Roadrunner

That was my thinking too. Akin to what Matt said above, the Met app has changed for the better for my location as well. Baby steps. I'm ignoring the GFS for now as it doesn't show me what I want it to

John is it fair to say that there will be some head scratching in Exeter this morning or do you think they'll be sticking to their guns. They seemed very bullish about a decent weekend overall and knowing the importance of the forecast for people they'd want to make sure all the i's are dotted etc. They obviously have access to more than us so hoping their earlier forecasts will be on the money still. Kold, you are right. I've seen these lows dissappear into France many times - let's hope this happens again!

What I've found is nothing is ever as bad as predicted by the models this far out. Sweeping statement I know but that's just from personal experience. For example, in my location last night said I'd be getting rain most of the day - it's dry here and while not brilliant sunshine it's definitely not disgusting! Also shows on Met Office app that the threat of heavy rain for this afternoon has subsided somewhat - yes, I know, apps are useless but I find give a good idea what to expect, plus the Met one is the best out there I find. We're always told on here by people more knowledgeable than I that small changes have big impacts down the line - not sure what needs to happen to keep those lows at the weekend at bay but there is plenty of time for things to change for the better. I hope you get good weather for the wedding, keeping everything crossed for you.

That's what puzzles me! They never usually commit so heavily unless they are very sure about a forecast. One last straw to grab is, if things can get worse so quickly they can also get better. Guess it would be boring though living somewhere where you could guarantee good weather for outdoor events or guarantee snow in winter!

What is odd is the Met / Beeb forecast which one would assume uses data from the 12z suite does not match up to these latest runs. They obviously have access to a lot more data than us so I'm pinning my hopes on that. Time's a ticking though for the jubilee...

Yes indeed and with the family and I coming camping in Winchester over the weekend I for one will be hoping it's dry on Sunday morning when we pack away - nothing worse than packing away in the rain or with a wet tent and having to endure an erection at home. FWIW the Met week ahead outlook seems pretty good - just need that nose of high pressure in the west to put up a decent fight against those pesky lows and all should be well. Fingers crossed. I keep telling myself to not look at the weather apps as most are unreliable at best - the BBC one says rain for Sunday morning . Her Majesty has ordered dry weather however so I'm expecting a nice 4 day bank holiday

Let's hope thw low is booted out of the way sooner rarher than later. Surely her majesty has a say in this sort of thing!

Can someone with more knowledge than me (probably most on here) explain if there is a chance this low could be kept more out west? Anyone familiar with these set ups and have knowledge if the models struggle with them or over egg eastward movement?

Wow the output at the moment is truly astonishingly bad for the jubilee. It is unbelievable how unlucky we'd be to get this again almost 10 years to the day. Still a week to go but if things don't improve in the output during the next few days there will be a few street parties being cancelled. Such a shame. I need a straw to clutch.

Yes, models all over the place at the moment as mentioned before. I still think there's hope for the jubilee weekend to be honest. Even if not 25 degrees I'd personally take it being dry - you can always stick a hoodie on at a street party! This is far from over, but then again I am an optimist - bit like Mr Snow above!

Well I am still thinking positively that we'll get some usable dry weather for the long jubilee weekend. Nothing set in stone yet.

As long as this Jubilee isn't akin to the horror show that was the one in 2012 I'm ok with it. We're going camping that weekend near Winchester so fingers crossed!

Looks like a fantastic few weeks coming up just as summer starts. More importantly, the weather in Bournemouth this weekend looks very usable indeed and hoping for some great views across the English Channel when I play golf at Isle of Purbeck on Saturday (@Alderc I'll wave at you from the 5th tee!). Thanks to everyone who has advised me regarding the weather for the upcoming weekend - looks like it'll be a good one!

I hope so @Alderc, especially around Bournemouth! Come on the sun!

Thanks both for the replies. Have got a few days golf coming up in Bournemouth 4th - 6th which has been 5 months in the planning through the dark days of lockdown. I can handle cooler, or even hotter! Just don't want it to be a washout - that would be so disappointing. FWIW it doesn't look too bad at the moment but if that low could just do one I'd be much happier!

With regards this type of low, does any one particular model handle this type of set up better than others historically? I. E. More accurate?

Control was always my favourite. If Poch can come back home then the weather can stay settled - miracles can happen!

In the words of Victor Meldrew: "Just when you think things are never going to get any better, they suddenly get worse."

It's a real kick in the proverbials. Obviously can't go into macro details but the theme doesn't look great. Obviously still a lot can change but what I don't know however is how accurate these Met Office long rangers are in general and how much notice we should really take of them. Hoping someone with more knowledge than I can assist.

Well that's just made my day. Bleedin' christ.

Crane Valley, Isle of Purbeck and Bulbury Woods. Any tips?

Well I do hope this does not come to pass. Am down Bournemouth way playing golf weekend 4th - 6th June and to be fair, I'd just take it being mostly dry at the moment. Can anyone give me a shred of hope to hang on to?

Surely this pattern change we're all so desperate for has to change as we head into June. 1st onwards, although FI, still look promising on some of the output. As someone mentioned before, models do tend to flip flop when they detect a change coming. If that's the case let's just hope it's a good one! I certainly don't want a start to June like the jubilee weekend in 2012. Fingers and toes crossed.

@Jon Snow I need some of your positivity this morning! Just need the first weekend in June to be dry and sunny in Bournemouth due to a golf weekend I'm going on. Give me some hope mate - please!!

As I'm sure has been mentioned before, this really has been a pretty lousy spring. Is there any signs of more settled weather for the first week in June and the half term break?