Duane S.

We have to get through the ECM first!

That's a proper split. Great to see it isn't the standard top down strong 1hpa split which struggles to get down to let alone 5mb and therefore has little net effect. Potential ramifications of this are pretty evident. Late winter 2013 revisited.

Patience. Unlikely some Northerlies, the onset of Easterlies NEVER EVER follow a straightforward non-nerve-shredding evolution. We are at the end of the line, it has and will ALWAYS be this way. In answer to your question, yes it will very likely be cold at the surface by then.

But, as frustrating as it may be to you, unless you live at altitude, 9 out of 10 times, the snow isn't going to arrive without the cold in. That's just how it works. That doesn't mean that the snow necessarily always follows the cold of course...

Seriously... Is this just to get a reaction? Well, it's worked I guess.

GEM looking interesting @ +150. Azores High played its part early on sending a bout of WAA to help reinforce our blocking high. This is one scenario where increased energy in the Northern arm (initially at least) could well help us here

The less impressive uppers on show on the GFS are because of the not so clean breakaway of the energy to our NW. Not to be discounted but should be transient at least. As for the earlier comment reference the UKMO +120 being dry. Really? Maybe if you live in Blackburn but not for a large swathe of other areas of the UK. That will bring snow showers to many. Oh my, just seen the UKMO +144. VERY easy on the eye indeed!

Looks like the 12z GFS wants to deepen that low to our West a tad. Net effect that should keep it further north. Interested to see where we go from here with this playing out. Possibly a stronger initial easterly

Yep, those small differences mentioned above by Steve are helping drag in colder 850s further west.

Before the 12z proper start to roll out. It may be worth remembering that it is macro differences in the longwave pattern (which is rapidly being firmed up upon) that are going to make the differences for what happens on the ground in the UK. And this will not be resolved today or any time soon. All we are seeing are differing outcomes in the Ops / ens. Try to keep your toys in your prams, there will be plenty of runs to come which will show higher uppers than we'd like. Also, don't worry about the Azores High, that ought to end up being our friend, not foe. 1991 / 1996 both evolved in very similar ways and not doubt would have had this forum flapping in pretty much the same way as in recent days on here. Let's just enjoy the ride because we don't even have a ticket to the raffle most winters!

Great set of MJO plots this afternoon. Beating the drum louder and harder. The timing could be impeccable

Good for you. Personally though, seeing as its only the 4th of February, I am looking forward to the possibilities of cold and snow over the next few weeks. The 12z had delivered so far. No downgrades. Firming up on no '1991' for now ( was always the likely case) but also firming on on the Easterly itself. What follows from next weekend onwards is still well up in the air. All possibilities remain. Exciting stuff.

That's how I am seeing it too. I think the models are largely under estimating the effects of the Pacific influence on the pattern in the days to come, I suspect we are going to see more undercut occurring from the Atlantic down through into the Med. Thus less energy riding over the top. The interesting thing here though in this setup is that even if not and the Northern arm remains strong for longer, that still may not end up being a bad thing in the long run, albeit we may have to endure a mild(er) transitional period.

This is best chance of a decent Easterly for years. Of course, plenty can (and dare I say, probably will) go wrong but on the flip side, there is, albeit very much an outside, chance of a GEM esque outcome here. The ECM will do. Also, Dublin can do very well from an Easterly.

Firstly, if your benchmark for a good run is the GEM, may I politely suggest you relocate to the Arctic Circle because the times in recent years that such a run for the uk has come to fruition, you could count on one hand and still have fingers remaining. Secondly, the rest of your post.

I'm not even going to wait for the 12z ECM op to complete, it's largely irrelevant. So if this time yesterday was good, then this time today is twice as good. Firstly because in the passing 24 hours there has been no TREND away from the onset of an easterly and more so, we are a day closer to it being nailed. (Nit) pick faults all you like, the Easterly (ranging from meh to a proper classic) is still VERY much in play tonight.

I sincerely hope nobody is downbeat as a fascinating and very positive (if you like snow) 12z suite draws to a close. Let's look at what we have: Cross model agreement on an Easterly of sorts in the mid term. Not in far away la la land. We can go whole winters without that happening. Let's look at won't we don't have: Absolutely anything nailed on. In fact, nothing could have occurred this evening in the chart outputs that would have ensured that. We are simply too far away from being able to crack open the champagne, but... every day we see these sort of outputs is day that we are a step closer to a potentially cold and snowy spell from the east. So yes it very much could all go wrong but there is nothing showing tonight other than variances on an already established theme. i.e. no 'downgrades' and no trend to anything less cold. We can't ask for more than that...

Blimey! If the ECM puts in a decent run then tonight's 12z suite must go down as one of the best for mid term prospects in many a while. And the timing could just be perfect with today's MJO forecasts further cementing this. We really would have to be ridiculously unlucky to miss out on, at the very least, a 3 - 5 day PC feed and heavy snow showers. Such are the possibilities at the other end of the snowy spectrum however, that unlike most times, I wouldn't bank that right now.

Yep, I think that is exactly where we are. In order to stop us being stuck in the dreaded No Man's land setup, we are going to need some Pacific forcing to help slow down / reverse zonality and back things west. It certainly looks like in that respect, the timing (just for once) may just be perfect!

Too much against the quick easterly option, there always was, nothing has changed. That northern arm has too much energy to relent (for now). I think Ian's 20% is a very fair shout. This is all leading into the more realistic window of opportunity, 10-14 days on from now. Anything decent before this (and it is most certainly feasible, if not exactly the favourite right now) will be a bonus (albeit a very welcome one!).

Made the schoolboy error of reading some comments on here before I went and viewed the charts myself (ECM currently part through). What a great 12z suite all in all. Nothing to worry about (any more than there was before they came out). All still VERY much to play for. Absolutely nothing has changed.

This is wrong on so many levels...

No point nit-picking at the details, they are irrelevant at this stage. What is relevant is that the 00z suite very much says a big yes to a proper cold snowy spell. A heck of a lot is in our favour with this one, by far the most favourable set of background signal + chart outputs all winter. But, of course, there are many ways in which this could be curtailed, it is still relatively early days, this is the UK, and how many times have we seen defeat being snatched from on the jaws of victory in these scenarios. Its nice to at least have a ticket for the raffle though, so often at this stage of the winter we are desperately scrabbling around for shreds of optimism with the Atlantic fully fuelled up.

The trend to an undercut scenario remains favourable, true it doesn't look like taking place any time soon and we may well have to endure a tedious stalemate situation. With a growing block to our east and a longwave trough to our west, effectively cancelling each other out, whilst we sit in the middle, tearing our hair out watching the cold plummet down towards Turkey and Greece! All part of the likely process in getting the cold air to us in the first place, that Greenland arm isn't going to relent overnight. Yep it would have been better a few weeks back but there are reasons, seasonal ones, why/how this setup is occurring now and not at the tail end of December. So I think that whilst there is a case to say that we have indeed been unlucky not to have had a proper cold spell so far this winter, maybe in hindsight (that wonderful thing) many (including me) probably did let our hearts rules our heads on occasions when the background signals were clearly saying "no, it's not for you UK, not yet". Moving onwards and into Feb, the effect of the ongoing Strat warmings, the eastward movement of the MJO, a more troubled vortex, increased wave 2 activity is for sure going to give us another shot at the big time. Much water yet to pass under many bridges. A firm undercut trend is without a doubt emerging. I'm not in the least bit concerned at this stage about charts showing us just missing out (we'd better get used to it, I suspect there will be plenty more to come). Often, in these situations, the pattern does back west. For me, the very fact we have a half decent chance like this is plenty good enough to draw me back into the chase. I'm expecting a stonking ECM to show up in the next day or 2!

My thoughts remain. This didn't and doesn't have the feel of a standard zonal onslaught. The block looks set to bring the fight to the Atlantic. A more and more Southerly tracking jet has to remain a possibility. Let's see if it is something of nothing or the start of a trend...