lord stratus

We'll be heading into spring then so here's to a good if not great cold spell just had. Looking forward to next winter!

Quite right, saying the weather should be cold in February is like saying August should be hot. It just doesn't work like that!

Friday, rain turning to snow mainly in north and east, turning back to rain by Saturday evening over all of the UK. Sunday, milder damp and breezy everywhere!

Give it a couple of days of the upcoming mild weather and the forum will start getting excited about those FI charts. I believe we won't have to wait long for another cold spell, I feel height rises from the south will eventually return us to much colder conditions.

This cold spell has proved once and for all that you dont need a Greenland HP to guarantee a wintry outbreak. I've seen shorter cold spells and with less snow with a GH in place!

Rain turning to snow now in Denmead, Hampshire.

Ties in with the BBC forecast 5 minutes ago, they seemed to be talking down milder weather this weekend.

Looking at the latest charts, I doubt it will be marginal as we will be importing colder air along with the snow.

I think it's best to keep an eye on the weather updates during the coming week regarding the snow events. There will be changes in snow distribution and marginality. The latest weather update on the BBC is struggling with the westward extent of the snow tomorrow for example. I wouldn't mind betting there will be a few surprises in store for some next week!

Let's not forget about this Fridays action!

Looks like something's brewing though, at this stage I like to use past experiences with this set up, a few in the 80's brought huge snow depths so there should be some excitement in this forum this evening. This set up has nearly always favoured the south of the UK for the biggest snow falls.

Yep and it's not funny when it happens in front of a customer!

We need 2 more days to firm up on this one. As you say, the carrots being dangled but they are definitely on to something because we are starting to come into the reliable. My prediction has been for a big snow event between 15th and 18th jan so I'm pleased that it looks like its coming right, however my wife will tell me I got completely wrong if it arrives on the 19th! Lol

I expect there will be a correction south. Based on that I would say midlands, south to get heavy snow falls apart from extreme southwest which would get rain.

As you say probably a south correction over the coming days. Some of the forecasters will have to use a degree of past experience I feel with this weekends event. I was in South Wales during the 78 & 82 blizzards and they don't come bigger than that! The forecasts then seemed more accurate in those days but mainly because we relied only on the BBC forecasts and we weren't forever having mood swings, looking at several model outputs a day! In the 70's & 80's we were served up a forecast and accepted it. I have to say that the met office forecast the 82 blizzard a week ahead and in the correct area of the UK. Based on previous channel lows, my experience has been oxfordshire as the snows northern extent.

Your have observed correctly. Lets be fair, the weather forecasters have struggled with the arrival of this cold spell, let alone any snow events, there are parts of the UK that will say "what cold spell". Convective snow from the North Sea and fronts from the east are less of a headache but can only be forecast at short notice some times. This weeks snow event is probably there biggest nightmare as it really is down to the track of the incoming low. This will keep being corrected northwards/southwards during the next couple of days which will dictate where the snow is most likely.

Better angle of atlantic approach against the block. If this were to verify there would be a big snow event in southern england and South Wales. There would also be an increase in snow shower activity in the east brought on by the strengthening south easterly winds.

On 144 atlantic blasts the block right back to Sweden! (Only joking)

If that verifies, blizzard conditions will hit parts of the UK. At this stage I would say the southern half is in the firing line.

Possibly or match past snow falls i.e jan 82 South Wales & the south west of England, 60cm+ of level snow with severe drifting. I wouldn't be concerned of the track at the moment as this will not be firmed up until the latter half of the week and probably be corrected southwards. I remember several channel lows in the 80's and in general the northern extent of the snow was around Oxfordshire. Anyway it does look like we are heading towards a snow event (in the south at the moment) between Thursday and Sunday. My forecast for a big snow event has been between 15th jan to 18th jan so I'll stick my neck out and go for 17th!

Not from the atlantic, the temps are too modified!

I have to agree with Nick on this one. Most people on this forum could digest the latest data and produce a forecast from it in a couple of minutes, in fact they do! If we can do it, the pro's should have no problem. I'm sure they have enough loose change from the cost of their super computers to afford a mobile phone!

The best thing to do is keep an eye on the bbc forecast as well as relying on this forum. Remember the bbc forecast will help keep your feet firmly on the ground. That ukmo chart would be a huge snow event if it were to verify from approximately Oxford south!

If its likely to come off there will be advanced warnings by the end of Tuesday. I remember the 1982 blizzard in South Wales, we were warned a week in advance of that one. That's when forecasts seemed more accurate! Looking at the various charts, it does seem to be an option so the forecasters will be watching closely.

There will be changes to severe weather warnings this week and I expect at short notice at times. This is the nature of forecasting snow. Hopefully the ukmo charts will varify as the 15th to 18th January has been my forecast for a big snow event for the past two weeks. I'll stick my neck out and go for Thursday 17th for the action to start! Just want a slight shift s/e of atlantic!