Cal

Things pepping up again out west !!

At the latest fag installment and footprint taken i would say around 8cm, could top 10 by the end of it.

Mod to heavy snow now, quite intense, looks fantastic

Yes it looks good for the next hour or so and i see the heavy band is becoming wider over W/S Yorks which is a good sign, expect snow in this area for at least a couple of hours.

Cold front getting it's act together now over South/West Yorks, Mids. Around 5cm's out here with heavier stuff due over the next hour, could top 8-10cm's by 11-12.

If the chart were to verify, then possibly the higher risk of slider lows coming into force over the uk transfering the energy south & south east wards.

Also the Artic high is much more prominant on this run with a more amplified mid atlantic ridge, subtle change here from the GFS

I'd agree with this, the modelling of the Artic high has the jet tilted on a more nw-se axis on this mornings 0600 hrs GFS run leading to later in the run a cool/cold PM air, thus enabling the main trough to dig deeper into europe and a mid atlantic ridge slowly gaining northward momentum, as Steve M has said it's all about timing and how fast the low comes of the eastern seaboard.

Bingo, quite a tantalising run here from the ECM, which model will be right?

Not as amplified as last nights ECM, but still on track.

Can you two keep your little disputes aside? The models are showing very different synoptics from what they was 4-5 days ago, this creating a decent buzz around, however one or two of the wiser folk know when that train is coming and it ain't at 202, 252 or 300hrs! The whole range of solutions the NWP is going to throw out is ridiculous to the sublime, soo many twists and turns will these minor warmings have, oh and when the big one comes into model focus then Ha , crikey forum meltdown (maybe!). Looking good over the last day or so, love these battles with a NW/SE jet and a cold continental air over the UK, will it, won't it snow scenario's with regards to low pressure out to the west. http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012010718-0-264.png?18 Let the rollercoaster begin

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-240.GIF?03-0 hmm, that chart has soo much potential from a cold perspective, will it continue in future runs?

Judging by the GFS 0600 hrs run there ain't a lot on offer at the moment from a cold perspective, brief ridges with alternating PM/TM air, fairly dry in the south at times esp in the latter half of the run. You do wonder if any real pattern change is going to happen a little too late this year, still a long way to go i know, however not a lot in the medium term.

Hi Essan, for the record he is predicting notable storms inc these dates 11th-13th with a southerly tracking storm (english channel), 25th-27th possible snowstorm as atlantic low (milder air) comes up against cold air across the UK. Quite a contrasting month.

Thanks Steve, very slight trend downwards, nothing major in the offering within the next couple of weeks, ties in with the MetO updates, i hope they change sooner rather than later!!

Ta Phil, generally good agreement apart from the last 3rd.

Agree on that one Ian, certainly in the short to medium term. GFS Ensembles for Lincs (12hrs) again in the mild kilter (op run) apart from between the 7-9th Jan. Nothing too mild and nothing too cold, the mean not a lot to write home about, one or two members jumping on the cold theme right at the end. http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20111228/12/t850Lincolnshire.png ECM Ensembles, anyone now what time they are out?

Still a thick frost on the ground here and surprised there are not more reports of freezing rain!

Northern edge has jumped again in the last 10mins esp on the eastern flank due to the pivotal movement, maybe as far north as Lincoln on the eastern side?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif 985mb to this below in 24hrs? Hmm... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 930mb!!! :help:

Been a while... any chance of an update of your usual excellent analysis GP? !!

Thanks for that Murcie Boy, one hell of a forecast is that!

RJS/BFTP JC+SO ... 16 NOV, 13 DEC, 9 JAN, 6 FEB Full moon 21 NOV, 20-21 DEC, 18-19 JAN, 17 FEB N Max 25 NOV, 20-21 DEC, 16 JAN, 12-13 FEB weaker "R" events about four days later than N Max SC+JO ... 1-2 DEC, 29 DEC, 26-27 JAN, 23 FEB new moon 5 DEC, 3 JAN, 2 FEB, 3 MAR S Max ... 7 DEC, 2 JAN, 30 JAN, 26-27 FEB another cycle of weaker "R" events four days later than S Max What's all the coding such as JC+SO etc?

Good luck with it RJS & BFTP. Sounds a tad chilly that one .

Good luck to him, a good call on his first prediction, as others have said, an open mind is needed, let's see if he can consistently come up with the goods.