pyrotech

I had one of these After setting up it worked fine for two years, was extremely useful especially for temp and dew points Alarms too for temperatures which is good. Over all i was impressed. After two years the transmitting sensor stopped working, They are available for £40 but im trying to source cheaper ones. Im a bit lost without it, but hope to get it working soon. Two years trouble free thou remember to loop wires down so water can not run into the components, i also used a waterproof oil to help ensure that water could not enter it, for two years that worked, not sure if water related or if the component just came to end of life. I will update on how i get on with replacement part, and if it solved it.

I think the forecast my Chono is read wrong on here, looking at the models and what he said would happen did happen, Correct me if i am wrong but when he talked about the PV i am sure he was talking about blocking that would produce cold to engulf Europe, potentially effecting us. Look at the models and the snow charts for Europe and that has happened. It just missed us out. Obviously most of us do not care what Europe gets but care about us and our back yard. I think his forecasts were very close, perhaps much more accurate than models were at that range. Just to give an idea to how close it came to be that his forecast would have effected us too, can i remind you what the models ECM Et Al showed a week ago. It pretty much happened but we were a little too far West and shortwaves seemed to first spoil this pattern.

You know what will happen Steve, you will come back in five days, find the forum full 2000 users and find the models all changed day after you took your break ( think that would suit you mind) Anyway just had a look at the SIGWX charts to see if any glimmer of anything not showing on the models. Interesting is the moderate icing at 2000 ft & 1700 ft and turbulence. I would see this area being 534dam or lower, I would expect there to be some convection within this area. Looking then at the models i see very little showers or light percipitation before the warm air arrives. Reading both together and taking into account Frontcyclis i still think the models may have under played showers moving in to the West. These with low surface temperature (2m) and 534dam would be of snow in my opinion. Perhaps i missed something when looking at this?

Both Ecm and Gfs show height growing over greenland. Gfs goes further still by watching it ridge down into the Atlantic to our west. The trend is for the greenie high to form need to see more runs before saying it will ridge into atlantic. Some positive signs for cold to have potential. Going to use that word potential as its all in fi and not to raise hopes but to give something to watch on models.

Well this is the first time in days that snow is shown in Wales on Thursday (GFS 12z). So it looks marginal looking at the 850mb and obviously temporrary, but those looking for a little snow and cold can take this as a upgrade. This moves North effecting many areas, but perhaps less Snow on this run for Scotland. Every run seems to be a slight upgrade to me for this weekend, albeit a pointless one to a large extent as it will soon wash away. However an hour or two of snow would definitely be welcomed by me. I do realise that GFS can back track from this to an all rain event, but positive that it shows some snow. Further upgrade for longer spells or more areas are not out of the question.

Okay to clear up exactly what meto have said i have it below, you can then monitor it as the days pass for changes. As bluearmy said its updated to what ever ECM and what ever other models they decide to give credability too for a particular run. With the longer term outlook i find they only make big changes every few days, i would suggest if Ecm showed a cold outlook on 12z they would still leave it pretty much as it is as that is what the latest trend from it has shown ( possibly adjusting the wording on confidence only) Then if models begin a new trend they will look at changing the forecast with more depth. The 5 day is more prone to daily changes as its more reliable on model runs, however at that timescale any changes are normally much smaller anyway. UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2012 to Monday 24 Dec 2012: Unsettled conditions should have spread to affect most the UK into the first weekend, with temperatures widely recovering to near-normal for the time of year. The rain may be preceded by a period of snow, mainly across higher ground of Scotland with the colder conditions starting the period here. Otherwise, occasionally heavy rain will follow into southwest England before moving northeast across the country, leaving clearer, windier and showery conditions, particularly affecting the west, with a risk of gales in places. Conditions should then stay unsettled through the remainder of the period, with rainbands crossing the UK, turning clearer but showery in between. Temperatures will be close to the seasonal average, perhaps even mild at times in the south, but there may still be overnight frost in clearer spells. UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2012 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2013: There is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecast, but there are indications of more unsettled weather during this period. Temperatures will generally be a little below average for the time of year, although they may recover to nearer normal by the New Year. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts and distribution shows a high degree of uncertainty. On balance, it seems most likely that many areas will receive average amounts of rain. Issued at: 1600 on Mon 10 Dec 2012

I agree, but bare in mind statistcally ECM is more reliable at days 2 - 5 but then later in fi they are much closer in accuracy where both fall off rather dramatically and ECM becomes only very marginally better than GFS if at all. Apparently Meto run with ECM for medium range - 10 day but im not sure why they have such faith, as around the end of Fi both are in huge margins of error. I think we need to use intuition and just look for triggers for patern changes in blocking in the models when looking in Fi, i normally say trends but that does not seem to work in these situations, unless you call the trend as showing potential cold.

I still find watching the models thru this period interesting take ECM for instance, its 00 runs since friday night have consistantly moved the low Southwards. So much so that in that time frame the winds have moved at least 45 deg from SW to SE on the south coast of uk by 00 FRiday this week, same movement again in same timeframe ie 3 days and we have an Easterly ( albeit not as potently cold as it could have been. So things hang onto more of a knife edge than we give credit to. Then we have most major models showing a sometimes wet and certainly less cold outlook to run up to Christmas. ECM and GFS both are loaded with potential in fi, but the models just do not show it coming to fruitition. The Ensembles are also not really reflecting a cold run up in fi either. However a weeks ago the Easterly and potential was equally shown by all models and even in the Meto outlook they hinted towards cold, but whilst still in fi it changed dramatically over less than 24 hours by all. Nothing really has changed, the models still show a very complicated outcome for fi and i just do not understand why we believe fi when it shows less cold more than when it shows cold. ECM and GFS only have 50% accuracy in fi. We are looking for triggers to cause changes in the models and to me its loaded with potential and although the models do not show a 50 / 50 scenario, i believe it is equally balanced to go colder around 23rd as it is to remain zonal.

I think Ian would be best to ask how they are confident in that timeframe and for it to be cyclonic. I would expect it is from the series of runs by EC showing a trend, but with the adjustment in the trend maybe it will change, but that speculative from me. It could even be that one senior forecaster sees a trend forming in the big picture, but another one will see the opposite. Could also be that they have something a little extra in the data that we do not, certainly not the time now to see if its right or wrong, we can discuss that on xmas day and after. I must say i am surprised to see confidence high in that timeframe, would of expected moderate at best with current models evolving perhaps to less zonal. Perhaps todays senior forecaster is a big netweather user, and loves watching us throw our toys out of the pram ..... or wants xmas to be a nice surprise Sorry since posting have seen Ians reply posted above via someone, but i think the above does reflect it somewhat

Reactive as in they react to what models predict - yes Proactive in reading different models and predicting an out come in the future, using various data and choosing most likely outcome. Proactive by issuing timely, accurate and informative warnings, at different stages before a situation arrives. Reactive would be telling us what the weather is now and yesterday, for issuing warnings that are out of date , as in for yesterday. I would expect such a regular user as yourself to see just how volatile the models are, its okay for us to jump on a model run and talk about its outcome, something else to give that outcome to public, emergency services and industrial sectors, where a inaccurate forecast can be hugely costly. The models later this coming week are very volatile, slight changes over 5 days could see quite dramatic changes in the outcome, lets not even go beyond that. A forecaster can not rely on a single or couple of runs, they would have to look at the big picture which means the last run trend, accross model too. I hope the new trend continues and that meto proactively adjust their forecast to reflect it. This is probably the most volatile and exciting model runs that we have seen for 12 months.

I did not say for another year, i looked at strat thread, i said till 2013 which is 23 days away not 12 months Just to show im not a pessimist not having a dig

I do think saying they are reactive rather than proactive is abit unfair, but i think if we looked in an unbiased way the models have shown the outlook, remembering they give more credability to EC than GFS in fi, that we would if pushed have to give a similar outlook. Its what is shown as most likely on the previous runs by EC. However a few runs by the EC and others in Fi trending cold, also with a different senior forecaster on the day (maybe) that a different outlook may be given. They can not have a biased in any weather to make what is often at best a far from accurate medium range forecast. Its what the forecaster would have seen in the EC previous runs and its what its hinted to us too, however i am hopeful that changes are a foot and that will reflect later in the week on their forecasts, if not the sledge will need to be put back up in the actic until 2013, i don't want to go back to the actic !!!

I think the meto outlook is a very frank and honest one, it also highlights why watching the model runs unfold this week will be as exciting as last week. They do have more data available than us, but how much use it is we can only guess. We can all see the possabilities that could occur, even if temporary towards the end of next week, so can they. We would probably all agree that it looks wet looking at the models over last few days, but also its not going to take alot to suddenly turn it into a transient snow to rain event. The EC is what they use alot if looking ahead so their forecasts in fi will change with its runs so nothing to worry about there and i expect it to change as EC flips like a fish out of water. Why do i think it will flip about, because this is a very volatile situation and can go from mobile to static very easily in fi. Static could mean exactly as shown in their medium range, or static as in a cold scenario, depending eactly where things are when things get blocked. This week is shown to get colder to start, but mainly dry, all models agree. Then a breakdown, again all models agree, but agreement on the models only means most likely scenario, and in fi which is around thursday, just small corrections could give very different outcome for what you get, for a time atleast, in your back yard. Im off to the strat thread now as i see this a one main driver and although it does not guarantee blocks forming in the right place or cold for the UK it does give opportunities, which again can help the models change what they show deep in fi now in a few days time. I have a gut feeling that this will be more of a battle and give transient snow event and not a straight run to rain. But i will be honest, its not scientific, from something i see in the charts, it just experience in these breakdowns, they have often changed very late on in both directions in the past. Ec is the stronger model in the 5 day period, but both EC and GFS tail off dramatically in accuracy after day 5 and are pretty much on a par in deep fi (around 50%)

There seems to be a few on here trying to provoke a reaction. New members this is an upgrade. Why? Because we look for trends and more models are showing a cold trend. Snowfall is something to worry or look for 24 hours out. Cold surface and 850mb temps are all we worry about right now. Look for cross model agreement for cold or mild. Its cold trend now. In Fi the best guide is listening to those who know about mountain torque nao ao and pv.. 500 charts are good too for fi. Its very good trend and some surprise last minute snow often follows if you get cold like this over the Uk. I would like to see Ec follow with something resembling yesterday but in all honesty everything has gone pretty much right today. I would be more worried if other models showed totally different today but no they show a similar trend. Sorry did this on phone as in work.

Do not worry about the 18Z GFS, its 12z and 18z have been consistant since late last week in going on two different tangents, it would be amazing to see the 18Z switch to something like the ECM but i feel for now it will keep singing its same tune. Its the ECM tomorrow that will be important and 12z GFS run tomorrow in my opinion. I hope i am wrong but i think the GFS will break a few hearts tonight in Fi but only because its 12z and 18z runs have been so different and consistant.

Its the answer i believe that everyone wants to know? I like a bit of fun on the forums as it helps instead of prozac.

Obviously met office will have to be more cautious than us on here, but they need to way up cautious v prudent by this weekend if that 12Z ECM was to verify even with a downgrade of sorts. Models have been showing this trend for a while and many seasoned posters have been saying patience. Its one mega run but on other side the models and essembles have showed variations of similarity in fi for a while. Even yesterday on my posts i started quoting a very important name as i think its the most likely way forward for the models. Daxy Monssaw possibly the most unusual name and rare in the UK but likely to be used 2012.

Looking at the essembles Germany (Berlin) is looking very cold throughout the run and for most of the run the extreme cold is agreed by all members. Those cold in Europe have definitely got it.

Talking about 18z and pub run this is the 18z on friday for midnight tonight Then this is from tonights 18z GFS for midnight tonight So its not quite the pub run on this 18z set Seems fairly good for 5 days out Just to put the GFS 18z in perspective

Just seen complete 18z GFS and its a perfect example of why you compare run to run not different times. Difference in fi is High Scandi moves Slightly further North East but stronger, and Low iceland / Greenland much deeper. But this run is very similar to last nights 18z and 12 z yesterday and today very similar. Looking at 16th for this. GFS is consistant for each run time, but each different run is completely different. Choose your run time, I suggest to see which run most resembles ECM . Lots of uncertainty over a just a few days but consistancy in runs if compared time v time

Well if someone knew the magic cure for the models they would reprogram them, its Numerical, but surely you realise how complicated this science is. The models have probably found something close to the outcome, but which chart off which run do you want to take. You can take all the drivers you want and still add some less signifigant part of the puzzle and get different actual outcome. Most changes by the models have still shown very cold temperatures over Europe, both 850s and surface, so models have seen the drivers and the cold is there and rather strongly, take a look back at Europe 10 days ago and compare. We are a very small Island ( call it in my back yard , bigger scale) just because we do not get cold and mega snow does not mean the drivers did not work out, it means we just missed out, were unlucky or perhaps for some lucky. You seem to forget the big warm bath that surrounds us, Forecasting involves Meteorology, Oceanography and climatology for uk, you can remove Oceanography to a large extent for a large Landmass like mainland Europe.

You definitely woke up with the glass half empty this morning. Plenty of signals for a cold outlook even beyond where the models go, but okay the real potential on surface pressure and 850s stays in Fi. Lets not even talk about percipitation charts further than 24 -36 hrs out when looking for snow. There is nothing unusual about that, the models run and comeout with different outcomes and every year the toys are thrown out of the pram, then 48 hours later everyone is watching the midnight lamppost. What is more important is the blocking and symptoms driving the Northern hemisphere right now and likely too for next 8 weeks. Trends are important in the models, the main trend is longterm cooler than average. We are still waiting for the lady to sing, she is on the stage and it seems a long pause, but when she starts her vocals you will sit up and listen. The cold air has arrived in UK, okay marginally not cold enough in South for Snow, but further North its changed dramatically, that from very mild weather just 10 days ago that caused severe flooding. The models showed the trend to cold and for Europe it shows deep cold trend right thru fi., its on our door step and just a short jump from our shores. Honestly these are the best drivers i have seen for many years for a possable very interesting winter, does that mean we will get a memorable winter, NO, it means the chances have increased thou. I am not going to put up charts for showing what the models are showing in Fi as they really are not worth the time beyond 144 hrs as too much inconsistancy with if and whats. Does it not tell us something when one run shows cold and one much less cold? Yes it says two important things 1. follow same model same time daily for comparrison, 2. The best computers in the world can not see an exact way forwards beyond 144hrs. Can i add that often this kind of scenario can lead to the biggest surprise, with battle scenario between the warm moist air and Cold dryer air Daxy Monssaw

To be honest you would be better comparing the same run time than two different runs, one is the 00z and one is the 12z they will always be different and sometimes hugely. compare runs from same time and you will notice either subtle differences showing the adjustment trend or a complete flopping which means either a new trend found or huge uncertainty. In all honesty checking each run against each other in fi is only going to boil your heads. Keep it simple run to run and the prozac may not be requited.

I think people need to read GP and Chino posts more carefully. They are reporting that things are in place to effect PV and NAO, AO but in fairness they have said this gives a great opportunity for us to get a good cold spell. That means in the Northern Hemisphere somewhere will get a opportunity, Where depends on alot of other factors including position of HP, We could end up in a fantastic pool of sustained cold air, or just miss out . GFS 18Z shows a very feasable possability, Europe mainland in a very deep freezer and uk in a milder plume. Unfortunately that is the way long range / medium range forecasting goes. The signals are there and pinpointing where any real cold will be from them signals shown in model runs like the 500 will only guide to trends. However on a more positive note, there is very little evidence from the anomally charts of anything changing, so we will see lots of oppurtuniies and each time we have a chance to see the right set up with snow. I also like to see Europe cool down as we really need the cold from there to give a good sustained cold spell here. Thats not to say GFS 18z in Fi is correct, but its certainly feasable and if it was to end up close to the mark its still a reasonable chart for this time in winter. It would give very cold surface temps to the mainland, which down the line could assist us. Being realistic its good to remember, we are more likely to see snow New years day than xmas day, and more likely to see snow in Easter than New years day. So what we are seeing constantly in the models is a very cold trend, we often see in my back yard posts about snow on here, well in my back yard is basically the UK in Fi. I know this is obvious to seasoned members, just some new members may follow each model run and we know how that can really boil your head. Can i just plug a piece that John Homes wrote some time ago about model runs, about comparing same time runs, not 12z to 18z etc. Its very good advice

What i find of most signifigance is before that on the NAE Tue 04.12 18 GMT timescale, look at last 3 runs and you get three upgrades for snow over West Wales and North Devon, now this matters for all parts of the UK as it shows that cooler air is being upgraded on each run by the NAE. So on what i believe is one of the most reliable short term models we are getting constant upgrades with more and more rain being forecast as snow. The next run is vitally important as the 6z that you show above has widespread snow, we need to see a further upgrade in that and its game on. With actual percipitation in the models beyond 36 hrs for snow i give very little notice on the models, all i look for really beyond that is the cold as the slight changes on the run up changes and has huge differences in regards to who actually gets anything.