Roadrunner

Great post as always Steve. A question for you or Kold. Would you include Romford area as a high risk area for snow at the weekend? Think we may miss out tomorrow other than a dusting. Not sure what direction of flow is best for me??

I'm expecting BBC late night forecast to go with mild SW'lys and 20 degree heat, just to cover their backs! Recon Romford won't see any snow, the chavs here just won't be able to fight in the streets with snow on the floor.

Channel 4 weather at 8pm just had snow over London and SE for tomorrow from lunchtime onwards plus snow in EA & SE for Thurs and Fri. just goes to show either no-one knows whats gonna happen or the BBC are, as usual, crap.

Yeah just saw that Nick, cheers. If ECM continues the GFS "trend" i'll be worried a little but for now i aint panicing yet after hearing NOAA's observations. A Feb 91 event would be great but just a decent snow cover would do for starters.

ECM 12z for me has been the most consistent so far this winter. I see Metcheck has a warning out now

All take note in bold above from Nick. If NOAA are discounting something then you are advised to listen! I aint got a clue what they talk about on NOAA as it's like they talk a different language. Thank god Mr Sussex has passed the GCSE in NOAA talk!

Cheers Nick, i should have added that does the atlantic play its part for NYC and Washinton DC - my geography isnt that bad!!! Cheers for the answer pal and hope the orders for prozac are kept at a minimum over the next few days.

Dave dont you think though that the 12z has been the most consistent set of runs thus far this winter?

I asked this yesterday but think it got lost and i didnt get a reply. In the USA in place around the great lakes, NYC and Washington DC, do you think there are people on weather forums such as this one biting their nails to see if their wish of deep snow arrives or is their snow more or less nailed on from T144 once it appears on the charts? Is this simply because the lakes are so huge a greater amount of convection occurs and snow is more or less guaranteed?

I know Yamkin, and usually i'm the eternal optimist but i continually get excited over the prospects for things out at T120+ and usually get let down! That blizzard predicted for Friday may still happen but i'm trying not to get too excited! Is the snow coming Tuesday day time then? BBC having none of it i see.

Any idea what time the update comes in? Think that may change a bit somehow!

Honestly couldn't say, and it would be a brave man / woman to predict that 100%! Got excited yesterday when i saw the Country tracks forecast on youtube, should have known better - it's like the UK has a huge fan that blows the snow away as soon as it gets close!

Cause according to the overnight 18z and 0z the threat of snow has downgraded from what i have seen over on the model thread. Time to change but everything seems to have moved SE. Hoping and praying for upgrades but Friday is miles away in forecasting terms.

Hello all. Must admit it is hard not to get a little bit excited about the prospects for this week. I wonder whether one of the BBC forecasts over the next couple of days will claim legendary status on youtube like the Feb 91 forecast has. Though Feb 09 was great for here, Feb 91 was the stuff of dreams. Our area DID grind to a halt. I remember standing in the middle of the A12 just outside Romford during what should have been the rush hour, having no cars on the road simply cause it was too deep with snow. The blizzards were so bad you couldn't see more than 10 meters in front of your face at times. Halcyon days. I hope this week can come close to those glorious few days nearly 19 years ago. Anyway, a quick question to Kold, Steve M or any other expert if i may. When cities around the great lakes or NYC and Washington DC have snow predicted, do you think there are snow loving Americans on forums like this one, biting their fingernails like us lot hoping they get a good dumping? Or is it a case of their snow is more or less guaranteed at, say, T240 because of the lake effect/atlantic etc? I'd love to know whats what in the USA. Cheers.

Well all i can say is wow! These charts are bringing back memories of the cold and snowy 80's for me. Can i just ask TEITS, Nick or Steve do you think we can almost assume this is now nailed at T144 or will there be small adjustments? Seems to my novice eye that the cold will win now but weve been here so many times only for it to go pear shaped at the 11th hour. Something tells me it's different this time now though with all not being in FI AND with the big 3 on board.

That's the bit between "Northerly" and "Southerly", Diane.

Kold, Thanks for that. When do you think we are most likely to get the snow? Just thinking as it would be great to be having a snowball fight with family and friends seeing the new year in on New Years Eve!

Am trying to remain upbeat here. As Kold says, we was never really expecting anything big in terms of snowfall from the initial event. Our best chance for snow in this region would seem to be on Friday/Saturday i think. Try to stay positive as has been stated before, we first must get the cold before the snow can arrive. Good things come to those who wait! Must admit though i would love to be standing in a blizzard seeing the new year in! Does anyone care to wager if this is a possibility?

Kold, whats it like in Aveley, any ideas? Supposed to be playing football in that area tomorrow.

Cheers! Sledging Sunday then!

Any further chances of snow over the weekend for my area? Seems to be mixed reports...

Dave, whats the probability of reloads after the weekend? I know there was some talk of it but haven't heard anything lately past sunday?

Ah, in a pub all Thursday afternoon hopefully watching the snow fall then off all day Friday to play with my son in snow then pub again Friday. Happy times - hopefully!

What the hell has Susan Boyle got to do with the weather? Lol.

I'm not exactly writing winter off but i know the feeling well. Really thought this would be the one and i keep looking for answers as to why the ECM has gone pear shaped. Is it struggling for lack of similar synoptics for December? Who knows. All i know is i try to keep a level head but it's so hard when stunning charts appear run after run. It's my fault but i told everyone were in for snow and now i'm gonna look like an idiot! Typical let down again. Don't know why i expected anything else. Model watching is definately bad for your heath. Off to you tube to watch Ian Mccaskill's Feb 1991 forecast to cheer me up.