLY WIND IS NOT OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE STRATOSPHERE OVER THE POLAR REGION.3. STRATALERT STARTS. MINOR WARMING HAS STARTED AT 30-HPA. TEMPERATURE OVER THE EASTERN SIBERIA HAS INCREASED WITH MAXIMUM 28 DEGREES FROM 27 NOV TO 4 DEC.REMARK: THE HEIGHT DATA SHOULD BE READ IN DECAMETERS ADDING 20 KILOMETERS.= You'll have to ask the experts what this implicate further down the line!

For cold & snow it's as good as it gets http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-276.png?12

Forum meltdown? http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Much better ridging from the 12hrs GFS, looks on course for a good un . http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-150.png?12

Uk Meto not bad

Maybe Nick but that Artic High ridging down is a whopper with some very cold air in the mix. http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-180.png?6

It's all moves in the right direction, to see such models runs with so much cold air being moved westwards in the 'christmas pudding' so early on in the season is very encouraging, whether the UK taps into the very cold airmass is another matter , be nice for a change to see the whole of the UK involved instead of a few isolated corners!

General evolution of the pub run is roughly the same, albeit a slight delay with the cold, which is expected, how far the cold air moves westwards is another matter but there is at last some general agreement in the longer term, and drier hopefully too !

Seems the Parallel run is the cherry pick of this mornings F.I. output, not surprisingly http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfsnh-0-372.png?6 http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-1-372.png?6 -18* Isotherm on the coast of Norfolk in a near gale easterly :lol: :lol: . Hopefully we will have some settled weather in the not too distant future .

Good ol pub run , not bothered about the orientation of the high at least it may allow some dry weather for a change , does look a classic though :lol: .

Synoptic Porn , Lol http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html As much as 20-30cm over higher ground .

Aye, normal service resumes from the GFS 06hrs run, but it was a fair outlier. http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pl?type=ens;date=20091201;time=00;file=t2mLincolnshire

As posted earlier in the thread, maybe the models are coming up with the forecasted solutions of both the NAO & AO to go extremly negative, be interesting if it came of , there are quite rightly a lot of cautious posts, how many times have people believed major cold projections shown in F.I. only to be let down at +72hrs!! Maybe, just maybe the models are latching onto something remarkable in the 'christmas pudding' cough, cough , maybe the 'new' 'christmas pudding' is on the other boot :lol:!!

With the majority of predictions going for a -NAO & a -AO in the near future i find it hard to believe the former (-NAO) looking at the model runs . The latter (-AO) i can well believe as shown by the models Strange thing this weather lark :lol: .

Ch, how accurate are the MJO Forecasts? I seem to re-call a couple of weeks ago it was predicted to stall in phase 3 and meander about? But no, of it went and is now mid way through phase 6!!

One for the more experienced here, with the MJO heading into phase 7 what implications may this have on our weather? http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

Ooh, made it into the top 10

Good luck with the forecast Stewart, extremly well documented.

Mild start, becoming progressively colder later in the winter! Dec, First week wet & windy temps near normal, possible cold snap mid month, though drier, towards the end of the month wet & windy with a cold feel to it, hill snow an improving possibilty, maybe towards lower levels in the north & west. Temps ave for the month with rainfall slightly above ave. Jan, Starting of on a cool/cold note with precipitation again n&w seeing the best of any snowfall/rain, again mid month should see a drier interlude with high pressure in control, later on as the high is based to the n/e the atlantic has several attempts to bring the weather in, again west is wettest with the possibility of some decent snowfall for western and nothern areas, milder air sometimes making in roads into southern britain, but with a southerly tracking jet there is a higher than normal chance of a slider/southerly tracking low which mey give a bonus snowfall to the midlands/south. Temps slightly below ave with rainfall ave. Feb, Drier to start the month as high pressure is not far away, possibly again to the north or east of the uk, wintry showers along exposed eastern coasts, low pressure towards central europe should keep the high in situ for a while, drier and brighter in the n&w, towards mid month atlantic lows come again up against cold continental air, initially the cold air wins but not before the south and west may experience some notable snowfall, later this tranfers over the the northern & eastern half of the uk as milder air begins to establish itself from the atlantic, again some notable snowfall from the mids north, eventually the milder air returns to all parts briefly, at the latter end of the month high pressure in charge with some low minima at night. Temps below ave, rainfall below ave.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather Joe B seems to think his winter LRF is right on cue with the UK/France a battleline between cold and warm air.

4.7 Please

My head says an 8.0 please Bob :lol:, my heart says 5.5 :lol: .

Do you fancy storm chasing on the WEST side of the UK either mon or tues? Or whereverer the radar takes us?