pyrotech

We are not just back in the game we are in dreamland. Fantastic warnings on met office

To be honest nothing will be resolved tonight, i am off to bed and crossing my fingers that Meto revert back sometime tomorrow. Plenty to play for. However i can not imagine if accross the border they get the snow again. Those in Mid Wales are still looking good, lets hope for upgrades now so us in the South and South West also get some Snow

yes that 72, even between that and 84, the 84 had a further East based flow over Wales , a slack area of air over france being source, now source is completely Atlantic based and that slight modification in temperature will be critical, (dew points) for us, if that verifies or continues. However we both know that it will be different but in which direction.

At this time it looks like the NAE model was the form horse. Obviously plenty of time for an upgrade but i think to avoid any further disapointment we need to take in Ians comments, take note of latest BBC (main forecast) which Shows rain west of Bristol and South Of Brecon Beacons. The positive to take is that the models will not get this battle correct even in last few hours, and some margin of error will prevail, however that margin of error could be either way. Has the chief forecaster decided to take a medium between NAE and Mogreps or has mogreps jumped ship in its last run. Lots of uncertainty and even GFS has some credability at this timeframe so all still to play for but my feet are firmly back on the ground, for now.

Okay just watched on BBC NEWS Channel Starts as snow apart from in Far West, remains as snow North of Merthyr / Brecon and East of Cardiff. Cardiff in the area between snow or Sleet, can obviously move further East or back West. Yes forecast has changed, more inline with NAE, but if you look at fax charts it looks like the low deepens saturday then bringing more Easterly flow. I really think this can upgrade or downgrade alot yet But i am trying to give true and accurate information rather than just what we want to hear.

Take a look at the updated fax charts, gone is the South easterly, in comes Southerly. Jackone this has moved slightly against us and no one more gutted than me, but i have to say what it says.

GFS is fine, P E R F E C T, but NAE is not, local forecast was good, but recorded, BBC main forecast was much more in line with NAE, plenty of time for changes but interesting to see what Ian F has to say, perhaps NAE was right, i do hope not. Im on BBC News channel now waiting to see on there.

BBC main forecast was more in line with NAE, Snow moving in on Thursday then rain over most of Wales with the Snow over the border.

You might be right but thats not what it says look at bottom of both charts. Except i posted same chart twice And checking back you were very right !!!

The NAE seems wrong The 12z 48hr 18z 42hr are completely identical, too much in my opinion, look at very small features. There should be some differences at that time scale. Its almost like the exact same starting conditions were used. To exact for my liking. I have never seen such consistancy between two runs at that timeframe.

Quote from Ian Fergusson Having just read a fascinating multi-page UKMO analysis for Fri-Sat.... we're no clearer on outcome. In summary: frontal ppn extension NE on Fri v v uncertain albeit expected almost entirely as snow accompanied by Sig windchill; extended 4km models prog 10-20cm snow Dartmoor etc with falls up NE to Mendips but detail untrusted at this range. Of greater significance perhaps is more active frontal push later Sat, more meridionally orientated as per EC, with leading edge snow at least but again easterly extent into Sun uncertain. A truly fascinating and high stakes forecast challenge all round..

Really heavy snow in Cardiff (ELY ST FAGANS) Huge flakes and sticking Back end of showers was real snow, settled only on cars and slush on pavements but positive However its going to be an icerink out there in morning

Well Tony with that statement perhaps, for the first time ever that i have known, you should do a midweek update on your discussion for the week ahead. Perhaps today is a bit early but it would be good tomorrow evening to read an anylized update from you, on the possible ( may i say fairly likely) snow on Friday. Thats if your not too busy.

Het folks, this is the Welsh Forum, Lets keep it positive as our neighbours over in Southeast pop in here and we do not want them to see all this pesimism in Wales. Friday has about 50% chance of verifying thats not bad. Friday has about 70% chance of verifying as a snow to rain event, That means friday has a 30% chance of not happening at all I would take those odds any day If models stay on course expect warnings by Meto by Wednesday. Mean while take a look back at December, then look at chances we are getting now, huge opportunities and we only need a bit of luck once. The glass is half full !!!!

image captured few mins ago of merthyr at 20:40 snowing rather nicely there at that time More images from cams on the facebook page http://www.facebook.com/settings/?tab=applications#!/pages/FLOODWARN-UK-flooding-and-severe-weather-site/283997950792

one additional bit of good news is the graphics on bbc forecasts, based on Met office prediction so Mogreps must be showing better than NAE, taking account of the occluded front. Very positive but also a very close call. Watch for updates is only advice

Yes news 24 forecast is a mega upgrade for us in Wales, just had a look at last nights , Was rain from the Brecon Beacons Southwards. This goes along with the forecast that the fronts become occluded before reaching us, sending warm sector further South, far enough South to give many Northern parts of Southwest England snow also. Obviously its still a forecast but we are getting into more reliable timeframe, plus an upgrade is an upgrade

Looking in midlqnds forum lots of snow reports near welsh border shewsbury dudley etc very positive start o the day. BRECON BEACONS?

I agree, except on that day fronts are edging in from the North and west into the cold pool. I am not worried about percipitation after that, i am fine if the east gets continuous showers and streamers, the main point is we get cold further west so when we have an Atlantic incursion, From West or from Undercutting low South attack, it sets us all up for better options.

Jackone You were right last night, for tomorrow the evaporative cooling (lack of) seems to have made a difference. Not put us out of it, but less percipitation, longer to turn to snow and perhaps only sticking at higher elevations. Good call by you

If you check previous charts for same time, you will notice 528DAM was over Welsh English border, it now covers wales. Obviously for a IMBY perspective its very good news, but for others here it is also good, as the further west the cold air gets, the more likely it will be snow further East also, plus if Wednesdays possible snow was to be marginal , the more cold we have in place the better we are for any Atlantic attack.

Some more good news Have a look at 12z monday surface pressure charts, the 528 dam is now completely around Wales, The fronts are over us too. The previous charts for same time show them back towards Newport and along the Wales / England border. So that changes percipitation likelyhood of being snow.

to be honest jackone i am not sure it will be sorted completely for Monday on Sunday night, its very marginal for us throughout, a slight difference and we get what SouthEast England are forecast to get. Positive tonight is UKMO which is the most reliable model of them all, Then fact that a much lesser model (GEM) sees it in a similar way (better?) alot to hang on to. It would be nice to have ECM follow UKMO to calm the nerves, even if only for a few hours Well we should be used to the rollercoaster ride, but these dips still make me gasp (in horror) but its exillerating as you get to the top.

Well we have some hope still, UKMO is our banker, GEM i do not hold much hope for but its another option away from dismal GFS. I think for us in Wales the ECM will be rather important tonight, if its anything between UKMO and GEM then game on, if not hope does diminish a little more, although these scenarios do often change at very last minute. Will be a very intense few days. whats worse is you go on main model forum and see upgrade on every post, to look at the charts and see for us its been dongrade all day. Hmmm

Yes every model run today has been a downgrade for us in the West, i do not begrudge our Neighbours in the East getting the snow but its annoying reading upgrade and then looking at the models and seeing downgrade for a large portion of the West UK. The UKMO does offer some hope, but right now the models show a non event for Wales and South West England, compared to yesterday. I do not see this downgrading further East, Its looking very good if not locked on for you to see atleast some lying snow and maybe alot. From a very selfish point of view i would like this to be a country wide event, but only UKMO shows much hope of this, unless ECM comes inline tonight, and thats not at expense of the great conditions most on here will have.