karyo

Snowing again here now. Adding to the earlier dusting. Karyo

I haven't had any more snow over the last hour. In fact clear spells have developed. The satellite however is picking up a lot of activity now in Lincolnshire and Yorkshire and i think we'll have further showers from 9pm onwards. Karyo

I went out shopping for a couple of hours and there were flurries of snow on and off in the gusty wind but no settling. Then on my way back i got caught in a heavy snow shower. Small and thick powdery flakes which led to a dusting everywhere. My balcony has turned white with no thawing. The met office radar is a picture! The showers frequent and getting heavier. They seem to be crossing the Pennines with no effort. I think most of us will have a covering by the morning. Also, have a look at the satellite pics to see the clouds gathering pace in Belgium, Holland and Germany. They are tomorrows snow! Karyo

It's nowcasting from now on! Already we are getting heavier showers than expected by the forecasts. We should do really well even if the east does better still. Karyo

The 2:30pm met office radar shows a streamer along the Humber that should provide interest for Greater Manchester soon. The heaviest showers are in south Lincilnshire, Nottinghamshire and the Midlands in general. Karyo

The shower has now passed to the west. It lasted nearly 15 mins. The hills to the east can be seen now and they hae a dusting. No more showers from the east for the ime being as there is a gap as can be seen on the radar. I have taken the photo on my mobile showing the flakes on the moss of my balcony. Karyo

This is a moderate snow shower. I was not expecting such intensity so soon and it is starting to stick! The Pennines don't manage to weaken the showers much guys. Excellent news! Showers like this overnight will lead to a covering. Karyo

Horrizontal snow now! :lol: Karyo

The heaviest snow shower of the day so far! Lovely medium sized flakes. The hills have disappeared from my view. Karyo

Your temperature is 2c higher than mine! I would have expected you to be a bit colder with the wind coming from the East (miniman sea effect). Light snow continuing here and we've passed the snow grain stage - the flakes are nicely fluffy! Nothing settling at this stage although the flakes take their time to melt when they hit my balcony. Karyo

I have to say this is turning out much better than expected! The bbc local forecast was going for a dry day with plenty of bright spells. We are only getting light flurries at the moment but it is so important that they make it over the Pennines. Yorkshire and Lincolnshire ae starting to get heavy snow showers so hopefully some moderate falls for us in the next few hours. Worth watching the satellite as well - it shows the speckled clouds over the North sea getting more organised as the colder upper air digs in. Karyo

Light snow falling here as well. It bodes well for later as this is just a light band of precipitation and it still made it over the Pennines. Karyo

hi everybody, the countryfile weather was the best i've ever seen! Significant upgrade in terms of precipitation. They showed a lot of snow showers crossing the Pennines in the latter part of today and especially tonight! Yes, the heaviest stuff will be to the east of the Pennines but even ith some moderate falls we should get a nice covering by the morning, helped by the sub zero temperatures. Then heavy snowfall from the southeast moving north tomorrow late afternoon will bring some heaier snow and we should avoid the noisance of sleet or rain according to the forecast. In fact the forecaster didn't nebtion anything else apart from snow for this event! Dry on Tuesday with 3c so some slow thaw but still hopefully with plenty of snowcover left. After that a wintry mix was shown in places with a stalling front over the midlands. Of course, the exact position of front and precipitation for later in the week is not decided yet. The wintry theme continues for the end of the week with fronts from the north bringing a wintry mix. All and all, a classic countryfile forecast. Currently here, it is turning cloudy agai after a sunny slot. There is band of light snowfall on the Pennines and i expect to see a few flakes in the wind here in a bit. But as i said above, the heavier snow showers won't affect us till much later. Karyo

That's an interesting observation and certainly quite often one major strqtospheric warming is followed by others! This happened for example late last winter. The difference this time, is that the stratospheric temperatures are not falling quickly after the main event but very slowly which is a good things for more long lasting effects (i.e. northern blocking). I wonder what do the experts think about the possibility of further warming events occuring into February? Edit: i've just read GPs and SMs posts in the model output thread - potential for further warming events to be trigerred. Karyo

It's a great relief to hear you are ok! By the way, i don't know what i would do without internet access for 3 days... Karyo

It is a good morning indeed! I have to say things are looking better every day! As already mentioned, the stratospheric warming has already started and the zonal winds are not only expected to go negative but also stay negative: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...xes&alert=1 Also, as tundra mentions, it will be interesting to see to what extend the Met Office will take into consideration this warming in their update for February. Karyo

Yes, it has been updated - i visit it every day! I often find that it doesn't directly correspond with the ECM forecasts but picks up the same trend. For example, this can be seen from November's minor warming. Anyway, as you say it should show a steep rise in the next couple of days! Karyo

The forecast looks very promising but we need to see a rise occuring here as soon as possible: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html Hopefully, it will start showing in the next day or two. Karyo

It's always a good practice to be cautious with forecasts in general. However, the stratospheric ones have a good rate of accuracy and success. Last year's events were forecasted very well with only minor changes. Besides, this stratospheric warming event is expected to begin in a couple of days, so the margin or error is very small. Karyo

hi Tamara, i think last year's first warming was not reflected much on the 30hpa level hence we had to wait for the 2nd and 3rd to see the results. This year, the warming is also expected to affect the 30hpa so fingers crossed. I am also hoping for further episodes of warming during February so as to see a cold start to spring. Karyo

That's still a significant stratospheric warming! As for the zonal winds, this is the first time they are expected to turn easterly since the beginning of this period (Nov 1st). Even the slightly above average stratospheric temperatures of November resulted under a period of westerlies. So we should do better this time! Besides, GP in one of his posts (post 161 to be exact) said that zonal wind anomalies in the 25-30m/s mean value are 'acceptable'. I am very pleased with the current forecast and hopefully this will be the first in a series of warmings like it happened last year. Karyo

It looks spectacular, doesn't it? The truth is it has happened before. I think the last significant warming was February last year which lead to northern blocking in March and April. This resulted in the potent wintry spells we experienced in the first half of spring. This time, the warming is occuring earlier which is good news. The excellent news is that the lower part of the stratosphere (30hpa) is also likely to be affected as this was a bit of a concern in the last couple of days. Karyo

Indeed, this is what happened last year, an initial warming was fallowed by a few others which gradually had an impact on the 30hpa level. Besides, even November's minor warmings allowed enough blocking to develop for the cold spells in December. Karyo

Absolutely, i am not expecting any positive effects before mid February at the earliest as my post states. My optimism is also based on the drop of zonal winds which should encourage a significant stratospheric warming. The next few days should hopefully show this. Until then, some cold zonality or northwesterly episodes will be our best chance for cold and snow. Karyo

Yes, yes, yes! This is what we've been waiting for: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1 The beginning of a significant warming event! Coupled with a major drop in zonal wind anomalies: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...xes&alert=1 If this happens, the second half of February and March look promising! Karyo