lord stratus

If I had a pound for every time someone said we'll Have to wait a couple of days to know for sure!

you can't say the gfs has embarrassed itself unless it either climbs on board with the ECM and ultimately verifies which means it would have originally made the wrong call or it sticks to its guns and it doesn't verify. Then you could class it as embarrassing but I doubt if it cares.lol

Your welcome

Or it will stick to its guns because it may be right!

Or it will be like the courier service my company uses and everything gets delayed. Lol

No, it'll be south correction.

06z out soon. Keep an eye on the period 15th to 18th jan for a snow event

You make me laugh. When the gfs shows great charts its the leader of the pack. It's the poorest of the big three today though! Lets hope the charts firm up on this most micro managed cold spell in history, to avoid further toy throwing & tantrums!

ECM is fine though there must be a firming up by the big 3 in the next 24 hours to start thinking that a good/great cold spell is on. I wouldn't get too excited by that northerly showing on the ECM, they never deliver! My view hasn't changed, as per my previous posts, 15th to 18th jan could be special

I think Ian is about to have a Brazilian. Lol

Unfortunately it's because we are a billion miles away from being able to forecast the weather more than 2 to 3 days ahead. Just watch the models change daily, sometimes beyond compare to the previous days output to see that they just can't keep up with the ever changing Synoptics.

It has always been the case. most winters in the 70's for example were snowless and mainly westerly driven. It wasn't until 1978 that the cycle changed to colder winters. I expect you will get a different answer from other members on here but really I believe it's all down to the age of the member. For example I was born in the early 60's so I've seen a right mixed bag of winters whereas someone born in the early to mid 70's would probably have great memories of the very cold winters of the late 70's, early 80's and say we don't get winters like that anymore and the less experienced members will even mention the "even larger teapot" causing less easterlies, which of course is a big myth!

I'm happy with the latest outputs though I never take them seriously. My forecast weeks back of snow & cold 15th to 18th jan looks rock solid. And as for the socks, I have no problems as my wife matches them for me

Well I know what you mean but there doesn't seem to be a single post from Ian B that isn't looking for mild.

Well said!

Yet again the lesser experienced members taking each output as gospel. Crazy days ahead!

Most cold weather fans are looking at trends and should be pleased with what the current outputs are showing. A bit pointless looking for a breakdown before the cold weather has even set in!

And this is why you shouldn't take each run as gospel. Lets hope members keep toys in pram when the next poor model is shown.

As you say by Wednesday things firming up on the cold spell. BBC forecast will be announcing arrival of much colder weather too for the week after next 15th to 18th jan.

The problem is that each run is being taken as gospel. When it looks to be going pear shaped the wind up merchants jump on it (no names mentioned) if the cap fits as they say! Anyway 15th to 18th jan for the good stuff.

Models are firming up on the cold spell of weather coming, eventually cold enough for snow, though it will be 15th to 18th jan onwards for the real deal.

SnowTornado slating my post just because I gave my view on the upcoming cold spell. Just because it didn't happen in December doesn't mean anything with the weather going forward. My prediction of 15th to 18th jan have been posted previously and I choose to stick with this based on the model trending favourably. I use other methods of course, being in my 50's adds experience as well, comparisons can be made to previous weather events so a more balanced view can be given.

Models are coming into agreement with the colder weather. As I previously mentioned 15th to 18th jan for the really interesting stuff. Snow events to arrive around those dates. Still various solutions will be thrown up in the models over the coming days but this is going only one way....

Don't worry Ian, ECM will eventually fall in line with gfs. The cold is coming......

I've just seen Brian Gaze's comments regarding the up coming cold spell. Worded very carefully because even if we get the coldest easterly ever recorded, he will be able to argue that the UK missed the coldest temps because it was colder in Scandinavia, Poland etc. I expect his views to change by 15th January.