Cal
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Everything posted by Cal
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What's the chances of freezing rain for a time tonight? Slightly to the north & east of the Humber the temps are hovering around freezing with dewpoints roughly similar, to the south of the Humber we have widespread frost & low level mist with temps similar but dewpoints slightly lower, as the cloud and precip move in the upper air temps rise a couple of degrees, could be tricky on the surfaces for a time?
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North East England Cold Spell Discussion
Cal replied to shuggee's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Right Desert, wrong tent -
Yes these are stunning runs Steve, it even carries on http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-324.png?18
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White Xmas anyone :lol:?? Long shot but the signs are very encouraging, what a snowfest :lol: ! http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-2-216.png?18
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This is a fantastic chart for prolonged snow and if the low over france can make it sufficiently east then this cold spell is far from giving in :lol: . http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-150.png?18 Possibility of a decent scandi high? http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-162.png?18
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Why are people so downbeat? 1040 Greenie high, main trough over Southern Scandi and a very unstable N/NWesterly originating from the Pole at 168hrs!! This is AFTER a progged unstable easterly for 24-36hrs That is an excellent chart for cold and snowy conditions.
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Is this to be associated with drier, colder air coming in of the continent Steve? I've had a quick look and dew points do fall of on the Hi Res model but drier conditions prevail.
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Model Output Discussion - Tuesday 20:25 -->
Cal replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks for that Stuart , at last we see a major cold spell within our grasp and with precipitation thanks to the STJ, it would be sweet to see a nationwide snow event rather than the localised offerings we have had over the last few winters. The ECM is a cracker this morning :blush: . -
Peach <_<
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12hrs UKMetO 144hrs
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12hrs UKMetO at 72hrs 00hrs UKMeto at 72hrs
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Cracking MetO update at midday today, confidence has to be rising on a cold spell for next week, i'd rate it as 60-40 in favour at the moment :ph34r:
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I'd expect the ECM to lean towards the GFS,GEFS & GEM solutions either tonight or tomorrow am, not saying the ECM will show the full monty as per GFS/Parallel runs but i did sneakily manage to get some 'inside info' on model consensus. They are favouring solutions at this moment in time towards the GFS. Please don't ask for the source of information, i'm not going to bite the hand that feeds .
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Well, well, the Parallel run clearly gives a superb southerly tracking jet in F.I. giving a cold spell right through the run with some good snow accumulations into the mix.
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Yikes!! Estimated windchill of this??
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Here she comes
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There's bound to be the odd wobble with the models but reading G.P's post last night sums it up perfectly well, i see a few are on tenderhooks this morning though quite rightly after the let down of yesteryears. Again the Parallel run this morning is simply stunning .
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Parallel run is simply amazing in F.I. talk about re-loads !!
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Broadly similar at 156, only thing is the cold air is delayed slightly. Cold air ''Inbound''
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UK Meto 144hr.
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Probably the finest run i've seen in F.I. truly remarkable those synoptics. http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-384.png?12 The finale'
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http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-360.png?12 Synoptic heaven? .
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The 0600hrs Parallel run isn't bad either , rather more a snowier picture in F.I. on this run, classic battleground being set up .
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Artic floodgates to be unleashed? http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-1-126.png?6
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http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfsnh-0-114.png?6 Much better, the shortwave is further east which may allow both the uk high to retrogress north and the artic high south . The atlantic is a tad more west on this one.
