Weather Wonder

More heading our way Anyone know what time the Euro4 is out 8pm? Meto automated radar and forecast starting to play down this tomorrow imby

Snaw is crazy again here well over a foot now, meto need to sort their warnings out.

Crazy amount of snaw falling here right now and loads more to come, reminds me of the 2009 streamer down south 30cm in 18 hours from that and we have two and a half days to go.

Without a doubt this is going to be worst in NE England its the rest of the front that will impact Scotland, a conservative estimate would be an inch in the borders less further north but of more interest is the showers which get going after the front has passed through. The front is incredibly slow moving which ties in with the forecasts here, didn’t expect to see this show up on the radar so early.

Not too sure you'll be able to travel home, thats why i live here now

Just caught it on iplayer, looking like the kind of forecast people will repost on here in a few years time if anyone missed it its at https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09s8khj/weather-for-the-week-ahead-25022018

Yes there is a high chance with such an unstable and cold flow at this time of the year although the nearer you are to the east coast increases the possibilty as do any streamers,

ECM also being progressive with this low pressure system suggests that the GFS bias to blowing up LPs isnt the case

Its certainly becoming a consistant pattern in the models now, however i think GFS12Z is slightly overdoing the intensity of this low and as a result the western extent, a couple more days before we can start to make an educated guess. Lots of weather happening before then which is mostly down to nowcasting, dont forget to look outside and not just at the latest outputs

While were divided whether the north or south are getting the most snow ireland are looking likely to get hit with a blizzard less than 5 months after getting hit by a hurricane

Its about time i did a post on here which takes more than a couple of minutes to type so here we go. Going to start off by quoting @Paul will save me alot of time posting charts and all from an unbiased source So now we have the previous outputs we can start to come to a conclusion here, i will start with the most obvious. There is NO strong easterly flow as was previously modelled.. this is key as it will push showers well inland and allow the colder sub -10 uppers to arrive quicker and remain over the british isles. For the majority of the southeast in particular for heavy settling snow the charts at the moment are just not enough. As above the slack flow off the continent also increases the risk of shortwaves developing hence the varied outputs we are seeing now, the fact the models cant decide on the stregnth of the block is even more concerning. This should go without saying but with March around the corner and the increasing stregnth of the sun we all need low temps to sustain snow cover for more than a day or too,m -5/-10 850s just wont cut it this time of year without a cold high pressure being in situ more so in the south and would be difficult in the north withouth altitude in this setup as currently modeled. With the output downgrading the potential consistantly i think we should all be a bit more realistic, im not saying its not going to snow but based of the input, the best most places can hope for is a four day cold snap with a chance of snow a high posibilty but severe snow away from favoured spots is unlikely IMHO

Just to clarify a couple of things, I have not called a failed easterly I simply stated that IF the watering down and arrival of the deep cold continued it would be a cause for concern. Maybe I should have worded my post better but by easterly I mean deep cold arriving from the east for a period of more than 36-48hrs.

It’s a pattern showing in the outputs a gradual watering down so to speak

Having watched many successful and failed easterlies, more failed than successfull I should add. This is a classic sign of a failed easterly, if this continues the easterly may never arrive or be a blink and you’ll miss it affair. would add I would like to be wrong on this but this is model output discussion so all outcomes showing in the models should be able to be discussed here.

Ironically this run favours the north, awaiting the ensembles but i would hazard a guess that we are going to meet in the middle ground here and we will all see something from this, but more runs are needed this is not a 2010 repeat either way fascinating to follow

Looking like we can write tonight off, it was a highly marginal event lots of respect to those who put there neck on the line for this, and congrats to those on higher ground! One of the few times in my time with netweather their model output in the very short range just didn’t seem right. Luckilly we have multiple chances for snaw next week, Tuesday standing out more than any at least imby.

Heavy snaw here trying to settle

DPs looking good here just up the road, need to start lamp post watching soon http://peebleswx.co.uk/wx/

It’s looking good for the borders but always a tough call when it’s rain to snaw, fingers crossed we all see something.

We all know it’s the south east model thread really ?? Models not looking to great in the short term, chance of a dusting for Scotland and parts of northern England Mon/Tues anything further out is just guesswork.

I think you’ve made your point now, realistically we all want snow in our own back yard and read the charts with that in mind. back to the models there is still plenty of potential in the reliable which ever part of Great Britain is your back yard

No offence meant CMD, Scots are the friendliest people I have met in the uk just don’t feel like we all live up to that here... Great odds JS but I would favour Glasgow out of the two, not long till 18z Edit: shugee forecast is looking bad here the now lots of time for everything to go wrong and end up over highlands or midlands but don’t see this moving.

As much as I would like to see proper snow kinda hope you are right... can’t help but feel this thread isn’t as friendly as others which is a shame especially this time of year.

That’s my biggest concern but taking the intensity of the precipitation into account I think this won’t be an issue depending on the track and timings of course, and with such uncertainties I wouldn’t wager much more myself. However needs watching if the charts verify I will be stuck with the mother in law near Greenlaw ? Edit: readings should be taken from Edinburgh airport on the day so maybe a tiny bit more in favour.

Certainly one to watch and indeed mid day would be too early but a quick google search later the definition of a white Christmas is one flake of snow in a 24 hour period (for London at least) will be waitiing for 18z myself before I take the plunge, MO and BBC Scotland not going past midday 25th the now.