Cal

Some half decent echoes now appearing to the south of the region.

As the band moves further north then you should be ok, i wouldn't expect to much in the way of amounts, however if you get more it's a nice surprise.

Very light snow now. NAE looking ok for yorks n lincs.

Lovely jubley

Very light snow here but nothing showing on the radar returns?

Bit of a re-iteration from last nights posting, whilst some will feel down that the latest model runs have downgraded things for those in the east of our region, it should be noted that if things are corrected even further west on later model runs, then the chances of convective snowfall from the east increase, the cold air is dense and takes some shifting, one could even say that it is biulding in this side of the country, creating our own cold pool if you like, couple this with a stubborn high pressure over the Scandi region and with a hint of regression west then short term pain is better for the longterm cold & snow potential!

Been around here long enough to know them totals or rather Precipitation charts are a waste of time from the GFS unless within 24hrs or less, the high pressure currently to the N/E isn't going anywhere fast, couple this with low temps across the UK i feel it aint going anywhere if anything it will build as slider lows become more evident across the southern half of the UK, initially it looks like the west of the UK will benefit wrt to snow, however the Atlantic normally has at least a couple of attempts at ingression so all is not lost, the key is here i think that should the high hold we are going to see some major cold towards the latter week or so of the month, and being towards the north n east, some places will benefit not only from the atlantic trying to gain access but also major artic air from the north/east, n i'm looking forward to the latter to see the convective potential of the N.Sea when the really cold uppers arrive

Light snow shower passing through, a good 2-3" inch on the fields, not a bad effort.

Things have pepped up a little, band to the n/w has intensified a little over the last 15mins or so. Tmorrow looking ok as well, looks like we could be in the sweeter spot so to speak.

Very, very light snow here in Scunny.

Had a slight covering during the wee hours around a cm at a guess, not sure what will be falling later this afternoon, looks marginal more esp the second band tomorrow.

Colder uppers are gradually working there way in from the east, if the showers keep up, then they should gradually turn more and more to snow for people living close to the coast, any that are reaching more than 25-30 miles inland should be all snow by now.

Be surprised if it keeps up any intensity more than 25-30miles inland, we've had a few spits n spots in the wind in the last hour or so, the wind is too slack to push much further inland.

This could be a historic spell of weather coming up in the next 10 days or more, with snow covered areas and winds dropping light there will be some very low temps overnight, good to see the GFS smelling the coffee (finally) somewhat alongside the Euro's, still it all has to verify, however, the potential for cold weather and snow has vastly improved today, i'm surprised Nick hasn't given today an 11/10 on the optimism scale , after some pretty impressive cyclonic conditions where the jet stream is to the south of the U.K. we are left with an Anti - Cyclonic pressure in just about the perfect area for some very, very low minima's in areas with snowfield cover.

Possibly one of the best ECM runs I have seen in a long, long time for snow amounts, risky situations, but huge potential for some serious snowfall if this run verifies!

Seen this many, many a time when the GFS picks a trend up only to drop it for a few runs, however, slowly but surely it backtracks, someone earlier mentioned it was good at 10days + in certain situations, but for me the ECM & UK Met O 90% of the time will verify higher than the GFS in the 3-6 day timeframe.

Certainly some mouth watering eye candy in F.I. http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-360.png?0

Merry Xmas to all. High pressure building in the low res output of the GFS, (have we been here before, lol)

Bit of a confusing picture there Nick considering the model output. I believe it will become a lot more clearer as we head into the new year.

Brilliant post there Recretos, can you learn a bit more about the Troposphere (cough, cough) & do a degree in Metreology as we could all perhaps benefit !

Not quite... it's a secondary channel low, wouldn't get too excited re snow potential till <24/48hrs but as you say the risk is there and growing. 00hrs UKMO not too bad neither for temps to be slowly eroding away after Xmas day.

Wouldn't take much of a southwestward shift to leave the majority of teh UK in a cold continental feed, fascinating model watching atm.

Many thanks for the continued updates Ian, nice to have a bit of inside info from the Met O!

Clearly some differences between the GFS & ECM in the medium term. GFSECM

Tis a bit bizzare with the comments from M Hugo n Ian F re -easterly potential although Ian F has stressed it is a minority possible outcome, with charts consistently showing on the GFS runs (shown below) something of a broad s/westerly airflow in 5-7 days time. http://modeles.meteo...h-0-168.png?6?6 Would have to be a big turnaround from the GFS to start showing the slider & easterly options?