karyo
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Posts posted by karyo
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July ended up a very quiet month and things don't look like picking up in the next week or so.
All the forecasts went for an above average season. I guess the Saharan dust is suppressing any activity.
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This is turning out to be the worst summer ever for storms! I have ceertainly seen more storms in cooler summers
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15 minutes ago, tomp456 said:
No storm here,but plenty of rain....at long last !
Just enough rain to dampen the ground here and it has stopped. It looks like that's it for today here.
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Raining in Brighton but no thunder.
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Clouding over now in Brighton as those heavy showers from the channel are approaching.
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38 minutes ago, Dami said:
How times change. I lived 3miles away from the sea growing up and never remember my parents putting a fan on, just opened the windows. I don't remember feeling overly hot in a ground floor flat either. Hope you get some sea mist, it is amazing how cool it makes it!
Yes, I would welcome some sea mist now. Hardly any breeze today so far.
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1 hour ago, Frigid said:
I only got about 5 hrs of sleep, feeling quite drowsy and the heat won't help. Tonight will be a nightmare to sleep in.
Tonight 5 hours look unlikely!
I used to live in Manchester Piccadilly and I know how oppsessive the heat can be in the city centre as there are practically no green spaces.
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A sultry night in Brighton! I took half a paracetamol at about 1am and managed to sleep an hour later. Off and on sleep until 7:30. Tonight will certainly be worse and even Tuesday night doesn't look much better.
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Tropical storm Colin has caught the NHC and the models by surprise! 24 hours ago nothing indicated that those scattered showers on the south Carolina coast would develop into a tropical storm. Colin is now moving northeast to north Carolina.
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So we could have another active hurricane season.
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59 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
Feels like each season arrives a season late. Autumn finally shows up in winter, winter in spring, spring in summer and summer in autumn.
I just wish we could see proper seasonal weather for a change, is that too much to ask for in the UK nowadays? Sure feels like it!
I don't see winter in spring. I think winter has completely vanished as a season. Spring and autumn have extended and taken its place.
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5 hours ago, Don said:
I just wonder what's caused such a strong PV this year? Million dollar question I suppose!
Now the we know that the winter is dead in the water, I hope this super strong pv continues well into spring. It may be proved to be good for the Arctic ice.
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32 minutes ago, Had Worse said:
Nice to have you back.
Are you in the Canaries?
Thanks mate. Yes, for a few more weeks. I wish I was in Greece though haha
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15 minutes ago, Had Worse said:
I had a message from @karyo yesterday and he was saying how Greece had got snow. Seems that they get the best of the weather extremes and we are stuck in the middle with nowt.
Yes, another major snowfall for Athens and the eastern mainland! The Aegean sea becomes a snowmachine with the northeasterly wind. The last major snowfall was February 2021 so not long ago.
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2 hours ago, Empire Of Snow said:
I'm now 10yrs in UK and all summers have been great. I don't get the complaints about summer here and this comes from someone that lived 2/3 of his life in Greece. I certainly don't want UK summers of long 30c+ periods. Even 25c it's unbearable for me over here especially when you have to work and A/C is a rare thing compared to countries like Greece.
I'd say that summer climate in UK is a joy but maybe it's just me feeling this way.
Oh, east Greece is getting battered again right now with snowstorms. This is what I mainly miss and not hot summers.
I agree although quite often the UK summers can be too humid for my liking. But yes, it is good that we are not getting those horrendous heatwaves yet. Sadly, it is only a matter of time with the way the planet is warming.
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8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
Personally feel that teleconnections don't mean a lot now days now global warming is in full steam ahead mode with the warmer continents and sea surface temperatures...not even sure about the impacts of sunspots any more.
Agreed! No matter what the teleconnections show we always end up mild or average at best.
An earlier post mentioned the daffodils flowering already. I remember first seeing this in January 1998 (strong el nino year) and thinking that's a rare event. Well, now it is nearly a yearly occurence as our winters have been taken over by the extension of autumn and spring.
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Worrying update from spaceweather.com
Solar cycle 25 is heating up and the sunspot count is consistently exceeding the official forecasts. In fact, in late December the sunspot count was two times higher than the forecast!
This is bad news for cold lovers and as experts now believe that this cycle will be much stronger than was originally expected. A quiet solar cycle would have helped a bit with global temperatures but now with a stronger sun and CO2 levels continuing to increase, we are likely to see more heat records broken and of course ice loss.
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31 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:
Solar activity too high for EQBO to help out.
I did see someone post a chart here some time back showing what happens to the polar vortex with the QBO and solar activity.
I think it was:
Low solar activity and EQBO = Weak Polar Vortex
Low solar activity and WQBO = Strong Polar Vortex
High solar activity and EQBO = Strong Polar Vortex
High solar activity and WQBO = Weak Polar Vortex
What I can say about this is we could have really done with the EQBO for winter 2020/2021 when solar activity was lower and switched over to a WQBO for this winter, a bit more like it worked out for winter's 2009/2010 (EQBO) with low solar activity and 2010/2011 (WQBO) when solar activity was higher.
Could be if we get even higher solar activity next winter 2022/2023 and the expected WQBO and maybe a predicted Modoki El Nino on top we could be in a better position than this winter.
Even if that happens, another variable can go wrong that can prevent a cold winter from happening. Climate change is extra ugly for cold lovers.
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It looks to me, that the chances of a SSW happening at a time that can salvage what is left of this winter, are fading fast!
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6 minutes ago, chris55 said:
Quite a cold 00z from GFS.
initially northerly flow transfers to a cold high pressure, some cold days and frosty nights for many if it was to verify this way.
Cold side of the ensembles though.
I think the difference is that the GFS operational places that cold high further north. The ensembles have it fuerher south with westerlies over the UK which is closer to what the ECM is showing.
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9 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:
3 - 4 months is a whole season though. And it may be mild but 12°c and pouring rain definitely doesn't make me want to reach for shorts and a t shirt!!
The thing is spring is not 3-4 months away. The days are already growing now and by February the sun gains enough strength to melt any snow that settles (apart from the heavy falls which are rare). This has always been the case but the warming trend that we are experiencing practically makes February the start of spring.
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All the models look poor this morning but the ECM is particularly hard to swallow with the ominous rise of pressure over Iberia! We have seen this happen many times in recent years, this is a very stabborn high and the models are very good at handling it once it appears.
The sun remains very active (www.spaceweather.com). In fact, solar activity in this cycle is exceeding the forecasts and it looks like we will reach solar maximum much quicker than first thought. This is particularly disappointing for me, because the last solar cycle gave us two good winters (2008/9 & 2009/10) and it looks like this one has failed to even give us one!
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2 minutes ago, snow mad said: Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
WWW.SOLEN.INFO
A big uptick in solar activity at the wrong time is my thought on why it’s all gone wrong. I know some will laugh but I have a hunch it makes a difference when a sudden change happens to the output of the sunI couldn't agree more! The sun went from being relatively quiet, one or two sunspots and solar flux in the 70s, to having 10 sunspot groups, M class flares and a solar flux of 137! When the activity increases so much the jet moves north. This has been noticed many times before and it is bad luck that it happened just as we were about to enter a cold spell.
Having such an active sun in December is the worst possible scenario for cold.
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The clear difference with the ECM is that the Atlantic lows manage to enter the Med which helps push the cold westwards. The other major models are not so keenm on this. For example, the GFS only shows a shallower low crossing Iberia but then it fizzles out.
It has been very difficult so far to push the jet stream over the Med (in fact the last few winters have been dominated by high pressure) and I am not sure whether it can be achieved that easily this time. Also, increasing solar activity may sadly work against us with this.
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Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Indeed! August and September are peak months so the quiet can't go much longer. I check the NHC site most days and I can't remember another summer season with such a protracted period without any areas of concern on the map.