Freezing-Point

Ok, but the equations used must be adjusted at intervals to improve accuracy. This can only be based on learning. If there is no learning then how can forcasts improve?

I don't know the answer to this, but am am going to make a logical assumption, so this is more of a question..... Its been said by many on here the the models are only as accurate as the data which is fed in. Fair enough, an obvious statement. But surely irrespective of the accuracy of the input data, the models accuracy is dependant on the quality of the program which is processing the data. Now in the case of our usual UK winter weather - atlantic dominated, there must have been a significant amount of learning put into the programming code to enable more accurate data processing. Hence we have more accurate mid range forcasting for this type of event. But in the case we have in hand at the moment - a rare easterly, the models do not have same quality of processing to provide accuracy over the mid range because there has been so little learning. This is why there has been such disagreement between them and also why we see constant upgrades and downgrades.

Out to T+130 this would cause major disruption on a scale not seen for decades. Nobody will be prepared for this 1979 style blast. Surely this cannot verify? Its certain now that most of the country will see snow within the next week. I am going to get some new tyres fitted tomorrow!

Andy Just looking at your signiture. Yes it may have been a memorable spell for you, but for me in the in the NE its normal to have 3-5 snow events of 3" plus. In this winter so far there has been none! A couple of very wet falls have come close and I believe if feed had been cold enough then these would have been 4-6" falls. For me this winter has only been special because of prolonged cold and no real altlantic presence.

I am at work in wallsend on the banks of the river. I guess its low lying and there is about 1/2" of slush on the roads.

The system running down from Scotland tonight (some calling it a polar low) looks like it could actually deliver the first proper snow of the winter here. I am interested to see how acurate the GFS projection is compared to watching the radar later tonight.

Paul, Last December was 2 inches of very wet snow, I am very suprised it lay on the ground and was gone after 2 hours. Last Monday was just cold enough for snow, the lowest temp was 0.5 in the heavier showers. Problem was the feed was not cold enough, unlike Feb 91 when it was -2 in the showers. I got 2-3 inches here overnight which then slowly melted throught the day before the massive let down of the rain on Monday night.

In my part of the UK (Newcastle) here are the aspects of winter which have been positive and negative Positives: Prolonged cold spells Ice days Frosts - Unbelivable amount this winter. Infact I am now suprised when there isnt a frost. Never seen the lakes near here freeze so many times. Lack of atlantic influence - I can't remember the last double figures And the negatives: No real deep cold feed (yet) Nearly every snow event has been marginal and being on the east coast (8 miles) at 200ft ASL is not a good place to be. Lack of snow. Its becoming embarrasing now. This area is jinxed. Are we ever going to get a NE'ly as the models keep teasing? I think its snow that sticks in people's minds as the factor for a good or bad winter. So far in this area its been below average, leaving my expectations next year still very low.

The notherly flow after Thursday looks very promising for snowfall in the NE. Snow showers for certain with the possibility of troughs developing and creating some longer periods of snow.

Its turning heavier here now.

Paul, I am convinced it would be rain down the east coast anyway with the wind coming in off the sea, unless the PPN was really heavy maybe.

The flakes are that small here its like someone is sprinkling icing sugar.

Light to moderate snow now falling here, intensity has just increased in the last 10 minutes. Temp is -0.5. This is more that what I expected.

Looking at the 22.30 radar there seems to be a shower developing to the North which may clip coastal areas here. Does anyone have the 5 min radar to get a more accurate view?

Dec 4th/5th I was at work in Wallsend and it was 2 inches of very wet snow which melted shortly after. Thats about as good as it gets in those sort of areas from a westerly front. I can imagine it was pretty decent above 500ft. You will have to be at high elevation or 10 miles or more inland, as the uppers are not that high and a strong wind will warm on the N.Sea. This is why last Monday was such a letdown here.

I am yet to see one westerly approching system deliver snow of any significance to low lying areas around Newcastle. Normally the pennines absorb and disperse the PPN and it turns to rain. There seems to be a chance this one won't turn to rain, but still I won't be expecting much as there will be little PPN around by the time it gets here.

A few moderate wet snow showers here earlier, but the temp is a little high at the moment. GFS is showing some a slightly colder feed later this afternoon, but this co-incides with the wind direction changing to more of NW, which will cut the showers off here later on. I would say if there is any chance for lying snow its going to be late afternoon/early evening.

Actually getting some snow would be a nice start!

Yes a covering of powder here as well, maybe reaching 1cm! But its still -5 here also with -6 the overnight low. Could be an ice day i think, then temps will plumit tonight and theres always the chance of another dusting!. -8.4 to beat here this winter. This is the coldest winter since I got my digital outdoor thermo in 1990

Getting a NE'ly is even more rare than an E'ly these days. The models keep teasing us with NE'ly in even the supposed 'reliable time frame', but they just don't seem to come off. The cold blasts keep getting shifted out into the altlantic where they are wasted. We have got to get a NE'ly sooner or later and thats where we are in the prime location and the snow greedy west country won't see a flake.

Newcastle has a snow repellent

The band to the north is moving painfully slowly. I think it will loose intensity if it reaches Newcastle area.

This winter has always been marginal snow at lower levels and always a high ground event in this region. That tells me we are yet to see a feed of real cold air.

Temp now -5 here in N. Newcastle. But I don't want cold I want snow. This area has to get some soon.... It getting embarrasing with my southern mates ringing and saying they have loads of snow. Its nornmally the other way around.

Its now 2.5c here and the rain is getting heavier. Whats going on?