karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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Karl is having such an unusual track, basically moving southwards towards Mexico.
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Tropical storm Carl has formed.
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We may get a tropical depression in the southern GOM! A tropical low is currently developing.
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6 hours ago, Don said:
Yes, but I guess now is the time when the Hurricane season typically slows down, even though it was late starting? Season as a whole may just reach the average category?
Even if it reaches average it is very underwhelming compared to the forecasts.
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Julia is making a Nicaragua landfall today as a category 1 hurricane. After that, it all looks quiet.
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TD13 continues to hug the Venezuala coast but as it heads westwards it should avoid the land for a while and become Tropical Storm Julia and then possibly get into hurricane strength before hitting Nicaragua. After that it will fizzle out but both the GFS and ECM show the remnants of Julie eventually getting into the southwest GOM. So far the models don't show much of a reorganisation after that but this may change in subsequent output.
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6 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Yes it's over very warm waters at the moment but it needs to shift further north to give it that extra bit of rotation, if it does it could develop very rapidly.
This afternoon the distarbance is looking much more organised and the NHC has upped the chances of development to 60%.
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3 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:
2 areas of interest currently in the Atlantic, are they likely to turn into anything major.
My eyes are on the one southeast of the Windward islands. Although it is currently given less chance of development, is in an interesting position with the caribbean on the horizon.
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10 minutes ago, matty40s said:
Once again we see the storm strengthening more than the forecasts. Only 24 hours ago it was expected to remain a tropical storm until landfall.
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3 minutes ago, FetchCB said:
Interestingly or slightly bemusing is the NHC expect Ian to make landfall as Cat4 despite undergoing RI for last 4 hrs and being so close to Cat 5
Maybe a degree of caution around current measurements?
Yes, I don't know why they still talk about cat 4 when their 7am update says maximum sustained winds 155mph, central pressure 937mb.
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Crazy! And there are still a few hours till landfall.
I think the approximate landfall time is 6pm (UK)
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Impressive that it strengthened so much in just 4 hours!
I think though that cat 5 is unlikely unless he stalls over water for a time before making landfall.
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24 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:
It looks to be turning slightly to the northeast.
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Ian in re-strengthening! The 2pm update from NHC shows 120mph maximum sustained winds and 955mb.
Moving north at just 10mph
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The 11am NHC update shows that Ian has weakened somewhat.
Muximum sustained winds 115mph
The atmospheric pressure has also risen to 963mb
However, he is now back over water and the forward speed has slowed down to just 10mph. From now on he will be a slow moving beast!
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1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:
I think, over recent years, many forecasters have been caught out at the speed of 'rapid intensification'?
I think the depth of water that is hot enough to fuel such is at play as even the Majors now churns up more 'fuel' for further growth?
Yes, that's true. There are several recent examples of the intensification exceeding what the models were predicting.
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3 minutes ago, GSP said:
Cat 3. That’s a lot of very warm water to tap into once it reaches the sea again and do wonder if this could end up a high 4. The ‘experts’ seem to be ruling out a 5, but is it possible.
Good to see the words he and she being mentioned with no hint of gender neutrality. Storms must be immune, for now!
I think cat5 is unlikely because he will not have very long time over the GOM waters. From western Cuba to southwest Florida there is a relatively short stretch of water. If the track was more to the west then there would be more time. But the overnight models (and now also the 6z ones) continue to shift the track a touch further east.
As things stand this morning, the chances for Ian to emegre in the Atlantic (after Florida) have increased.
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10 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:
Ian max sustained winds are 125mph as he approaches Cuba
He will be over land for the next few hours so we will have to see if this will stop the strengthening and to what a degree.
Further strengthening is expected once he emerges over the GOM waters.
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12 minutes ago, Typhoon John said:
There is a red 70% chance of new formation in the next 48 hours out in the Atlantic that needs watching. Still at 70% chance out to 5 days.
Yes but even if a tropical depression forms, it is likely to be short lived because of wind shear. Also, it is expected to start to move north so not of interest to any land.
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There is a notable shift south in most models. As things stand now, I'd say there is more chance for a landfall somewhere around Cape Coral. Tampa must be praying that this is correct as yesterday's ECM was a nightmare for Tampa bay.
ECM, UKMO and ICON then take Ian slowly over the peninsula to the Atlantic coast and then a slow move northwards with a potential landfall in Georgia but a much weaker storm by then.
The GFS out on its own as usual, with a track further north and west but even that has shifted towards the euros to some degree.
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Ian is continuing to strengthen as he is nearing the Isle of Youth just south of west Cuba!
Maximum sustained winds: 100mph
Minimum central pressure: 972mb
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The 12z ECM is similar to the GFS, just slightly further west. The UKMO is on its own with a much more easterly track.
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3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:
Ian will keep his feet in the water as he lashes the whole of the Western side of Florida prior to a predicted landfall in the Panhandle
I would not expect to much of a drop off in intensity if he does keep his core over the gulf?
There is still uncertainty about Ian's track. The 0z GFS and ECM keep him to the west coast of Florida while the UKMO and ICON have him crossing the Florida peninsula and emerging in the east coast. They all agree though that he will be slow moving so flooding is likely to be extensive.
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37 minutes ago, FetchCB said:
That UKMet track must be giving the residents of Tampa nightmares. The worst case scenario is a track slightly to the north of Tampa causing the storm surge to pile up into Tampa Bay causing catastrophic flooding with over 3m homes at risk. Apparently Tampa Bay has not seen that type of flooding in over 100 years
The 12z ECM is very similar to the UKMO and ICON. The GFS is on its own.
Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Late season bonanza with 2 tropical storms, Martin and Lisa! Martin of no real interest to land but Linda should become a hurricane soon and crash into Guatemala.