lord stratus

No surprises with today's upgrades, the models are trying to get a handle on how the cold weather will develop. As I mentioned yesterday the cold will arrive 15th to 18th Jan, possibly earlier. Best chance of snow 18th jan onwards. I expect this cold spell to be notable.

Still the odd post suggesting winter is over. I'm amazed that some of these posts are coming from the more knowledgeable members. Winter will kick in this month, the models will show this about 5/7 days out so you'll have to wait a little longer, as the cold weather will set in between the 15th and 18th of January.

As nick predicted yesterday, the horror show continues today with the GFS. ECM looks better if you live in the cairngorms! Cold fans shouldn't be too concerned just yet as it's better to use up as much of this mild rubbish as we can before the winter months. Those saying that the winter is already over should look at the archives for autumn 1978!

Not hope casting. Model watching and weather predicting requires various inputs, not just scientific ones. You only require slight changes in the current set up to change the mood for cold fans! I like to look at the set ups in winters past along with the current science that we have on offer to make any predictions. Both methods are flawed of course, this why forecasts are so difficult. My current view is a dull mildish November progressing to a cold/very cold December. For cold fans it's surely best to use up any mild weather in November! The current set up will not last beyond November.

Although this current set up is frustrating for cold fans, there is plenty of potential in the charts. The cogs are in the wrong place at the moment, but this is subject to change. The sluggish Atlantic and solid blocking on offer bodes well for a very cold winter. Something to remember is that severe winter spells appear with only a week or two's notice. The previous cold winters had mild autumns and no one forecast last years freezing December on November 9th 2010. Back to the charts, various options are being played with at the moment with no real confidence. By the weekend a shift in the pattern should take place offering far more interest. End of November likely start of winter proper!