Duane S.

Wrong thread I know but if this verifies, there will be reprocussions, big ones, for the currently dominate vortex.

Ha ha It gets you like that doesn't it. It shouldn't but it does! If it can go wrong, seemingly it will. I do agree with you ref the timing. Anything ('proper' cold wise) prior to mid month I am viewing as a bonus. Some great building blocks being stacked up in our favour in terms of HLB forming in the right locale. The gradual movement away of the Southerly slug being the critical one.

Very good ECM and definite improvement on the 00z. Mid month onwards looks to be setting up for the next fail , sorry, window of opportunity. Maybe even a bit sooner. I hope the vortex is ready, as wave 2 activity is (finally) looking to pep up to a pretty decent level, wouldn't be surprised to see quite a radical vortex split evolve as a result. Don't rule out a proper Arctic high forming and ridging down our side of the NH from it as well (as rare as but the conditions could be relatively favourable for one going into the final third of the month IMO) So, for once, could we have some luck. Please!?!

Whilst the +168 is not particularly noteworthy taking it at face value, the gradual trend is evident that we are looking at some form trough disruption sending energy SE. Back it a few hundred miles west and game on. If not, still game on as we will get a med low

Now this is looking better. +144 and it is primed with potential. Details yet to be confirmed (by a long way) Now what sounds better... ? GFS + ECM (cold) v UKMET (mild solution). As in last week OR UKMET + ECM (cold) v GFS (mild solution). As in now

Wifi sped up a bit but decided to see it through on here first before having a quick look at the charts on Meteociel. Thanks for the updates guys, GREAT looking ECM, was much better than I had dared hope for. It looks like it's coming...

Struggling to view the charts with my poor wifi this morning (don't feel too sorry for me, I'm in Mauritius). Will have to rely on refreshing this page (still takes about 5 minutes but quicker than wetter or Meteociel right now). Keep the updates coming! ( then I'm back off to the beach )

Ignore the UKMO output at our peril I'd say, we've all been bitten before with that one. But...as poor as D5 / D6 is, it is only poor in the context of the current set up. Still heaps of potential for retrogression a few days later IMO. That's a sign of where we are and it's a very good sign. There are a few hurdles to leap but we have leapt some already. The one known hurdle yet to come is the dreaded hurdle of luck. We absolutely will need some, we always do and always will. I'm convinced we have had more than our fair share of bad luck in recent winters (or at least, no good luck), cross everything that changes as we head into 2017! ECM 00z fairly important. I'm not greedy. We don't need (although, yes, it would be nice) stonking charts, a small upgrade / westerly nudge from the 12z will suffice for now.

The forthcoming west based MLB is receiving a baffling amount of derision on this forum. Full on retrogression from slug straight to 'proper' HLB has never ever been realistically on the cards. Once the block is in place it doesn't look like sinking in a hurry and we then have a myriad of cold permutations that could follow on thereafter. Sheep-like following of op after op after op is no doubt mainly responsible for the tiresome mood swings in here of late. For those still early on the learning curve I would urge that you use the ops only in conjunction with the ens, which are a far more valuable tool right now. To conclude, its all good folks. There is no tangible zonal onslaught in sight and we about to achieve all of this with very muted atmospheric drivers in place. A good sign as this will very likely change as we head through January, imagine the potential then...?

I often enjoy reading your posts TEITS, but seriously, the bit in bold above is doing you no favours at all. In fact toys starting to be scattered about by many, far and wide from the pram today, as the realisation dawns we aren't going to have a repeat of 1963. Shock horror surprise. Anyway, it all looks full steam ahead for a great month of great potential. That's all we can ask for at that stage. The window of opportunity remains, downgrades and upgrades wil happen but until a full on Atlantic zonal train is upon us and in all the chart outputs to boot, let's enjoy the moment. Nothing has or hadn't occurred yet for goodness sake.

Happy Christmas everyone from the middle of the Indian Ocean. Some great model output over the past 24 hrs I see, It would be great to see the upcoming ECM00z continue the trend. it would indeed be ironic if we can pull something out of the (cold) bag despite less favourable background signals. That is exactly how it works sometimes though. When only a double six will do, we go and roll it!

Nice GFS00z and we have some much craved consistency. Not withstanding it could be consistently wrong of course! Certainly seems a plausible evolution as long as that ridging into GL isn't purely a knee reaction to its MJO forecast heading into phase 1 (which is FAR from set in stone). Great to see though, let's hope the ECM keeps with theme later this morning.

Soooo much negativity. Yes, there is no getting away from it, the charts are painting a pretty gloomy picture at present but there's nothing unusual there at this time of year in the UK. And yes my last post I think was one in the Strat thread (over a week ago) which stated how unlikely it would be that we could land a proper cold spell in the next 2-3 weeks due to the current state of things but at least there was a part of my post which IMO showed a glimmer of light. It's the write off the next 6 weeks esq posts and the like that are tiring to have to trawl through right now I can't remember another time when I have started skipping past some more learned posters at the very sight of their name, instead opting to read, and with no disrespect meant, those still early on the learning curve but at least with a glass half full approach and of course those with a lot more knowledge and that half full glass (Singularity, Lorenzo and Catacol to name but a few) who do what 98% of us are here for after all, spending our time pouring over output after output, looking for signs of a proper cold spell! Where's the fun gone?? Anyway, let's look at things. Not brilliant. Front loaded winter a non starter. WQBO helping to crank up the vortex and subsequently down the Strat temps at most levels. Wave activity hardly prolific. Short term we are probably going to have to forget about the stratosphere for assistance and look for help from below. The MJO could help provide a kickstart. The JMA, GEFS and the Taiwan model all hinting at Phase 1 which ought to help shift the slug and draw amplification out to the west of us in the Atlantic. I realise this is far from set in stone, the UKMET for instance has it heading into less favourable phase 5. But even then at least movement OUT of the COD and with it, forcing of some form. So my eyes are drawn to around the 27th and what is IMO our next window of opportunity (again, not the form horse but the opportunity exists, so that's good enough for me). Some GEFS members have shown it and continue to do so. Can we get a more meridional jet to drive up and down either side of Iceland as opposed to the GFS OP which takes a more zonal route and shuts the door to what could start as a fairly innocuous looking initial ridge into that area. It's what could then follow on that gets interesting. Partly because there are a couple of subtle yet tasty ingredients that are more likely than not to exist and that need a catalyst. Namely a weakish HP cell due to drift over the Arctic from Sibera and a pressure drop in south Eastern Europe very shortly afterwards. Within days we could find ridging turns in a new HP cell to our NE and Lo and behold we have a pre made very cold pool ready to be advected westwards for the first week of Jan. Clutching at straws?? Maybe and I'm certainly not going to bet any of my money on that outcome but it's an outside shot at least and sooner or later we are going to land one.

Ian, I've highlighted above the aspect that always seems to be the most commonly misinterpreted in these situations on this forum. What is often forgotten/overlooked/ignored is that we will almost always need high(er) latitude blocking to achieve a proper cold spell but high(er) latitude blocking does NOT guarantee it!

Ouch. Pretty much just as Singularity posted above a few days ago, it is difficult to see how we pull a decent cold spell out of the hat in the next 3 weeks or so with with the emerging setup. The W-QBO playing its hand here and helps rapidly fuel the upper vortex from fledgling/growing, through susceptible and beyond into to a raging beast which then drops down through the Strat with apparent ease. We are going to need some help here. With no significant wave breaking / warming showing up in the near future it does look at the moment as though we will need it from below. The MJO could be key as forecasts start to offer tentative signs of Pacific based activity. Nothing to get excited about yet but worth keeping an eye on in the next week or so for sure .

Will be interesting to the the next update or 2 to the QBO plot. I assume we are going to see a sharp drop off, down to around 15mb, to easterlies. The question will be how quickly they can descend from that height, with the current WQBO signature very much in place. Also, the apparent disconnect between the upper and mid Strat is very intriguing. I'm not sure I can remember seeing this to this degree before. I'm sure at some point in the near future this will change but it can't be a bad thing whilst it lasts. I think!

BA beaten me to it in both cases, so here it is in pictures.

I see many falling over themselves to put the mockers on things before winter has even started, to be expected, has always been the case in these circumstances, best not bite... Anyway, as expected, as the second half of December onwards starts comes into range so has (and so will continue) the eye candy charts. Of course, there will be plenty to come that will show us the wrong side of the block / with spoiler vortex segments / a snowy Athens etc but these are all just variations on the theme driven by the background signal that supports the best opportunity of a cracking Mid December to January (and beyond) for many a year.

Absolutely Tamara, there is no getting away from the similarities, It's all in place. And what happened next was an Aleutian ridge of sorts a few days later followed by a massive ridge just past mid month (and the rest, was history!). If anything, we may even be running a few days ahead of 62.

Hmmm I didn't see the Euro high as a potential spolier a week ago! Certainly seem to be a fairly strong signal for it to be a bit of pooper going through early December. In recent years the Euro High certainly has overtaken the much maligned yet illusive Bartlett High in that respect. I could understand it sat there, as it did, for weeks on end last year. With the ENSO state as it was, it was virtually a given. However, I simply can't see it being too much of a burden for this year, not with the background signals as they are. Give it a week or so of seemingly benign meandering, then wait for the mid month charts... I still believe we are going to see some crazy impressive looking charts hitting our screens soon as once more as retrogression is all abound. Now, whether or not it comes to fruition though, that's a whole different ball game. And in the meantime, at least it will feel nice and seasonal! :-)

In a way I am gutted with the current set up. It is becoming increasingly evident that, barring a (albeit perfectly plausible) sequence of bad luck, the UK is going to get cold (possibly very cold) later on in December. Something has got to give with this set up IMO, the mid lat high pressure will eventually give away to retrogression and the Arctic floodgates are going to open. My expectations are that, from around the end of the first week of Dec, an initial northerly blast with a strong Azores HP sat to our SW (caveat: the blast may end up just to our east but I think we will get it), a mild(er) period to follow as the Azores pumps back in, then a brief but potent Scandi high, then full on retrogression to Greenland as all the energy slips underneath and we will be locked in to an East based NAO. OK I get it, that is a dream scenario and it doesn't occur very often but... then nor does the genuine opportunity, which is exactly what we have right here, right now. I am gutted (personally) because I am going to be out of the country the last the last 2 weeks of December. Prime time for some fun and games. That said, once set up, I would fully expect January to carry on giving.

It's one of the precursors I always look out for (along with the all essential lower heights settling in below us). Some of the best cold spells started with a WAA shot Northwards through our locale, resulting in mild Southerlies for the UK before the cold set up in. Jan 47 springs to mind. Often, the more vertical the shot the better. And... with an Arctic high lingering, it shouldn't be ruled out as we head through December. There is no doubt the ingredients are there. Just need a pinch of luck.

Very good 12z suite. The ECM scenario would be interesting going forward, most notably for some mid-term snow opportunities and certainly for keeping the Atlantic at bay for the foreseeable. I do wonder though if an ECM mini-Easterly would/could end up undermining the potential early December Northerly blast. On the flip side... I also wonder if this Easterly has more legs to it and over the coming days we are going see it develop into something more tastier. I really don't think it would take too much more trough disruption upstream for things to get very interesting, relatively quickly.

Berlin D10 a hair's breadth away from a reversal. We can go through many a winter without seeing such a chart, certainly at this time of the year! Let's hope luck is on our side whilst the atmosphere gets all shaken up.

I am not concerning myself with details in late FI, these will flip flop all over the shop in the coming week or so. The most important thing that we need to occur first, and most models are now consistently going for it, is what is being projected mid next week. The cornerstone, the foundation of any half decent cold spell, namely low pressure digging southwards and ending up below us. Get that in place and with the background signals as they are, the dice are loaded.