Duane S.

Probably still grappling with the typhoon situation and with La Nina as it is, GFS and ECM plots differ quite markedly. ECM has bounced back from briefly also predicting a sharp dip into the COD and back out again. GFS remains resolute. I would imagine the differences will have ramifications on the output, albeit in about 2 weeks time. Interesting to see which one is closer to being correct

I laughed when I looked at that earlier. "Locally mild" It makes sense looking at some of the poorer op runs of late I suppose, UK high, colder with a dry, possible continental, feed further south and weak fronts running over the top of it for the NW.

Wasn’t it a torpedo? But yes, these are unusual Synoptics for the time of year. Nothing is decided after a stonking or poor model suite. Normally the best we could hope for at this time of year is one-shot outside-chance 2 day toppler affair, so make the most of it folks, whatever the outcome, it may be another 11 years before we have our next cold and snow Christmas chase …

Well the Italians love a UK high! To be fair, I’d snatch your arm off for a robust uk high over Christmas with an active Pacific cycle. East based Nina should allow us a bit more hope than otherwise. Not sure what to make of the ECM , I’m not sure we can discount it though. One to watch but but I agree 144 to 192 was a bit of a surprise. D6 classic trough disruption, all looking good. D7 cut off low looked good at first glance but at the same time southern Greenland was suddenly looking very angry (come on Greenland, get into the festive spirit ). D8 nope, not happening! the fuse was lit for the rest of the run from there, so no surprise how it ended. Last 24 hours has seen a net improvement, with an excellent 00z set and an ok (relatively speaking) 12z set. The GEM is excellent again but has constantly been over keen with retrogression imo. GEFS offering good outcomes throughout. Very much still game on, for once being on the south coast could even end up being advantageous!

Yep, this was the forecast back in late Jan, which ended up not being far off the mark

Ref the MJO, what is very notable this year and unlike on one occasion last year for example, when the GFS was consistently far more optimistic than the ECM (the ECM ended up being closer to the money), they have been been largely on the same page for this progession through the Pacific. I remember back in 2018 when the plot went off the scale in P6/7, both were on board then as well.

Yes, certainly better signs of trough disruption on the ECM mean D10 Hopefully leading to lowered heights in Europe, the key to getting enough latitude from our MLB. We’re in the game for sure but on a knife edge. Pacific forcing is driving this one, it wouldn’t take much at all to scupper it but it would take quite a bit to improve it to what we want (deep cold and snow). Not quite making it but a nice frosty Christmas would be my punt right now. Whilst I hope I’m wrong but still a very acceptable outcome should it to come to fruition, and who knows where thereafter into the new year…

GEM not messing about I see, cutting straight to the chase! I’d struggle to see that occurring in just 10 days but a stunning chart to look at nevertheless. That is a mighty wave 2 surge, and I like the Pacific ridging emanating from the western Aleutian isles, not the far Eastern Pacific. This would open up all sorts of possibilities We can but dream

It's worth noting as well that a lot of our cold (not transient cool) spells come about whilst there is an Arctic high in stu. Often these come about from a strong Pacific ridging. Whilst a link up with ridging / WAA from our section of the NH can be ideal (think split tpv, cross polar flow) , just having a meandering HP cell around the Arctic always increases our chances, as the TPV will not be able to wind up fully and get a foothold Arctic-wide (say, +70 degrees lat). Bearing in mind of course that more often than not, it can have no net effect on us, or even in some cases a detrimental effect. Then we have the normal killjoy of a breakaway shard of PV then dominating over the Greenland locale and ruining everything. Luck and timing will always play a part for us. However... given a choice, I will always take a -AO and take my chances. And.. as we know, combine a -AO with a -NAO and our chances go up very nicely indeed!

It's FI and the GFS etc but that wave 2 signal is strong and growing stronger. Watch this space, some very fruity charts incoming over the next couple of weeks... Of course, whether it bears fruit for the UK is an entirely different story.

Firstly, nothing supports a true ‘Bartlett’ , it’s the same every winter, first sign of pressure to our south and out it’s wheeled. Now, we’ve been here before in December with an Atlantic dominated period slowly moving way for a mid latitude block in the vicinity of the UK. I’d give that a very fair chance of occurring in the mid term. We then find ourselves willing, with all our might, that high northwards, but more often than not retrogression is simply not supported, so, at best, it remains a MLB. I fancy we are somewhat more in the game this time though. Certainly the MJO and potential lag effect would play right into our hands. GLAAM on the uptick as well ought to help. If only we had an E-QBO as well… Well, of course, we do! Less ‘fuel’ to the spinning of the Strat vortex. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a classic strong wave 2 evolve later this month. We have a good hand here folks. I see little in the next 2 weeks, but much much interest around Christmas and especially as we head towards and beyond the New Year. Absolutely no comparisons obviously, but it’s often too easy to take charts at face value and ignore the background signals. Things didn’t work out too bad 10 days after this…

If the background signals, E-Qbo, E-based moderate Nina, building Urals high, still low solar, favourable MJO and possibly GLAAM forecasts don't produce something meaningful later on... If the likes of Antonio Conte can't do it... Then both our chances of getting a decent cold spell and/or Tottenham ever winning a trophy again are probably equally doomed! I'll be there Sunday though. COYS

It’s quite simple. Just ignore any comments that write off winter on what is only the 2nd day of winter . They hold no weight whatsoever. Even moreso in respect to the start of this particular winter I say…

I keep thinking back to December 2012. The despair, the despondency, the dejection with the infamous failed ECM and perceived missed opportunities around early/mid December’12. What most of us were missing at the time was that these were the building blocks to a cold spell that hit early the following month. That ECM, if it had come off, would’ve been an additional bonus. Are we getting a bit of a wintery bonus now I wonder, with the main course to follow as we head towards Xmas? As there are definitely some similarities here. Maybe bought forward a couple of weeks in the season, compared to that period 9 years ago.

Not to necessarily give it huge credence at this stage but the GFS OP missed ending up the same by a whisker. It certainly makes more sense IMO than an ugly flabby EU slug, which the GFS has been hinting at recently in far FI. Ah, the GFS FI… even a broken clock and all that?

Another day and things still looking good. That’s important as the window of error will now start to increasingly narrow over the coming days. Obviously. My point being notable and sudden downgrades now will make a flip back much more unlikely (that seems to work less in reverse though! ) Every tiny amount of extra northwards push of the Mid Atlantic ridge is giving us slightly better looking succeeding charts. We’ve bemoaned the inconsistent nature of the models but to be fair, they’ve not actually wavered that much from the general idea. Strong HP centred over Northern France gets pulled NW into the Atlantic. Said HP then allowed to drift back over us before being pulled back NW south of GL again, this time low pressure formed from within the Arctic Circle dropping down over us (in form or another,) bringing winds of a Northerly element.

Some very decent ens in amongst there…

There she blows. Very decent 06z OP run there from the GFS Just showing what a bit of a tweak upstream, leading to slightly better ridging to our NW, can send our way. Also leading to a much better profile in far FI. And the effect of a quiet Atlantic cannot be underestimated when it comes to the models picking things up quite late. This is far from over folks…

I know ‘everything is relative’ but this forum does tend to make the benchmark of relativity the extreme end of the spectrum. In this case, what would’ve been extraordinary charts for November, resulting in virtual countrywide extreme cold and heavy snow. Wind it back a bit and look at where we were and where we are now. I agree IF the GFS OP proves to be on the money, with the way it really powers up (sound familiar?) and places us in what would be much more of a westerly element than Northerly then yes we’ve been a bit short changed. Albeit even then there, back edge snow later on in the period, ok mainly for Northern areas, could be quite an impressive footnote. I’m surprised therefore that there isn’t more positivity with the runs that followed on, from the GEM, UKMO and ECM then? Whilst those extreme scenarios for next weekend are now very unlikely, these all present us with a lot of interest and are not backtracking further away, if anything they have kept us very much in the game, with a little hint it’s far from over yet. I’m still undecided if we have any hope of a longer lasted cold spell. Unlikely I’d say but when we’ve got such a quiet zonal train predisposition, it couldn’t be be ruled out at this stage. And this… this is all happening in meteorological Autumn. Putting aside the danger that yes, this could indeed give a bunk-up to a mid-winter zonal fest, via unopposed coupling, it’s not a given this year, especially if we are moving more East based Nina and E-QBO. I wouldn’t fancy doing a winter forecast this winter. I’d say there’s a comparatively very wide envelope of outcomes this year.

GFS 12z... Less mid-Atlantic ( it’s not really Greenland) amplification again this run. Whilst mid-range might bring some brief fun and games for some, it shows how we don’t want that, as it vastly reduces the chances of a repeat and reload / long lasting cold spell. There are tipping points when it comes to the weather and whilst upstream factors play the biggest role, often there is a delicate balance, two different (often quite different) paths can emerge, the eventual route dictated by fine margins.

Easy to lose perspective when we’ve been watching this (hopefully) roll in for about a few days now. Loving the run to run differences and the fact this isn’t going to be nailed for a while yet. The 18z is another utterly bonkers run for the UK. Anyone who says this is standard fare is plain wrong. Cool, stormy with heavy rain for most has to remain a distinct possibility unfortunately but I’d say there is an almost equal chance of a fairly memorable cold and snowy spell for many parts. Albeit I’m not harbouring too much hope in my location. Surely the most intriguing start to a winter for 11 years this?

People are genuinely complaining about a solid Greenland block and slightly west based -NAO in the November? Wow. Notwithstanding this is merely one option within a very pleasing on the eye envelope of options . I'd take that in a heartbeat. Without an Atlantic ready to properly power through, this could lead to a memorable December. We fixate on the ultra rare times a severe cold spell arrives super quick and with relatively little fuss. But this is incredibly rare. The vast majority of decent cold/snowy spells we had to 'endure' near misses and extra 'bites of the cherry'. Often as well, the proper cold doesn't follow on just a few days later either, it can take weeks. Feedback mechanisms will be in play. People view this is missed opportunity, well yes it can be, but it is more like necessary building blocks that have to fall into place (with of course no assurance we will actually end up with a wintery Nirvana!).

Not much to add really. What a D10 mean that is though! As per my post a few days back, November has a nasty habit of teasing only to ultimately disappoint. However… the background signals / jet profile etc are fairly supportive and in our favour for a change. Don’t expect any major cold spell to cruise in smoothly aka Dec’09 and Feb’18, a bumpy road to travel before we get there I suspect. But a long fetch Arctic airmass come the final third of the month, looks a reasonable prospect I’d say. That said, a watered down north westerly would be personally where my money would be right now, but… I won’t be a party pooper, so bring on the Arctic cold !!

We often see the emergence of the Arctic High around this time of year. Normally it meanders around on the other side of the hemisphere, the dominance of the growing sprawling TPV keeping it firmly in check. It looks like being formed through fairly strong Pacific ridging and reinforcement comes via a deep Eastern Siberian low. Unlikely the vortex is going to set up camp and dominate Greenland for a while, so it could play a part towards the end of the month, potentially linking up with likely Mid Atlantic ridging, if, as always, the timing is right! Definitely one to watch…

My first post for what promises to be (hopefully) at least a half decent winter ahead. I’ve been viewing the recent chart output intently though and it is not without interest. Clearly the lack of any meaningful Atlantic weather, now or in the offing, increases our chances greatly. I can see case for potential height builds to the NE or to the NW here. Yes in a reality we will probably end up with a MLB (not so shabby in itself). I’d certainly be keeping an eye open for some quite sudden changes to the D5 period from the charts in this respect. I struggle to remember a November though that hasn’t promised all sorts of good things. Virtually every year of late we’ve been getting these teases, but nothing has really ever come to fruition. On a couple of recent occasions I actually think we were bang unlucky though. Maybe our time this year? Interesting for sure.