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karyo

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Everything posted by karyo

  1. karyo
    That's a good suggestion. It always feels a bit disjointed to lose the early posts once a storm thread is made. It makes it also easier to analyse how the models did with picking up the system before it developed.
  2. karyo
    The gfs is consistent with a Louisiana landfall and it then develops another Gulf hurricane by 240 hours! With La Nina developing, we could be having a very active autumn ahead of us.
  3. karyo
    Yes, but at least it is not heading for poor Mexico which has already suffered a lot from Grace.
  4. karyo
    It will be a very interesting couple of days of monitoring this storm develop.
  5. karyo
    As the system is getting better organised the models are shifting its track further east. A day or so ago the models were going for a Mexico/Texas landfall. Now Louisiana looks more likely but the eastward shift is continuing so maybe states further east in the Gulf will get it.
  6. karyo
    The disturbance in the Caribbean is particularly interesting, All the major models develop when it crosses the Gulf of Mexico in a few days time.
  7. karyo
    Big drops for regions 3.4 (-0.9) and 3 (-0.6) La Nina is developing nicely.
  8. karyo
    Connecticut and Massachusetts will get many hours of heavy rainfall due to the slow movenent of Henri. Flooding is a certainty.
  9. karyo
    Yes, the track has shifted westwards with every update. Regardless of intensity on landfall, Henri is expected to move very slowly over land so flooding could be major given also that the eastern states have seen a lot of rainfall recently.
  10. karyo
    The chances of Henri having direct impact to the northeast US have increased today. The NHC is playing catch up with the models and shifted the track further west.
  11. karyo
    The latest update from the NHC makes Henri a hurricane and most importantly takes him much closer to the northeast US. The GFS is even more excited than that with a landfall in the northeast! The ECM on the other hand slowly dissipates the storm but it seems to be on its own.
  12. karyo
    He looks healthy again! The Florida panhandle is going to get drenched.
  13. karyo
    She needs to avoid the Dominican Republic, otherwise she will have the same fate as Fred.
  14. karyo
    Fred is making landfall on eastern dominican republic. On the current path, he is going to cross the whole of Hispaniola so significant weakening is likely. In fact, only remnants will make it back to the sea and then if he keeps enough distance from Cuba then some slow strengthening is possible back to tropical storm status.
  15. karyo
    If this low makes it to northern Turkey, it will cause extreme flash floods due to the mountainous topography catching all that Black Sea moisture. The area between Sinop and Bartin is already accumulating large rainfall totals due to almost stationary thunderstorms.
  16. karyo
    Yes last chance, the rest of the week has nothing thundery to offer.
  17. karyo
    Last chance today for convective/thundery weather. From tomorrow onwards things are looking very boring.
  18. karyo
    I took the train from London at 9:30 with soaking rain. From Milton Keynes to Birmingham dry with some sunny spells and now about to enter the next band of rain on my way to Manchester.
  19. karyo
    Looking at the radar, London is going to get some action this afternoon.
  20. karyo
    CFSv2 is keen to develop La Nina by September. The only region that is stubbornly warm is Nino 1+2
  21. karyo
    Let's hope so, and at least we had a few spotless days so far this month. We need those to come back.
  22. karyo
    The article does not compare it to SC24, it focuses on the comparison with the forecasts. In fact, they are saying that this cycle may even reach its peak early because of the increased activity. All an all, it is not good news for quiet sun worshippers like us.
  23. karyo
    Some nice towering cumulus clouds have now developed here. Although I am not expecting anything at least they are interesting to look at.
  24. karyo
    It looks like another boring day in the London area. The sky looks quite stable and devoid of convective activity.
  25. karyo
    This cycle is already more active than the forecasts! Look at today's article on spaceweather
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