Cal

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-186.png?6 Intersting development in the latter part of the hi-res 06 GFS is there some energy finally heading s/e?

That's a brilliant post Gibby! Bit of a down to earth reality showing over the next 10 days or so, however, most of us can remember the synoptic output from Nov/Dec 09 thinking what an earth are the Met O long range forecasts on about? Slowly but surely the ensembles showed it, yet the Met O kept banging on about below ave temps at the end of the month into dec09, it never came out on the 'control run' till mid/late Nov 09, yet 95% on here were adamant it wouldn't happen and were confused as to why when the models kept churning out the mild stuff.... You speak what you see, so fair play...until the models agree on a pattern wherby the forum goes into meltdown then you carry on kid well old man !

Ah, is there anything in this theory to back it up? After all this is the Tech Model thread....

Steady moderate rain here again , i do notice that the S.E. Lincs area a sferic has shown in the last half hour close to the Wash before 2pm as well !

I'm sure i heard a distant rumble , your right it's not on, no thunderstorms before 2pm is shocking , oh well tomorrow and weds to look forward to !

Another beefy cell fired up to the west of here now giving of sferics, seems to be a right old breeding ground here!!

Nice cell popped up in last half hour well to the S.S.W of here, somethings brewing just to the north west of Lincoln.

I have checked and rechecked, unless my bearings are totally out of kilter with the UK then the precip band in the N.Sea is moving a more SW direction.

North West? You sure...

Mod to Heavy snow here now, approx 6cm of new snow.

Not so sure about that Lewis, as the high pressure builds from the easT then the energy should transfer more SW.

Approx 4cm of fresh snow here already, not a bad little episode this one!!

Main precip band in the N.Sea now taking a SSW direction, not be long before the energy starts transferring south and slightly westwards. Snow getting heavier!!

A good cm or so now fallen in around an hour with the last 20mins mod to heavy !! Couple of pics.

At least a couple according to the radar returns, at a rough guess around 4 hrs...

Snow becoming moderate in nature and quite intense, bit like a re-run the other day!

Scunny, N.Lincs.

An update for you guys further south, the main preip band is just getting going here and it is snow.

Very light snow here

That's the general assesment around here, whilst not quite the 15cm's you have had big boy, we still have around 5-7cm on the ground, generally temps have been well down on the norm for the last week or so and it's set to continue, last year we was spoilt by the low temps and snowfall during late Nov and most of Dec and maybe some have a little empathy for what happened last winter, i dunno, but this for us in the far north east mids it has turned out for the better albeit a reversal of last year! Why is the entrenched cold so hard to model and predict? Is it that every, single one of the major developed countries find it so hard to forecast due to a lack of data input from certain areas? Is it bliss ignorance that despite ongoing differences, that we cannot share such information from all around the world? Every detail is vital be it from the mid Atlantic or the Siberian Penninsula. Why do the models struggle with a Russian/Siberian high set up so close to mid/west Europe? Any way back to a possible snow event for some thurs/fri, what is going to happen when the warm front moves across colder continental air?

Slow thaw taking place, i see some impressive low dewpoints kicking in from east anglia southwards as the cold, dry continental air feeds in, fog lifted and finally the sun is making a brief appearance. currently 1.7*C.

Explain this one, currently snowing on DN17 at 01:15hrs, the wind according to xc weather is southerly/southeasterly, i've watched a line of showers from 0055hrs from north of the humber travel south to where my postcode is, snow blowing in the wind from east to west???

The general consensus is for the Scandi high to retrogress towards Greenland and then a notable trough digging down the N.Sea, bringing in a more North Easterly type pattern, whilst temps do not look bitterly cold there is more precipitation about from these events and that can mean somewhere can receive a lot of snow over the next couple of weeks should it pan out as the models are looking. One final last bow here snow just become moderate with some rather large flakes!!

And still very lightly snowing :lol: , though i can hear that inevitable & annoying drip, drip coming from the roof!!

Good call by the Met O on snow depths, even if the timing was slightly earlier than expected looking at the models. Up early to take the kids sledging in the morning !!