Duane S.

Nothing to fret about whatsoever having looked at the 00z suite. No wholesale changes, it’s pretty much as we were. A lot of snow for many Northern areas ongoing, a few days of interest coming up for those further south, then a well forecast warmup that will likely take us towards the end of the month. Then, that is where things could start to get interesting again. Continuing signs of a scandi / Icelandic high forming as we head into February. GFS OP not really interested on this run. ECM messy but I can see an easterly a short while later from this... GFSP has been resolute for a few runs, bar one, recently... The GEM bring it in very early. Unlikely IMO but maybe one to watch?...

Really interesting output this morning. Clearly the winner is the GFS parallel. The second absolutely stunning run in a row. It’s that relatively innocuous looking ‘nosing down’ of a ridge from the Arctic that I will be looking for to set the path for what could follow. It seems to be part aided and abetted by a powerful far East Siberian vertical ridge that isn’t showing on most others. This is definitely one to watch I’d say. Saturday is also starting to get more interesting. These waves are unpredictable as they try to form a closed low pressure system at the best of times. Could pop a surprise or three for some in the snow starved south? And, in answer to a comment earlier, quite obviously the SSW, and the weakening in general of the SPV, is having an effect on our weather, and a very big one. Its effects are far from finished, it would be a mistake to give up on winter yet, there’s a long way to go with this one...

Please allow me this small divergence mods... I feel like the last 3 weeks have been a bit of a blur. I caught Covid tail end of 2020 and was really rough with it. Low oxygen levels leading to incredible lightheadedness, I even managed to collapse and knock myself out on one occasion, ridiculously cold all the time, completely lost my appetite for over a week, in bed for 23 hours a day, unbelievably painful muscle aches and body tenderness. To put it into perspective, I stopped looking at the charts and started wishing for warming weather for goodness sake! Very much wishing @Scott Ingham and his mum all the very best, it really is a horrific illness, one that took everything out of me. I’m in the bottom priority group for vaccines and believe me, my arm will be there, ready, the very second I get my invitation! Anyway, I’m pleased to say (and am extremely grateful) that I seem to be on the mend and back getting my head back around the output for the second half of winter 20/21. Certainly very interesting going towards the end of this month and into February. Notwithstanding much interest this week for those further north as well.

Thanks Beka, I’ve been better that’s for sure. Still dragging on 9 days in. Freezing cold, no appetite, nausea and totally lethargic all day long. Thank goodness for Paracetamol at least We had an outbreak at work just before Christmas (despite our stringent precautions )by the time we hit 4 cases I decided to shut the company down early for Xmas. In the intervening few days we’d hit 13 known cases, 20% of the workforce. Scattered around seemingly indiscriminately, no real clusters. Horrible.

A beautiful cloudless crisp day. I’m genuinely looking forward to the relative warmup in a few days, having contracted the dreaded lurgy I have changed my priorities somewhat. Hopefully by the time I’m shot of it we will be looking a another blocky set up and more hope of some white stuff further south this time.

3 pages of ignored users and rising fast after several more added this morning . It’s definitely the way forward. To those getting seriously fed up with this forum being spoilt by certain people, I say try it, the forum suddenly becomes a much nicer place. The incessant whining, glass half empty, and negativity (obviously I am not including the genuine objective posts), this attention seeking need to play Devils Advocate, the ridiculous knee jerk emotional tantrums when we get a less good suite, ruin the experience of model watching on this forum. It’s always the same people and now a few new ones. We know the deal, we have a wonderful looking Northern Hemisphere (the likes of which do not come along very often), we are on the verge of a nailed on SSW, and most people on here fully understand how the charts struggle with these non-norm set ups. It is indeed all about the big picture. Even if this does end up being a memorable cold and snowy winter, it won’t have been without less cold periods, even the greatest winters endured those, to one degree or another. And even if the Euros are correct this morning, and yes, they could well be, (although personally I’m far from convinced they are) the best potential is still yet to come. By all means, we can all come back in April and have a wash down autopsy, but until the winter is over and whilst this incredible potential persists, I’m not going to be dragged down and have this time ruined.

Best ECM run yet for reversal down into the trop, with -70 m/s showing at the top now . What a lovely graphic at D10, full connection, top to bottom. Also, a continuation of the under estimation of the wave 2 intensity.

-40 would smash the biggest reversal recorded. Clearly this would be very much an outside bet currently but it’s still amazing to see it’s not just one rogue run, there are 4 going for it!

Ukmo again goes from zero to hero with the best D6 output of the morning ECM is good but goes on to produce another completed different D10 chart (nothing particularly new there though). Energy running over the top appears to be the main spoiler on this one (but it’s still a lovely winter chart though!), Difficult to know where it would be heading next. Not that it matters of course, as it is very unlikely to be right at that point anyway. I appreciate there is 12 and 24 hours difference but just to show how all over the place the output is, in particular for our neck of the woods, the last 3 D10 ECMs. What is consistent is the main vortex edging further Northeast, as expected. SSW coming very soon, I can’t imagine the output is going to stabilise for quite a while yet. I think it is probably worth steering away from the GFS long term trop charts for a while, they won’t be able to get as good a grip on the impacts of stratospheric events above. And anyway, there will be plenty of opportunities next week for most, so no need to be downbeat on the back of a couple of slightly less good runs. This remains terrific model watching

Sorry, no, to say ‘the wheels are starting to come off’ is just plain dramatic and completely misleading. Feb, you know enough and have been around for long enough to understand the potential in this. How unusual this is. And how volatile the output is likely to be in this situation. I posted in the strat thread earlier today that I could see a bit of a relaxation of the cold around mid month, but that hardly means the whole thing is a bust, which is how your post reads.

This is quite a 48 hour transformation at the top of the srat My only slight concern is are we seeing a propensity of increasing westerly winds in the troposphere seeping in, in response? I get a feeling that we may have to endure a bit of a relaxation of cold conditions in about 12 days time or so. That’s not a moan. Firstly that would be after a very long, by UK standards, continuous cold spell. Secondly, just out of range, I suspect there are some frigid charts waiting to make an appearance on the scene.

Gorgeous day out there today, hardly a breath of air and cloudless blue skies. Would love to go for a walk but in still in self isolation! Pavement outside and back lawn still iced up, don’t see that too often here in the afternoon time

This sort of abnormal winter northern hemispheric set up is what excites me more than getting snow on the ground I think! Maybe because living where I do tempers snowy expectations somewhat. Several consecutive years without a flake falling is not unheard of down here. The NH view is truly incredible right now. Combine with the soon to be SSW and likely further warmings and vortex upsets, and the potential is about as good as it gets. I know some hate the word ‘potential’ but, like it or not, without potential, you get nothing. Times like this are rare for us cold weather nutters, and it’s for these moments that I’ve spent so much time pouring over charts and data every winter for 20+ years. This is not normal folks, just try and enjoy the ride. This could be a massive letdown with the weather we end up getting on the ground, but IMO we’d have been very unlucky if so. On the flip side, this could end up being an historic winter. This ECM this morning chart gives me goosebumps...

Impressive looking U wind reversal showing up this morning on the ECM. Much improved from yesterday. No vortex split mid strat but signs of the. start of a wave 2 resurgence on day 10?

Wave 2 not quite strong enough at the crucial time to split the vortex this time around? It appears to back off at the critical juncture. Subject to change still of course.

Feet still firmly on the ground but... Whilst nothing of note has actually happened just yet, and it may still end up flattering to deceive (as normal), be in no doubt, what we have here is a once in a decade (possibly generation) potential set up. This FAR from usual. The stars appear to be aligning in our favour. This has more of a 1963 longevity feel about it than I can ever remember. Simply stunning Northern Hemisphere. We normally need a double six, we pretty much need anything bar a double one for a proper cold spell to develop now.

Best chance for me to see some early winter snow for a good few years over the next few days. We’ve all got our own benchmarks, but a 5 minute backedge flurry before the year’s out and I’ll be a happy chappy. Partly because this is likely to be jus the starter course of winter...

Probably around about the middle of next month. Maybe quicker. Maybe longer. Details of which, very much yet to be confirmed.

Wave 1 appears to have done enough damage for a moderate wave2 to do the job? Heading down nicely this morning. Still just a technical SSW at this stage but just look at h strength of the reversal coming from the top! Poleward flux looks good to keep the pressure on GFS goes for a huge reversal at both 65N and 60 A strong vortex has never really managed to get going this year. There are no real signs that it will any time soon either.

Knowing the background signals as we do, this is a superb chart Bitingly cold at the time and likely to be coming out of the ‘wane’ phase. Next step I'd assume would be a renewed amplification wave and maybe for us look NE for something more extreme? But of course this is just one outcome of many, of which seemingly the great majority point towards cold, cold and continued cold! Also, 58 years ago today, we had this... It was the precursor to one of the most memorable winters in living memory of course. No comparisons meant in terms of synoptics but worth remembering the other truly great uk winter of the past 75 years looked like this on Boxing Day, and was still a good few weeks away from getting going yet! Basically. Have patience!!

I think you have the 10mb and 30mb forecasts mixed? I make it a technical SSW. It does look that way at first glance on the chart you posted though!

I can some already posting these charts but I’m posting the again because it’s Xmas and because they are so Happy Christmas from the ECM... Squeeeeeeeeeeze Reversal on way down

Stunning charts, just stunning. No point fixating on the details, it will of course change. What a thing of beauty this is...

Day after day of great charts. Day after day of continued fantastic potential. We are being treated at the moment. Model watching at its best. Despite SK's brilliantly put post earlier, I'm sure the 850hpa 'debate' will rumble on. Ask yourself though, on any given model run do you check out the 850mb charts first and then (if at all) look at the the 500mb charts? Because if you do, you have definately got your priorities all wrong...

Yes, undeniably the Arctic is warmer and undeniably that doesn’t help achieve slightly colder uppers but that, I thought quite clearly, wasn’t my point. The main reason the uppers aren’t lower than they may’ve been is mainly Synoptics. But yes, obviously, a warming Arctic will only work against us in terms of temperatures.