karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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The NHC is now expecting Ida to make landfall somewhere in Louisiana as a category 3!
I wonder if she will slow down a bit in forward speed as she grows larger.
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It looks like Ida will move through the Gulf of Mexico relatively fast. This is likely to limit somewhat its intensification. If she was moving slowly she would have more chance to become a cat4/5
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7 minutes ago, matty40s said:
The models did very well with this one, as did Josh Morgerman who said 3 days ago he could put his passport away for the next biggie!!
Well, they were all seeing development but most models were going for western Gulf hurricane with an eastern Mexico landfall. Gradually they shifted the track further north and east.
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37 minutes ago, matty40s said:
I think Ida will be retired as a name after this one.
Is it possible for a moderator to pull in to this thread the pre depression posts from the last few days, this could be a very notable weather event.
That's a good suggestion. It always feels a bit disjointed to lose the early posts once a storm thread is made. It makes it also easier to analyse how the models did with picking up the system before it developed.
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The gfs is consistent with a Louisiana landfall and it then develops another Gulf hurricane by 240 hours!
With La Nina developing, we could be having a very active autumn ahead of us.
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Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Pretty concerning to say the least. This will be tapping into waters that will add rocket fuel to the system. Most of the GoM is at or above 30c right now.
Yes, but at least it is not heading for poor Mexico which has already suffered a lot from Grace.
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21 minutes ago, Had Worse said:
Hopefully not another Irma in the making. Hector the palm tree isnt up to that sort of pummelling anymore.
It will be a very interesting couple of days of monitoring this storm develop.
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As the system is getting better organised the models are shifting its track further east. A day or so ago the models were going for a Mexico/Texas landfall. Now Louisiana looks more likely but the eastward shift is continuing so maybe states further east in the Gulf will get it.
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The disturbance in the Caribbean is particularly interesting, All the major models develop when it crosses the Gulf of Mexico in a few days time.
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Big drops for regions 3.4 (-0.9) and 3 (-0.6)
La Nina is developing nicely.
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Connecticut and Massachusetts will get many hours of heavy rainfall due to the slow movenent of Henri. Flooding is a certainty.
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Yes, the track has shifted westwards with every update. Regardless of intensity on landfall, Henri is expected to move very slowly over land so flooding could be major given also that the eastern states have seen a lot of rainfall recently.
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The chances of Henri having direct impact to the northeast US have increased today. The NHC is playing catch up with the models and shifted the track further west.
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17 hours ago, matty40s said:
Well he made it, spun off some very feisty weather across the US states and whipped up by the jetstream.
The latest update from the NHC makes Henri a hurricane and most importantly takes him much closer to the northeast US. The GFS is even more excited than that with a landfall in the northeast!
The ECM on the other hand slowly dissipates the storm but it seems to be on its own.
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He looks healthy again! The Florida panhandle is going to get drenched.
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21 minutes ago, matty40s said:
Fred's almost dead, but coming in behind could well be Grace...
Which is now TD7...
She needs to avoid the Dominican Republic, otherwise she will have the same fate as Fred.
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Fred is making landfall on eastern dominican republic. On the current path, he is going to cross the whole of Hispaniola so significant weakening is likely. In fact, only remnants will make it back to the sea and then if he keeps enough distance from Cuba then some slow strengthening is possible back to tropical storm status.
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If this low makes it to northern Turkey, it will cause extreme flash floods due to the mountainous topography catching all that Black Sea moisture. The area between Sinop and Bartin is already accumulating large rainfall totals due to almost stationary thunderstorms.
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16 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:
Last chance? London has already had one of the most thundery summers on record
Yes last chance, the rest of the week has nothing thundery to offer.
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Last chance today for convective/thundery weather. From tomorrow onwards things are looking very boring.
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I took the train from London at 9:30 with soaking rain. From Milton Keynes to Birmingham dry with some sunny spells and now about to enter the next band of rain on my way to Manchester.
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Looking at the radar, London is going to get some action this afternoon.
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33 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
July ONI came in at -0.2 so June may have been the peak.
MJJ ONI came in at -0.4.
CFSv2 is keen to develop La Nina by September.
The only region that is stubbornly warm is Nino 1+2
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3 minutes ago, Don said:
Ok thanks, I will have a read later. Like you say, not good news for those if us who want a quiet sun and we'll just have to hope it doesn't ramp up too much for the upcoming winter! However, it still appears to be relatively quiet compared to many other solar cycles, even if it is more active than forecast, so perhaps all is not lost just yet?
Let's hope so, and at least we had a few spotless days so far this month. We need those to come back.
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Hurricane Ida
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Ida has now 60mph winds and the pressure has dropped to 995mb!
She is looking very healthy too.