Roadrunner

Said it before but weather apps on your phone are very poor. Not showing much at all for my area still with best I could find being 2cm for Tuesday. Really?

Not overly concerned but the met office app showing very little snow for my location (Romford) for Monday - Wednesday. How do these apps get their data as it totally goes against the models? I know these apps are useless in this situation but even so you'd think they'd show a bit more snow than they do.

Can i ask a quick question. Will the ground be frozen over Sunday morning (Brentwood)? Trying to plan around the kids football being on or not due to hard frost!

Just a quick bit of advice to anyone that pops into the MOD thread and sees people getting in a tiz waz about downgrades. Rule of thumb i've found is to look at their location (not easy to do if viewing on mobile phone, granted, but when on a desktop it's there in plain sight). Reason being, and although some see the overall picture for the whole UK, we all really are only interested in snow for our location and not someone, in our case, who lives in the NW of England or Ireland for example. Generally with an Easterly incursion, we in the SE are in one of the prime positions and i see no evidence why this shouldn't be the case again this time around. Whether it's a repeat of 1991 remains to be seen but here's hoping. Good luck to all and please, come Monday/Tuesday, look up from your phones, ipads and laptops and take a look out the window - it may just be snowing outside... ...so get out there and go build a snowman!

This morning, as with most mornings for the last week, i view this forum and model output through my fingers. Having been here for well over a decade, i have seen let downs, dramas, teddy throwing, pats on the back and a whole host of emotions i never knew were possible! As i've said on here before, i've seen situations where it felt like you were going on a Tinder date where the profile picture was Margot Robbie and when you get there Susan Boyle is waiting for you. I am sure this will happen again and again but i (we) keep coming back for more. To my very novice eye we are on the cusp of something very, very special here. It would be better if the ECM was totally on the same page but as we've been told many times there will be model volatility until they settle on the final outcome - one would hope that this is sorted one way or the other by the 12z suite Tuesday. I learnt a long time ago to try to not get caught up in the hyperbole or for that matter get too downbeat when things get downgraded. It wasn't too long ago that i saw a few "winter is over" posts. Well, winter is about to bite back in its final act for this season. So pull down the restraint bar, clip in the safety buckle and enjoy the ride people but remember, it's only weather.

Well I'm in the doghouse. The missus was trying to get 'romantic' this morning but I was too busy watching the ECM roll out. She now going garrety and thinks I'm cheating on her with a weather model. She just doesn't understand. Why did I marry this woman? In all seriousness, stunning stuff over the last 24 hours. In the words of GP - IT'S COMING.

Regardless of what it is, the fact remains it is touted as a medium range model (expert ?). Just saying!

Just putting this out there. ECM is an acronym for European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For the period we're looking at for this easterly would that not make the ECM the 'expert'? Possible straw clutching and well aware this is a unique situation but even so. I guess we'll know soon enough.

Would be interested to see if NOAA bin the ECM. I'd have a look myself but actually have no idea what they are talking about half the time. It's like a different language!

It would be good to get the experts measured opinion on here re the ECM before @nicksussex gets inundated with orders for prozac!

Was there a SSW prior to February '91? May have been answered previously so apologies if so. I also remember around the time we had the snow nirvana that year, the Eastern seaboard of the USA had quite high temperatures for the time of year. May mean nothing at all - then again my knowledge is very limited!

I do wonder how the models would have handled the great easterly of February 1991. I wonder what they would have shown with each run day to day leading up to it while getting a grip on things. Would have been fascinating to watch it unfold. I wonder what ups and downs there would have been on here as we got nearer to 0z and at what point people would have said "nailed easterly!". Will be interesting in the coming weeks to see if there is any chance such idyllic charts will appear as we head into February. That indeed would be nirvana.

Met Office still showing heavy snow for most of the day here. Pfft.

And a strategically placed lamppost Nick I bet!

Light snow here in Brentwood.

Hi all. I don't post here much. Mainly because my chart reading skills are still basic amateurish at best, even though I've been a member since 2004. Wow has it really been that long?! What I have noticed in that time (and even before then when I was a member of the BBC snow watch site where I used to wait with baited breath for Nick Sussex's updates - remember those days Nick with Dave Allen, Bill Farkin, Grebes etc?!) is that the model runs chop and change daily with not ONCE a smooth journey to any weather pattern whether that be blizzards in the winter or scorchers in the summer. Each winter I try to not get excited by stellar model runs and the ensuing comments until the good stuff is still showing at T-24. I always fail miserably! Whatever happens this winter, I will be glued to the forum in the hope that just for one day I'll be able to use the damn sledge I bought my son that's been gathering dust in the shed for a few years now. I do often wonder though if there was a similar weather forum that covered, say, New York and the NE / great lakes states, whether they go through the range of emotions we all do during winter when the models flip and flop. Obviously for places like Buffalo they are probably almost guaranteed snow at some point so their stress levels are no doubt much lower than ours! Anyhow, looking forward to spending the crazy season with you all and whatever the outcome - enjoy the ride, even if you don't get what you want, it's only weather.

As others have said, a lot of the eye candy charts appear at day 10. It's like being promised a date with Margot Robbie in 10 days time, turning up at the pub at said time all excited only to be greeted by Susan Boyle.

Anyone brave enough to say whether the possible snow this week / weekend will be better than the dusting we got a few weeks back for our region?

Gutted to hear of the passing of Ian M. I hope the mods will allow me to post this memorable forecast in memoriam to the great man. I remember this well.

William I feel your pain. Typical isn't it that the weather sometimes seems to conspire to spoil anything that you're planning to do outside! I too am hoping for dry weather as we're off camping in East Sussex. Only thing I can say is I've been following the GFS rainfall charts (I know some don't rate these but I've always found them most useful) and with each run and for the area I'm interested in it seems to be pushing the heavier rain more to the west. While this doesn't help you for where you are going, if this does keep adjusting then things may look better. I am in no way an expert and still learning. Do enjoy this model watching, even though sometimes it is painful!

John, am I right in thinking things are still looking poor for the weekend then!

Need advice you lovely people. Supposed to be camping in East Sussex at the weekend and have been following the models closely and Sunday seems to be getting worse with each run. What are the chances this could change again with this sort of set up? Any chance of it being dry?

Thanks for that summary, Singularity. I too am hopeful of a good next weekend or at least dry as we're going camping in East Sussex. Seems like it will be warm at least and here's hoping the rain stays away as camping in the rain, or at least packing away a wet tent, is not fun!

Anyone care to make a forecast for Sunday for Harlow,Essex area? Wash out or showers? Every weather site shows a different forecast!

As currently modelled, will any rain that falls next weekend be in the form of showers or persistent rain? Or is it too early to say if anything substantial will occur? Reading all the posts it would seem no one model is to be trusted or followed?