Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Duane S.

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,539

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Duane S.

  1. Duane S.
    I am liking it. The ECM 10D is primed and there for the taking. We need to pinch ourselves here, this will be Mid November and we could well be playing hunt the vortex. However, it is the GFS I find even more interesting. It (possibly over-) develops the low out in the Atlantic (and would no doubt send the forum into the depths of despair as we are plunged into a regime of SWerlies / TM!) BUT... short term pain / long term gain. Although not modelled perfectly in the latter stages of the 12z run, that would likely produce a surface high over Scandi and open the door to retrogression as the high is pumped up and we get a WAA burst Westwards towards the Iceland vicinity. The rest would likely follow. That would be nice anyway! :-)
  2. Duane S.
    Best prospects for many a year. To be at this stage of the season with the vortex as weak as it is (and indeed looks to be for a while) is a very good thing indeed. The 12z ECM would go on to produce very nice charts I suspect. It is very likely that going through the second of of November and into December (and beyond) that a colder airmass than the norm will drop well down and stick around in the mid-latitudes (notwithstanding it is hardly warm outside right now). But of course we are in the UK, here it is all about loading the dice. Whatever happens, we will always need some luck. When those windows of opportunities do arise (and they do every winter) we often need to throw a double 6, I get the feeling that, just as in 09/10 and early '10, there will be a few of those opportunities whereby just throwing anything higher than a 7 will suffice :-) Interesting weeks ahead I think...
  3. Duane S.
    Good to see the Westerlies are on the descent once again, I hadn't realised that. From a purely scientific pov it is going to be absolutely fascinating to see whether or not this was just a blip. That we won't know for a while though. The notion that this is climate driven is not a particularly palatable one. If it turned out to be the case (taking into account that it will be nigh on impossible to prove or disprove) then we have a tipping point mechanism in place. The effects on the ground of which in this instance may be anywhere from negligible to catastrophic. By catastrophic I mean set off a chain reaction through our weather drivers, the very worst case scenario. Anyway, highly improbable scenarios aside, personally I don't buy into the purely climate driven angle. The recent El Nino was the strongest to have occurred over the period the QBO has been recorded and there are obvious links between the QBO and ENSO, sat on the equator. I haven't looked yet but if this were to be the case, I would imagine there would be at least a weak correlation between stronger El Ninos events and a slower descent of westerly winds as we returned towards ENSO neutral. Maybe it is all just a big heap of confirmation bias but what with the anomalous Atlantic cold pool and apparent slow down of the Gulf stream, you do have to wonder...?
  4. Duane S.
    Very nice! Looks like a Arcus shelf cloud to me. Would make sense with the weather conditions around.
  5. Duane S.
    Genuinely the biggest drops of rain I have ever seen. Ran the 10 seconds to my car, may as well have leapt into a swimming pool. Some very decent flahes and claps to boot.
  6. Duane S.
    I'm surprised this zonal wind chart has not had any more comments made ref. it. Maybe because we are about to enter March and model weariness has taken its toll, but that is a truly staggering chart! The reprocussions should it ( or something similar) verify will be very interesting indeed to observe.
  7. Duane S.
    Hopefully that's the willy waving over until at least the 18z rolls out. Chill folks, we've got potential on our doorsteps, yep snow flurries look more likely than anything too significant at the mo but it doesn't take a genius to see it wouldn't take too big an upgrade to turn things back in our favour ppn wise. Noone can argue it's going to be a bit nippy though! And here's something I have been waiting for all winter, GEFS mean running below 0 from start to finish for my tropical neck of the woods... Tells its own story that. Some may hate the phase "get the cold in first" but it has plenty of merit. I think it is often used in 2 different but equally relevant ways... Firstly that embedded / entrenched cold (as opposed to freshly arrived cooler air) always helps when it comes to marginal situations. Secondly, simply, get the cold in first and THEN let's see what falls from the sky.
  8. Duane S.
    No real surprise to see the GFS and ECM outputs when looking at the the respective NCEP and ECMWF MJO forecasts of late. Still it is pretty unusual to see the GFS throwing big ridges into the promised land whilst the Euros are less amplified Difficult to call, all to play for though. With the current goings on in the strat, late winter El Niño and the tropical convection where it is, this is the best chance of some proper cold all winter for me.
  9. Duane S.
    Very good 12z suite, if not in its absolute state, in relation to the zonal bulldozer that was being spouted only a few days ago. Trough disruption (and the effects of) is far far from being resolved. I get the feeling we haven't seen the end of the corrections west as the charts roll out towards the weekend. I wouldn't be shocked to see a less deep system emerge and it slipping SE'wards to our SW and through Brittany, all but missing the bulk of the UK. Not a bad outcome as it would likely help lock in the cold for longer ( and of course bring the SW areas into play regards a snow event)
  10. Duane S.
    I am not convinced there will be anything of note this week for lowland UK. However, I am looking at the D8 / Mid-month onwards period as when things could start getting interesting, potentially very interesting. Increasing agreement of energy diving SE into Europe... + with a small westwards correction, some serious fun and games for us whilst it does so, This is likely to encourage pressure build around 65N(ish). The Azores High could then very well become our friend as it will be handily placed to ridge and build something more noteworthy. Could be a second bite of the cherry scenario. It does seem that the worst case likely outcome will be airmass from a predominately W-NW direction. Still far enough out for this signal to be watered down but conversely (and hopefully) upgraded as well. Timing is always a huge factor but I am wondering could we get lucky this around with tropical convection heading into the Pacific at the same time?
  11. Duane S.
    What you are looking at now is in all likelihood about as good as it will get in my view, chaos theory will see to that. The impossible task of having to understand the drivers, their current influence on the atmosphere and most impossible of all, their interactions with each other, i.e. what overrides what, under what circumstances and to what degree. The 'to what degree' is the important part as each degree, and part of, will set us off in a different direction. Difficult enough if we only had 2 drivers on the go but when we have the number we have, forget it, ain't going to happen, ever. Advancements in the future will come in the form of more accurate probability forecasting.
  12. Duane S.
    I'm struggling to understand the dispondancy in here. Putting aside the fact we are now fairly well into the 2nd half of winter official and there is nothing anybody can do about that, the potential heading into Feb is there for all to see, isn't it? The fact that the latest ECM u wind forecast came in at +16 m/s instead of the hoped for reversal at D10 isn't really telling the whole story. The reversal of winds is forecast to make it down to 5mb at 60N + right across from about 72 N to 90N @ 10mb. That tells me it would only take either a relatively small adjustment to change that forecast chart into one that shows an official SSW or that one MAY be just around the corner. But... even if it does only end up being a 'minor warming' I am convinced that if these 10mb temp and epv charts come to fruition (and that looks increasingly likely)... . ... High Level Blocking will be in abundance come mid month and it would then be a case of hoping it sets up in our favour.
  13. Duane S.
    The epv forecast at day10 is quite something. If it could verify and be followed by a bit more of the same, preferably slightly more polewards heading, the FI chart outputs could suddenly start becoming full of HLB promise I would imagine
  14. Duane S.
    I think you may need to read my post again. Putting aside the small fact that the charts in question are yet to not verify (or verify)... 1) In this particular instance, YES, the ECM will likely be proved incorrect with its over amplified output of the past couple of days. 2) And completely unconnected with #1, the GFS remains predominately useless...
  15. Duane S.
    Sorry, whilst your statement that the ECM has moved towards the GFS holds some truth, the only thing leading people up garden paths is the rest of your text. No, the GFS has been woeful at the best of times this winter, specifically during the onset of the early Jan cold spell. The ECM almost certainly will be proved to have over amplified things from its promising output of the past day or two but that should be no reason to give any sort of kudos to the GFS.
  16. Duane S.
    I would say the MJO may possibly have played a bit part? Even though the amplitude was no great shakes, any atmospheric coupling present (I may be wrong but I thought this is more likely mid-tail end of winter in a Nino) could have been the catalyst for the Mid Atlantic ridge with the MJO coming out of the Pacific and into phase 8. My hunch would be though that it must have been aided by the very strong upper-strat wave2 spike that occurred at the end of Jan. This following on from a good period of persistent wave1 activity that would have ground down the previously raging vortex. Maybe it was a case that the timing was perfect with MJO as well? MJO aside, this seems to tie in quite nicely to where we are now with renewed and strong wave1 already underway and signs afoot that a wave2 attack may be on the cards as we head into early Feb.
  17. Duane S.
    The one I have been watching is 1983. Some striking similarities. It shared a very similar ENSO and QBO base state to 15/16 and we experienced increasingly strong zonal winds with wave activity through January 83 putting severe pressure on the vortex (aka Jan 16) before we started to see the consequences not long after in early Feb... It may seem a mile off from most FI charts of present but personally I think it won't be long before charts like this start showing up and eventually verifying.
  18. Duane S.
    This could be one to watch to see if it gathers pace. A wave2 squeeze on the vortex appearing at D10.
  19. Duane S.
    Agreed Nick. As a winter chart, the ECM around D6 is 'meh' at best!! But in relative terms it holds more interest, certainly when weighed up against the woefully flat GFS. Then... there is viewing the chart with the optimistic viewpoint that, with a few Minor adjustments upstream, it could upgrade quite nicely to allow a decent Mid Atlantic ridge to form and to usher in a period of cooler PM air. I'm not overly convinced that the background signals are particularly in our favour for this outcome at that juncture (a bit too soon IMO) but it remains a viable outcome still. So, it will be one to watch this week to see if it gathers any decent support.
  20. Duane S.
    I'd agree with that. The U wind forecast looks very interesting at D10. Still a little way off an 'official' SSW but I wouldn't be surprised to see an ECM forecast pop up in the next few days that depicts one.
  21. Duane S.
    Looks like the vortex is in for a rough ride. Warming up nicely at the top of the Strat on tonight's GFS run. Will be good to see this become a trend and work its way down (down in terms of strat level and down towards day 1)!
  22. Duane S.
    Posted 6 days ago from GP (can't forum quote as now an archive thread) "Unless of course if the trough slides out through the Atlantic south-east being the catalyst for our proper -NAO flip......could well be our torpedo surfacing before it strikes its target." I wonder if the UKMO, and now to a lesser degree most other models, is playing this out? Certainly got a lot of similarities with jan 2013 ( or was it 2012?). The one with the meandering mid-high lat blocking that brought about decent snowfall for many via slider systems.
  23. Duane S.
    Sorry, you've lost me, well done for what again? Have you travelled back from the future?
  24. Duane S.
    Quite agree Mucka. It really doesn't take much of a shift of emphasis to end up with a chart like this. We are a hair bredth's away from some epic charts in the mid term. Got a feeling one of the big 3 is going to pull 1 out of the bag in the next couple of days. Whether it verifies of course, another thing...
  25. Duane S.
    Some of the chart ouputs are hilarious, especially the GFS. I have never seen such an incoherent mess. Mesoscale systems popping up here there and everywhere and ambling off in various directions, others lingering like a bad smell. The FAX charts are probably going to be best guidance but even these are going to be far from infallible with the start data issues being reported at the moment. The ECM catches my attention with the low approach from the SW next Thursday. If that theme continues, it will get very interesting as in amongst the variations on exactly how that would play out is a massive snow event for anywhere in the UK.
×
×
  • Create New...