karyo

I totally agree! After all, it was single year ice and the fact that some of it survived and lead to this increase is very important. It would have been unrealistic to expect a massive recovery. Let's take one step at a time. Karyo

That's good! A strong el nino or la nina diminishes the chance for cold winter spells like we've seen so many times. Let's hope it stays neutral. Karyo

At this time of the year, cloud cover can only be good for ice retention/slower melt as the sun is still very strong. The opposite applies to wintertime when clear skies achieve the lowest temperatures. Karyo

Awesome wintry scenes there! I would happily wake up to a covering of snow at any time of the year! There was just a bit of sleet in Manchester overnight. Karyo

Or is the sun weakening? See the thread regarding the lack of sunspot activity making schientists think that the sun strength is on a downward trend! Karyo

Hi Chris, I agree with what you say. Many people tend to instantly react on what a model run with either excitement or disappointment without further investigation. Focusing on one run (say the 12z output) is a good idea but like an addict, I tend to view every output (0,6,12,18z) in the winter. In the summer, I am more likely to just view one output a day as I don't find the weather as interesting. Karyo

You have just nailed it on the head! Obviously as most people are looking for snow/cold they (or we to be fair) tend to focus on that. When the cold is downgraded we always notice. By contrast mild spells don't get as much attention and whether we get 12c or 9c at T0 nobody notices. Karyo

Awesome pictures! The East Balkans do pretty well when a Russian high forms and the winds turn easterly. As the wind crosses the Black sea, it picks up moisture and dumps loads of snow especially in Bulgaria and Romania. I was in Budapest, Hungary, last month, which is further west and bands of snow made it there from the East although not as much as now. Karyo

When I first read the forecast I thought 'not too bad' as a slightly above average winter is better than what the Met Office are predicting. However, I then saw the chart with the dominant Azores High controlling our weather and thought 'oh no'! I'll take a cool anticyclonic month anytime than Atlantic dominated! Karyo

Thank you for the updates and wonderful photos Carinthian. I am impressed by the amount of snow that there is already. I hope the weather remains cold. Karyo

I don't like the projected track as it should stay away from the US. On the other hand, at least Mexico and the Carribean will get a respite after Dean and Felix. Karyo

Yeap, that's the one! Karyo

That would be a disastrous December with Russia and Eastern Europe 3 degrees above average. It would mean that the only wintry incursions would be rare and from the Atlantic! Thankfully, the last winter's lrf was wrong and hopefully this one will be too. Karyo

Saturday should be the last day where a small rise is expected. From Sunday the cooling trend begins. Karyo

Key to their forecast is the placement of the high pressure to the west of the UK. As I said earlier, this can allow n/nw incursions from time to time. Also, the high pressure in the latter part of autumn can suppress temperatures significantly with fog and frost. Karyo

That's not a good summary I'm afraid Gavin! They are actually expecting the high pressure to be centred in the Atlantic so no Euro high this time! They say temperatures likely to be above average but cooler than last Autumn - they always say above average anyway. The set-up they describe should give northerly incursions from time to time. It's a matter of the Atlantic high linking with Greenland. Karyo

Very good news! This will prepare us nicely for winter - no anomalous warmth, no southwesterlies, no high ssts. The bad news would have been for a Euro High and a rampant northern arm of the jet. Karyo

Well, the US has managed to dodge Dean so it is only fair that the next storm system will affect them. I just hope that the system won't shift northwards and all the warm moist air towards us. Karyo

I am not really into hurricanes but I have to say the satellite images of Dean look absolutely impressive. What I find disappointing though, is that Dean is affecting all the poor countries that will take long to recover (Leeward islands, Jamaica, Mexico) and leaves the wealthy and overpolluting USA unaffected! Oh well, maybe the next one... Karyo

I was watching a documentary on discovery channel a few months ago which mentioned that Antartica was covered by rain forests. The documentary was about dinosaurs in different parts of the world. The documentary said that there was frost and snow only during winter and only for short periods of time. The Artic was not mentioned but I assume that the Antartic was best for snow thanks to the large land mass. Karyo

I agree totally and yesterday was the perfect example. It ended up reasonably warm here (the first warm day since last weekend) and I thought that the night would also be milder than previous nights. However, after 9pm the temperature dropped suddenly thanks to the clear skies and we had another chilly one thanks to the duration of the night. As you say, in June/July the temperatues wouldn't be so low because the nights are shorter - it starts brightening up after 3am! Karyo

Your keen interest in protecting the Artic (and generally the few remaining unspoilt parts of the earth) is refreshing and inspiring! We are all weather enthusiasts and the weather is linked with the environment so we should aim to protect it. Unfortunately, most people are more likely to go shopping than take action. I think that the view that 'it won't make any difference' is wrong and defeating. One way of taking action is to become member of environmental organisations such as WWF or Greenpeace as they can voice our concerns. Karyo

I am delighted to see a below average July. From April 2006 till April 2007, it felt like a significant event to get a below average day never mind month! Let's just hope that it won't take us another year to achieve a below average month. Karyo

WSI has issued a revised forecast which expects less tropical activity than they initially expected a few months ago. WSI is a private forecasting company. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070724/sc_nm/...es_forecasts_dc It will be interesting to see if NOAA will follow with a revised forecast. Karyo

I have to say that no matter how much I am worried about global warming I agree with what you say. The expectation was that Summer 2007 would be one of the hottest thanks to the way this year started and especially April's weather but looked what happened. We may even have a below average July CET. Karyo