karyo

Elsa has weakened to a tropical storm as she passes just to the south of Haiti. The northwesterly direction is expected to take her over Cuba in the next couple of days.

Only the GFS (up to the 0z) has been keen to make Elsa a hurricane. The other models are not keen on making much of this storm. Ironically, the 12z GFS has considerably toned down the strength of Elsa although it keeps the same track as before.

She is moving so fast, quite unusual for a hurricane. Usually strengthening leads to a slow down in forward speed but it doesn't seem to happen with Elsa.

Elsa has strengthened into a hurricane! She is the earliest fifth storm on record and likely to remain a hurricane up to Dominican Republic then back down to tropical storm due to interaction with land.

Yes, an above average season is expected. The models so far don't make much fuss about it but this can easily change.

The second area in mid Atlantic is getting better organised. The NHC is now giving 80% chance of development by the end of the week as it moves west/northwest towards the Caribbean.

Very alarming to see all those records shattered and of course there is loss of life associated with the extreme heat! According to bbc news there have been 130 sudden deaths since Friday

Big drop in regions 3.4 and 4 in the last week! The SSTs anomaly went from 0.0 to -0.5c What caused such a sudden drop? It goes against the models forecasts for June.

The lightning was tremendous!

We now have Claudette, the third named storm of the season. It will all quiet again very soon though with nothing else in the tropics to attract the eye.

The NHC now gives an 80% chance of development for the disturbance in the bay of campeche.

Activity has picked up in the tropics with three areas of interest! The Bay of Campeche system has now 60% chance of development for the next five days as it slowly moves north. However, the models don't look very interested at present. A tropical wave has emerged from Africa and it is currently south of Cabo Verde. It looks healthy and has a 20% chance of development in the next couple of days before entering an unfavourable environment in central tropical Atlantic. And out of the blue we may get a tropical depression by tonight. There is a developing low east of North Carolina but it is expected to move over colder waters by Wednesday.

The NHC is giving a 40% chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche/GOM in the next 5 days. The models pick this up from about 140 hours onwards but don't look interestied in developing it to anything more than a tropical storm. The SSTs are around 27-29c which is above normal for June. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php

The 0z ECM has a low forming in the Bay of Campeche at 144 hours and then moving north to the Texas/Louisiana border by 192 hours. The 0Z GFS is much more excited as it strengthens the system to a hurricane moving slowly along the Texas coastline.

Cyclone Yaas is expected to hit parts of northeast India midweek.

Yes, the Indian Meteorological Department is expecting this tropical depression to develop fast into a cyclone. https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php

Yes, the forecasts so far point to an active hurricane season.

I was looking at the models the other day when I noticed this typhoon which made me think it was unusual to see one this time of the year. I asked my friend in Japan if they ever had a typhoon this time of the year and he said no. Obviously this one won't hit Japan as it is expected to track northeast but impressive to see nonetheless.

The photos from the La Soufriere eruption are epic!

Beautiful picture!

Do you know of any satellite images that cover the St Vincent island? I find them very helpful in assessing the eruption and the area that the plume covers.

Thank you Rush! Yes, the Athens snowfall was something else.

Lovely to see snow here in April and a real bonus for me having spent the winter in warmer countries.

Snowing nicely in Piccadilly.

The showers have returned here but this time it is mainly sleety rain with some hail mixed in.