karyo

Nice to see the stratopheric zonal winds expected to reduce considerably hopefully signalling a further recovery of the stratopheric temperatures. Karyo

That's some good news and hopefully the first signs of a warming event that many of us are hoping/praying for! It doesn't even have to be a major one, just to edge the temperature upwards a bit closer to average for the time of year. This can be enough to slow the jet a bit and open the door for the latter part of February and March. Karyo

hi guys, just a question from me. What are your thoughts for end of winter early spring? We often get some decent wintry events in March and i wonder whether you expect this to be the case again this year. We have the developing La Nina which favours cold spells in the start of spring but as the La Nina is developing quite late this year in comparison to the last one, will it still bring those early spring cold spells? Thanks in advance and well done on your efforts so far! Karyo

No idea but it is interestingly accompanied by a small rise at the 90N. Worth watching over the weekend. Karyo

Thank you for the update. A grim outlook! Karyo

That would be a blessing. A stratospheric warming event mid January would considerably increase our chances for northern blocking and cold outbreaks in February (especially the 2nd half). I have everything crossed! In the meantime, mid latitude highs will be our best chance for cold. Karyo

Very surprised to see snow falling and settling in Manchester city centre (on untreated side roads and pavements). I was just expecting rain and sleet! Karyo

Light snow is falling in Manchester on and off. There picture varies significantly from place to place. When i left my flat in the city centre there was just a little bit of icing on the cars but around the Brewery (Hulme) it was like a winter wonderland with a covering everywhere. As i continued my journey to work some areas had nothing but Wythenshawe which is where i work has a covering. It looks like kids took a spray overninght and painted everything white! Temperature at midday is -3c so i should conmfortably record another ice day! A wonderful way to finish 2008! Karyo

Fantastic news! I was expecting a backtrack from them but not to such an extend! What happened to the above average January and February? I'm really pleased with the above average rainfall and temperature forecast for Southeast Europe indicating low pressure there preventing the High pressure further north from sinking! It sounds like an easterly month. And then February doesn't sound bad either - near average. This means potentially another interesting winter month. Karyo

In terms of the North Pole, the stratosphere is well above average, as the link i posted earlier indicates. For the Northern hemisphere as a whole it is slightly above. As for Jack Wales's post, it shows where exactly the warm and cold anomalies exist. That's how i read them anyway. Karyo

Quite warm at the moment! http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html The stratospheric temperature over the North Pole is way above normal at present. The forecast is still expecting this to be the peak with a small cooling in the next few days and then another small rise. Overall things are currently looking fine. Karyo

As long as it continues yes! But the forecast is showing flactuations in the stratospheric temperatures so i am not sure whether the curent warming will be enough to cause significant blocking in January. Karyo

The current state of the stratosphere is looking quite good! We are experiencing a considerable warming event: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html A look in the forecast shows that this warming will be followed by a a small cooling but temperatures should remain at just above average for the time of year: http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1 Certainly a lot better than the last 2 years when November and especially December were characterised by major cooling events. Karyo

Very interesting discussion topic! The weather certainly rules my life from October to April as there is chance for cold and wintry weather! I find myself spending a considerable time every day at home and work, examining the models, radar etc. During the summer months my weather interest is suppressed. I find summer quite boring to be honest and therefore i spend more time on other interests and catching up with my neglected friends! Karyo

Oh dear, the word snow has disappeared completely! Karyo

Hi Stephen, yes the cold air is arriving with the clear skies. I also expect a good frost tonight and some ice by morning! Karyo

The good news keep coming. Net weather was the first to predict a below average December and they continue to do so with the Met Office joining at last. The most encouraging thing though is that even January doesn't look particularly mild especially if you think on recent years! Also, really good to have a possibility for a cold February too - nothing worse than an early Spring! Karyo

You certainly do John but I remember last winter the forecasts were a lot more reliable! Karyo

I am surprised to see another slight warming event occuring! http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html This goes against the forecast for a cooling event. http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1 In fact stratospheric temperatures have been generally above normal since the beginning of November. Could this be enough for Northern blocking to occur in the second half of November? Karyo

After a period of normal to slightly above normal temperatures http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html the stratosphere is expected to become colder in the coming days... http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mps&alert=1 Let's hope it doesn't last long because if it does it's bad news for December! Karyo

Obviously GP knows a lot more about this, but in February we saw similar sharp and short stratospheric warming events that led/contributed to the cold spells we experienced in March and April. It was a case of one happening after the other, so i think all eyes should be on the stratospheric temperature link in the coming days! http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...e/pole30_n.html Karyo

Don't worry GP is keeping a close eye on this. The stratospheric temperatures have jumped to well above normal. Even with the drop yesterday, the temperature is still above normal so let's hope that this continues especially with the negative wind anomalies over the North Pole, as GP explained yesterday. Hopefully we'll see the results of this when it really matters (around December)! Karyo

It sounds like a direct copy of the last 2 winters but milder still! It sounds overly pessimistic but i agree about the stratospheric cooling coming... Karyo

The full reasoning around why Sudden Stratosphere Warmings occur are complex and multifactorial. GP, the NW teleconnections guru has probably one of the best understandings in this field. He has suggested in the past that intense tropical convection in the Indian Ocean leads to powerful downstream anticyclones. This creates fast Rossby Wave Dispersal events which, if allied to a weak zonal wind anomaly, are a precursor to stratospheric warming events. The intense tropical convection is triggered by above average SSTs in that area.

I have to say, the above chart makes my stomach turn. A complete absence of below average temperatures from the entire continent! My advice for this winter is expect very little and hopefully one or two nice surprises might happen! Karyo