lord stratus

Hope not, that's back to average/mild temps and rain.

BBC tv forecasts very bullish this morning about very little snow prospects for western and southern Britain this week. Doesn't entirely tie in with the current output.

There is still a good chance for that part of the country, I think Monday will be a bit of a lottery for all the UK. This cold weather saga has proved that these super computers the met office boast are not all they are cracked up to be. They were boasting that they could forecast severe cold weather a month in advance. They are having trouble forecasting Monday!!!! Lol

Don't forget your earlier advice to everyone: Could we discuss Mondays potential snowfall in our respective regional discussion threads. I say this because now the event is very close and our locations will dictate our opinions of the model runs. We have enough to discuss in this thread as it is!!

Out of this cold spell? We are not even in one yet! I'm losing count of how many days that members of this forum have commented on mouth watering charts 5 days out that have still not materialised! Looking at this afternoons charts I can say they are upgrades regarding cold weather, I hope there is agreement from the ECM tonight and in a couple of days we get the easterly for real rather than living it in a virtual reality world like my son does on his Xbox!

I agree you are only stating what's in front of you and it seems like eternity waiting for a cold spell that's being downgraded before its even started, however it maybe an idea to look at this evenings models to see how this is going. How many times have we heard that being said? Lol

It could turn out to be a non event. The trouble is that a lot of members are so desperate for a cold and snowy spell that they are ramping up snow events from the north west! These events are always marginal! I expect to see a few surprises this week though!

Different set up though. However this may change and the set up may improve as we get closer to the event.

Basically the precipitation is not coming from a great direction so unfortunately there will be warmer uppers in the mix, meaning rain for some. This is not as straight forward as say easterlies bringing in convective showers or a channel low. There are complications with a channel low however if it travels too far north it would mean warmer uppers to the south of the low would mix in with the cold uppers. I think the snow/rain event will have to be a wait and see event.

Not as cold as most thought it would be next week. Met office actually say it will be on the cold side.

Scandinavia would be perfect to pull in the easterlies.

Looking at the most recent charts I would suggest that people don't get too excited about Mondays snow event. I would expect most parts to have rain rather than snow apart from eastern and the far southeast of England and the midlands. This sort of set up rarely delivers as temperature tend to rise behind snow/sleet/rain band.

As you say, marginal. Remember, weather systems coming from the north west doesn't guarantee snow unless the cold is well and truly entrenched. Personally I would prefer an approach from the southwest, but that could come later in the week.

Yes it's looking like a very good cold spell coming up. Gfs bolstering the likely outcome that the Euros have been consistently showing. Plenty of snow chances. The grim reaper will appear on here when he see's any negatives to comment on:)

This is a far south & south east event. South correction to continue on future runs.

Unreliable? That'll be t24 then. Lol

Nick, the weather doesn't work that way

Quite right. I think we are all guilty of micro managing upcoming weather events, especially cold weather. I believe the gfs will back away from zonal somewhat and settle into a middle ground. I think we should have one eye on bbc latest forecasts also as this will help pick up on a particular trend rather than us all hanging on every single output

Good summing up of the models without the emotions of some of the other members earlier posts. I suppose one of the problems is that some of the previous runs from the big 3 have been so good that a downgrade had to come. Lets face it if there were upgrades this country would have had serious problems if they verified! To add further confusion itv's day break weather presenter at 8.30 mentioned the newspaper headlines of the big freeze. She then went on to add that it would become very cold with snow risks over the weekend and she reiterated that the cold spell would last for at least 2 weeks.

What's the betting, the GFS will show raging easterlies in FI on the 12z or 18z.

Trust me. That would not be a snowy outlook, apart from higher ground. I expect it will look different later today though.

To be honest the best thing to do now is watch to bbc forecasts in the coming days. Most people on this forum always wait for their confirmation of cold weather, weather warnings etc so I believe this is the way to know the longevity of the cold snap without wasting too much of your life on line

Not really. If either varify it will be straight back to mild, wet & windy.

Like I said the other day, the best the models can do is 2/3 days and even then they are not that accurate. We are a billion miles from predicting the weather with these so called super computers. There is no way these computers can be programmed to cope with the chaotic nature of the weather. We still keep hanging on each run though!

Lets pray gfs is correct. Heating bills will be lower:)