karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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Ian has not strengthened much so far today, I wonder what is holding him back as conditions look ideal.
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Big differences in the overnight major model output regarding Ian's track!
The GFS is on its own with a much more westerly track, taking Ian over the western tip of Cuba and then northwards with a landfall in the Florida penhandle. The UKMO, ICON and ECM are much further east with a landfall somewhere in the west and big impacts for much of the peninsula (less so for the penhandle).
Ian is still a tropical storm in the caribbean and hasn't developed much overnight but intensification is expected to start today.
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7 hours ago, matty40s said:
The people up top have GOT to take climate change seriously pretty quickly, weather things are happening now which do not compute on normal levels.
Exactly! Such speedy intensification is not normal and it is catching many people by surprise.
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Florida declared state of emergency for next week!
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1 hour ago, Thunder Snow said:
I think Ian will strengthen rapidly
Yes the environment is condusive for that. The track after is not clear but a US landfall for sure.
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Ian is strengthening in the central Caribbean. He should reach hurricane status by Monday according to the NHC, well before making landfall in western Cuba.
Central pressure: 1003 mb
Sustained winds: 45 mph
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3 hours ago, DeepSnow said:
Is there a tropical depression close to the Canaries? I've seen a few forecasts now saying where I am on holiday in Grand Canaria is suppose to get some torrential rain and storms over the weekend associated with a tropical wave/depression?
Tropical depression 10 has formed between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde islands. It is moving northwards currently but it should shift westwards in a few days so unlikely to reach the Canary islands. However, the Canary islands may get some showery activity associated with this system.
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Today, all the models have followed the ECM/ICON lead by shifting the track of 98L east. Cuba-southern Florida-Atlantic.
Only the GFS still takes the storm to the GOM but even that has shifted east considerably.
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Up to this morning all the models were taking 98L to the GOM with a US landfall. However, the 12z ECM and ICON have shifted the track east with the storm passing over Cuba, southern Florida and then the Atlantic. As a result, it develops less due to land interaction.
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1 hour ago, Don said:
It's like it has woken up and thought, 'Oh no, I've overslept' and is now in manic mode trying to catch up!!
It didn't set up the alarm clock!
The question is will the GOM wake up? That's what can produce the creme de la creme of hurricanes. 98L has a chance to make it to the GOM but we will know by the weekend when the system properly forms and the models get a better idea of the atmospheric pattern ahead of it.
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9 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Both GFS and ECM sniffing out action in the GOM
Yes, at long last something meaningful is showing up! Both the ECM and the GFS agree on a hurricane in the GOM in 9 days time! Still very far away of course to have any certainty in this but the NHC has already identified the area of disturbed weather that is currently southeast of the Leeward islands.
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I wonder what it will take to get a hurricane in the GOM. It is completely dead!
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My area has a 30% chance for elevated thunderstorms for this evening. I guess the closer you are to the channel the better.
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39 minutes ago, Don said:
Possibly but like you say, that wouldn't have been much of a hurricane season this year and possibly one of the quietest on record?! However, whatever happens now, I cannot see this being a strong season as was forecast?
Indeed, there should be some activity left for the next few weeks but normally it nose dives in October so a below average season is likely now.
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Have we already seen the peak of this year's hurricane season? If so, then it is the quietest I can remember!
Particularly notable that the GOM has been dead almost throughout.
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I will be in England (Brighton) until the middle of October and that's my main chance to experience autumn. After that Greece for a few weeks so hoping for some Athenian storms but it is more likely to be dry and warm (with the occassional hot day) given recent trends.
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29 minutes ago, Don said:
I think you had some decent rain and thunder in Brighton last night, didn't you?
Yes, 5am I was woken by it! It was raining for much of the morning.
Did you get any?
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Good to see that many areas of Greece have seen some welcome rain! A valuable respite from the ever lengthening fire season.
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35 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Interesting to note la nina increases chance of stronger start. We may go from zero to full on in a short space of time.
Yes, but the start of the hurricane season was nearly 3 months ago.
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The disturbance in the GOM ended up being a flop and the other one in cabo verde looks less healthy today.
We are still waiting for this season to ignite...
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7 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:
The first interesting system of the year is developing. From what I have seen the environment seems conducive for development with the storm not being a sheared mess. Hurricane hunters are out for it as well !
It is organising in the Bay of Campeche. 60% chance of development according to NHC.
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Cloudy with moderate rain in Brighton.
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20 hours ago, Don said:
Like getting blood out of a stone!
It looks like a very quiet August! Quite remarkable under La Nina conditions.
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None of the major models make much of this disturbance.
Major Hurricane Ian.
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
The 12z UKMO and ICON are out. They are in good agreement with the track of Ian, from western Cuba into the southeastern GOM and landfall somewhere in southwest Florida. This is notably further south and east than the NHC which has a penhandle landfall.
Also worth noting that both the UKMO and ICON show a very slow moving hurricane over Florida which would lead to a lot of flooding.