Duane S.

Had to zoom off to work and back to pick something up, North of Dorchester. Great seeing the sky on the way back to the coast. Saw a couple of bright flashes and a big CG out to sea. Looks good. Big drops of rain just starting to fall

Rarely am I pulled out of my aestivation to come on here in the summer but I have to say it looks quite ripe down here for some decent cracks later on The sky has cleared very nicely indeed and has a pretty convective look and feel about it.

The radar has had ppn over me for the past 3 and a half hours. Not a thing has fallen from the sky in that time

So far for the SW, the ppn intensity has held up much more (and fizzled out less) than was forecast. The radar has it currently heading over me, I await to see what, if anything, falls from the sky. Often the longer the gap between the radar showing and the ppn hitting, the more chance of snow. Especially with the current conditions, not only does snow to the ground fall more slowly than rain but we have an undercutting strong south easterly wind against a front swinging up from the south west

A warm up is happening, maybe turning very mild into next weekend. I could certainly see the ECM being somewhere near right. I’d love to be wrong but I struggle to see a model turnaround in that respect occurring now. Yes, bring on summer etc etc, more than any other year. Yes, I can’t wait either but... i will have to as it’s still only mid Feb and I intend to see out the winter weather chasing season for a few more weeks as I always do by, well, chasing winter weather! I don’t believe winter has finished with us and will be looking at the end of the month into March as surely the next window of opportunity. I am torn though. There seem to be equally good arguments for continuation of a more default westerly influence (perhaps more settled than zonal in the south though) into Meteorological Spring and for a return to a colder spell. The strat influence has probably got a bit left in the tank yet even as the SPV revs up, combine that with the Pacific activity we’ve seen right through February and a late potent winter blast can’t be ruled out. A 2018 beast seems a massive stretch up against the background signals but maybe something like an MLB that gains enough northerly traction month end to bring easterlies back to the southern half of the UK into March has to be a genuine possibility.

Exactly how I’m reading it BB. If the timings slightly off or some amplitude has been under-estimated, it could be enough to make a difference here.

Form horse surely now a bit of a warm up as we get to mid month. However, the 12Zs GEFS were interesting. Asides for P20 flying the cold flag, there were a few others very close to the tipping point. Probably grasping at straws but there’s still time for this to turn around yet. 18z GEFS will be of interest, as every new run is when it gets new initialisation data, but the 00Z suite will probably say give us a better indication as to whether or not there remains (at least) an outside chance of a dramatic turnaround .

No snow here (a bit floating around, not really sure that counts). However, the set up and wind direction has not thus far been conducive to it down here. Increased opportunities for a smattering though, as the wind should drop most of its northerly element later very shortly and becomes closer to a true easterly.

North easterlies are usually a waste of time here, Too far west to pick up streamers, unless we are into March where the warmer land can aid convection. Even then, very rare to get much more than leftovers and a smattering, even off a fairly active front. I’m waiting for the wind to start swinging more easterly, then south easterly later Monday into Tuesday, this should drag a bit of wintery convection into town. Hopefully

As @Uncertainy mentions above, much credit should probably be given to the ongoing Pacific forcing, shown by the MJO plot. Assuming the likes of ENSO is playing ball and we are getting a ‘connect’, and it looks like we are. All too often we are willing it on to hit record breaking amplitudes in P6/7/8 (Feb’18 hit an incredible SD of nigh on 4 if I remember correctly). But as extreme as the consequences could end up being, it also appears to increase the easterly pace of the convection wave? What we have now is the MJO, still at a very decent amplitude, but stalling (and I am only postulating here) I would naturally assume that this is something that is far more conducive to longevity in terms of a potential cold spell for us, again, under the right coupling circumstances. Thinking back to that very early March’18 cold spell, as ridiculously extreme as it was (for any time of the year, let alone March!), it was scuppered much earlier than had been expected, by the block being pulled too far NW at an eye popping speed. I’m sure this could be traced back to what the MJO was showing.

I’ve refrained from getting too excited about this, but it’s been showing for a few days now and is still very much there. It certainly has all the ingredients to get us in the snow-starved tropical south coast in on the action . I’ll probably hold off a little longer, I’m still smarting from that massive dumping in March’13 which was transferred to the Channel Islands at the last minute! (whisper it quietly though, it’s looking pretty good )

This is starting to look like the real deal. An evolving Scandi High was looking like more of a possibility in the past day or so, as more and more runs started holding back the monster low. I was posting as much last night and clearly fell asleep mid type (the excitement must’ve just got too much! ). Clearly an appetite for round#2 is staring us in the face now. A ‘warm up’ from the end of next week now looks strong odds on but every chance there will be nothing ‘warm’ about it! Still far from set in stone yet, but a trend could emerging to remain cold with light winds and dry. That would do very nicely indeed should it happen, as we await another potential attack from the East! A snowier version of February’86 anyone?

Putting aside the fantastic cold spell on our doorstep, what happens to that end of week low (and the consequences of) is, hands down, one of the best model watching periods I can remember. Fascinating stuff.

I wish I had the time to properly go through the GEFS at around D7/8. Some really intriguing evolutions emerging ref that low. This has a long way left to run and I’m getting the distinct impression any warm up, should it even arrive, will be relatively short lived before we’re looking east again?

I felt that over the last couple of days we’d seen a subtle but undoubted move away from a more UK widespread very cold and snowy spell. I didn’t post my thoughts as I’m always the first to moan about people saying tomorrow’s runs are a absolutely crucial! But... I do think that we were fast running out of time for that trend to reverse. Thankfully it has, and it has done it in some style!! Certainly still marginal at times down here, but that sort of goes with the territory living here, but I’d be more than happy to take my chances on any of the main runs this morning. Come the time it won’t look like that of course, but there should be all manner of nice surprises tucked away in those yet to form isobar kinks no doubt The Northern Hemisphere set up is other worldly right now, even if we don’t all get what we want, we can at least all marvel at that!

Ok, now we’re cooking. Not sure I saw that coming from +120

Imagine the GFS didn’t exist and the Para was it. We’d have many more happy people on here right now. MONSTER Greenland High

Standard GFS D5/6 wobble? Happens oh so often in these situations, it rarely snaps back, almost always skulks back slowly . Mustn’t discount it though, the BBC (Meteogroup) are seeing next week like this, with SWerlies prevailing. It might well be on to something, it really is a very complicated messy one to resolve, but my money would have to be on the Euro combo right now. A lot will come down to timing as to which path it goes.

Scandi Highs are more common than Greenland Highs (not those common surface features, actual blocks). Therefore, it would be correct to say that there probably have indeed been more instances that they have been involved in UK Winter Freeze ups. Although much rarer I'd say GL Highs produce more times as a ratio, that was my point. Anyway, an Icelandic High is probably better than both

By the same token nor is a Scandi High any guarantee (i'm thinking the dreaded 'no mans land' scenario for one). I'd wager Scandi highs probably produce way less than a proper Greenland High.

I'm still laughing at comments on Saturday (as I did at the time) saying it should all be resolved by Sunday! I would say though, don't discount the 06z OP. I don't think it's implausable at all, just, taking everything into consideration, it's pretty unlikely IMO. Certainly sat right on the bad end of a, still, very wide envelope. Woth remember that when the GFS does turn out to be correct in these sort of situations (as in the earlier, much better, output), it VERY rarely doesn't have a big wobble around the D5 period. And I do find it often handles these nearby cut off lows better than the ECM for some reason. Keep the faith. As if to emphasise this ongoing uncertainty, Para 06z goes off on yet another route.

The 00z suite is pretty monumental. However, I would say anything but cross model agreement, though all roads seem to lead to snow this morning (unless you watched the overnight BBC weather for the week, which has no mention of snow or anything particularly cold over the weekend and then shows the entire country basking in mild south westerlies by early next week, staggeringly poor, just the smallest mention of an easterly at the end) GFS- steadfastly resolute with its consistent evolution of dropping energy south, leading to a classic strengthening easterly / nor easterly , UKMO going down the Dutch lp route after scooting the pressure system eastwards initially ECM, still dawdling in comparison, slower to drop, but when it does, oh boy... All sorts of permutations thereafter (from the incredible to the meh to the awful), so little to be taken from that right now.

Model watching at its best. What is hilarious on here is how people can be “absolutely gutted” about something that has yet to occur . Anyway, another improvement on yesterday. Much to be resolved (and that won’t occur tomorrow I doubt). No denying ECM OP is poor, but only poor in comparison to the others, but no doubt it has definitely edged towards them a bit on the 12Zs (in a very GFS like way!). Northern blocking, in a yet to be determined form, is now virtually nailed on. Much concern about the dawdling low, IMO I think it will clear and give us a decent easterly for starters. Certain people seem to want, or even expect, a cold and snowy nirvana straight off the bat. It rarely ever happens like that, just get the cold in, we don’t have zonal waiting in the wings, we are in a very good place to allow for even more potent bites of the cherry later on We have a super disturbed northern hemispheric pattern, largely courtesy of the ongoing Strat volatility, good forcing from the Pacific about to be introduced, and it’s only just about to be February, THE best month for snow chances. Some will soon be bleating on about warmer days etc etc but as far as I am concerned, this is as good as it gets right now. I’d happily take this going into March, let alone February! So looking good for next weekend and hereafter who knows? There seems to be a myriad of possibilities, the good news though is that a good deal of them involve and

D7-D10 cold spell starts showing in the charts and I guarantee nobody, but nobody, will be saying it’s nailed on. Yet the very second that we get slightly less good charts appear (as we do in the run up to every cold spell) then that’s it, winter’s over, and it’s taken as absolute gospel It must be so exhausting, emotionally and mentally, following each OP run like this!? I suppose it’s always been like that on here, so it isn’t ever going to change. So, these 12Zs that were such a disaster...What have we got? I’m only talking out to about D8, at best (in this situation it would be pointless looking further out, other than for trends, run to equivalent run), UKMO, GFS and GFSP OPs look absolutely fine and are heading the right way. ECM definitely doesn’t look right, it’s evolution says I haven’t got a scooby how to interpret this unusual set up. Most importantly, the GEFS Mean is flipping stunning OK, there has to be a chance that one or two, like the ECM OP, have indeed picked up a cold-scuppering signal, one that will end up being correct, but it flies in the face of most of the data I’m looking at so right now, so am giving it little credence right now. As maligned as they are, Exeter are normally more correct than 99% on here, so having them on board as well is huge. ‘Downgrades’ absolutely do reverse, in response to a comment earlier. Define downgrade? Very subjective on here I’d suggest. It is about the context. Is the ‘downgrade’ going somewhat to totally against the grain? Or is it merely backing up the background signals? How many times have we seen those decent Op charts but, if we were honest with ourselves at the time, were ‘against the run of play’ as it were? As in, Exeter were firmly against and/or the all important CPC 6-10 day 500mb outlook said no. A lot. But it’s not the case this time, the dice are loaded in our favour. All the signs remain that February could be . Keep the faith.

Am guessing it is Weather Trending