karyo

What a brilliant 6z gfs! A Scandi high is evident throughout the run and another shot of cold air from the Northeast. Now compare that with yesterday's 6z which had everything blown away by the Atlantic and what you get is a big upgrade. Karyo

Edited as off topic - please post about the media forecasts in the relevant discussion.

What time will the ecm ensembles be out? Karyo

The 12z ECM is even worse than the 00z output. It takes the jet so much further north than the whole of south europe has high pressure. It couldn't have been more different than the UKMO and GFS. Karyo

The ECM refuses to show a proper Scandi high and has a strong low pressure system to the North of Scandinavia. This is something that the 12z gfs has also shown. In fact the 12z gfs,despite showing a brilliantly cold and wintry spell, has also downgratedthe strength of the Scandi high as did the 12z UKMO. Yesterday weve seen most models incrase heights to our northeast but today the trend has been reversed. Karyo

Even though the Scandi high is not as strong in this run, cold hpa values remain in Scandinavia throughout the run and towards the end pressure builds there again. Although this is wellinto FI I think it's important because weather patterns can become repeatitive in February and that'sone repetition that can never become boring for cold lovers! Roger also hintedatthis possibility in his earlier post. Karyo

The orientation of the low is better but the high is weaker.

Yes, the Atlantic is stronger in this run and the Scandi high weaker so the Atlantic wins. Iwas hoping for the opposite. Karyo

What a lovely 18z! It reminds me of last March (I think it was the 12th) when the Scandinavian high managed to push the Atlantic air back westwards. Note in this run that the low pressure that is initially to the north of the Scandi high is a lot weaker and moves around te high without making it slip southeastwards. As a result the high continues to strengthen and the cold air moves back in for us. In a way it is similar to the ECM but with higer pressure in Scandinavia. I agree with TEITS, I'd much rather have a lengthy cold spell than a 2 hour snow event and then rain. Karyo

It has gone from zonal horror to promising, in a matter of 2 days!

I am surprised there are not many comments about the ECM tonight. It looks quite promising with the first low tacking southeastwards and allowig an easterly flow! Karyo

The Birmingham tornado was more significant and it travelled through a large area of the southern part of the city: King's Heath, Moseley and Balsal Heath, although the more widespread damage was in several streets of King's Heath. I know because I was based in Birmingham at the time. Karyo

That's not as bad as I expected and in fact it is not far from GR's and Sm'S winter forecast. I quite like the mentioning to "a return to a more finely balanced situation"! Karyo

The most discouraging part of their winter forecast is that they do not consider a southerly tracking jet as possible (they expect high pressure in southern Europe and low in the North). The possibility for colder weather in late winter although mentioned, is too far out to seriously consider and can be easily canceled in their next update. Having said that, they ould get it wrong and end up with a colder than average winter. Karyo

This is only because low pressure has been near by. No matter how blocked the Atlantic is, there will always be low pressure around and we happen to be next to it (and to the warm side of it too). Karyo

I have to say that with all this blocked weather we've been having I was really looking forward to the coming winter. However, early indications suggest an El Nino event for the winter. Of course it might not happen but the possibility of an Atlantic dominated winter with rain and temperature in double figures is enough to make me depressed. Disappointment is not what I want from my favourite season. Karyo

It is a shame that Chris is weakening. The projected track was for Chris to pass the Florida straits just like Katrina did last year and enter the Golf of Mexico which would have spelt big trouble for the US coast. Oh well, something else will pop up soon but it has to be said that this hurricane season looks a lot quieter than expected. Karyo

I think that the tropics are definately quieter this summer as opposed to the last one. We only had Tropical storm Alberto so far. June had actice tropical waves leaving Africa and entering the Atlantic but the strong seasonal shear prevented them from developing. Current tropical waves in the same region look less impressive. Of course things will become more interesting as we head to the second half of summer with the shear winds decreasing. Overall however, I think that the 2006 Atlantic tropical season will not be an outstanding one and possibly less active than forecasted. Karyo

It may be the summer forecast, but it is always nice to see some encouraging signs for the winter. Always my number one! Karyo