pyrotech

K1 Buoy at 10am 987 mb and falling fast

Buoy reports for 8am today K2 Buoy Waves 3.5 m pressure 996mb pressure tendency - falling rapidly by about 5mb an hour for last few hours K1 buoy wave ht 2.9m pressure 991mb falling rapidly by 3.7mb Source for live buoy reports http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/buoys.htm

Except meto the models seem to be deepening this low coming in late Thursday and stalling over West UK Be interesting to firstly monitor the approach using buoy reports to how deep this gets in relation to forecast models. This could be quite nast gales with trees in full leaf and sodden ground. As the storm moves in then rainfall totals will be the issue. Areas most at risk are already sodden. Monitoring the rainfall and live reports would be interesting. Tomorrow i will do comparrisons of buoy reports to forecast pressure charts to see if Meto have under cooked this or not. Before then im on night shift so anyone else able to do that, and post here would be appreciated. Floodwarn.co.uk has live buoy reports, possibly best Buoy to monitor will be K2 in the south west approaches. Anyone in Wales and southwest can give actual weather updates as the rain moves in.

Try http://www.facebook....te/283997950792 Floodwarn is a welsh site but does forecasts and perhaps a sign of summer is looking likely, the above is their facebook page which has forecasts and updates. The forecasts cover reliable timeframe then goes into fi with a forecast of what looks most likely. Bonus is its made in Wales. The main site is floodwarn.co.uk

Yes an hour after i posted that they put advisories up That low is deep, last few runs by NAE has slightly deepened it, GFS has it as above and only Meto have it less deep by about 6mb, Maybe the winds will be a bigger issue. Makes model watching fun. I have the buoys out at sea on floodwarn website if anyone wants to monitor the depth against forecast models as it approaches. As i am in work i am hoping someone posts results as i can check netweather but not my own site in work. Is someone going to set up a thread for this low, so the model discussion is not interupted. Its signifigant due to possible winds and likely flooding in West.

Looking at all the models for the next few days i would have expected an early warning from Meto for Wales. Not exceptionally high totals but enough considering the high water table there. Is there something in the models that account for them not issuing an early (yellow) advisory. Even the surface pressure charts show signs of something in region of 30 - 40mm in those areas that least need it. Localised at that amount but thats all it takes. Thoughts? Regarding the high that has been in Fi on GFS this also had backing of ECM briefly. Im not sure if the models have next week sorted until the exact track and timing of this low is sorted. I think we may see it reappear but it would be brief even if it does. But a run of 5 dry days would be a relief for some. I still expect a weak ridge middle of next week till the weekend (Sunday) as shown by models few days ago, but will be the 18z tomorrow that will be earliest run that will sort this out in my opinion.

The GFS seems to flip from unsettled with sunny spells and rain showers through to unsettled with heavy rain. Nothing more than a brief ridge of high being shown by any model in reliable timeframe. However the opportunity for a more settled period is evident in Fi, I think alot will now depend on how much the Jet weakens over the next two weeks. If it does! Great comparrison John thanks for putting the time into making that PDF. Whats interesting this week is that the GFS is known for bringing things in too quick and making low pressure too deep, but on some recent runs it seems that ECM is bringing things in quicker ( normally as deep as GFS but faster) although occasionally ECM bringing the deeper prediction. That may be worth watching to see if any adjustment by GFS has taken place and if it under cooks things now, or if its found a accuracy against ECM.

Your a bit late for an April Fools joke - ends 12 oclock midday

Hi all, Well the asteroid was true enough, had to be as obviously people would check on it,but as for seeing it in daylight well that was an april fools joke. It certainly can not bee seen in daylight. So where was this years clue to it being an Aprils fool? Roal polif of Korean space agency Yes rearrange the letters of the name ! Well another bit of harmless fun. See you next year for the next one.

Just a few hours to go now, not staying up all night to see it, will get up about 8am, hope the cloud thins overnight.

Try spaceweather for details about this Asteroid, This is not closest recent asteroid was was 0.2 LD but its chemical make up that makes it interesting for viewing and its path aligning nicely in comparrison to angle of sun / Earth as it crosses our path. 6 hours earlier and this would not have happened. Its been dwarfed by stupid collision comments that are inaccurate, mainly end of world sites predicting a untrue collision likelyhood.

There is an article about the 2012 EG5 in this area, it is in asteroid visible from Earth forum, Its not going to hit Earth. Its a close encounter, but not highly unusual, a few have passed at that distance recently, its just we are more aware of them. The size is critical thou, if it had been a 1 KM size then the gravitational pull would have helped steer a collision.

There are scare stories about this asteroid, It is not going to hit the Earth, It is not unusual for an asteroid to come between us and the moon, this one is unique due to its composition. please do not take notice of doomsday websites that say it will hit Earth - It will not !! If you do want to know more about this asteroid then only use reliable websites like space weather.

A rare opportunity is close approaching to see a asteroid with the naked eye as it skims past the Earth. Next Saturday 31st march asteroid 2012 EG5 approaches the Earth. This is one of the many near earth objects being monitored and it special properties gives users accross the Northern Hemisphere a view that is extremely rare. 2012 EG5 was first spotted during January 2012 and its course brings it to within 0.6 LD of the Earth. This means that it will be 4/10ths closer to us than the moon. Roal polif of Korean space agency describes the 62m object as a metalic based projectile, rather than a more common rock based material. " The main material of 2012 EGS is of a composition and density close to silver" The asteroid will appear first at 7 degrees above the western horizon shortly before midnight 31st March. Certain locations may see glimpses of the Asteroid as sunlight reflects of the 62m body. There is some uncertainty on how bright this will appear due to its great distance and relatively small size. As dawn breaks the sun will be directly horizontal to the object and in perfect alignment with 2012 EGS to give anyone above 20 deg North a clear view. The asteroid will be clearly visible in daylight as it passes the earth on its closest approach starting at 8am on the Sunday morning, remaining clearly visible until 10:20 Am. At 11Am the asteroid will dissapear from view, as the light reflected no longer faces Earth. The asteroid will have travelled over 750,000 km during this short space of time. Tips to see 2012 EGS At 11pm 31st March the asteroid will enter the optimum position for the first time, and may as it rotates flash sunlight towards the Earth. It is estimated that the light ommitted at this stage will be less than Au3. Sunday morning at 8am the alignment of the 3 objects begins it optimum for viewing. The Northern Hemisphere Earth will be at exactly 90deg to the horizontal path of sunlight from the Asteroid. This will be visible for all Northern locations as the Earth rotates and sun rises. So where ever you are in the Northern hemisphere the Asteroid will be visible at the times above for your local area. As the sun reaches Mid Morning the light will hit the face of the Asteroid facing away from Earth and the Earth side will be in Shadow. The Asteroid will then be invisible and will dissapear into the solar system never to return again. All areas above 20 Deg North will be able to clearly spot the object with the naked eye, looking like the brightest star ever seen, and in daylight. ( Weather permitting) You will need No telescope is needed to see 2012 EGS during its daylight pass. Clear or partially clear skies will be needed. A location at or North of Northern Africa, Barbados, Northern India and Northern China, Europe and North America are prime Locations to view the Asteroid at 9am - 10am local time Sunday. Please report first sightings here

Nae has a very slight upgrade run on run for this overnight. Meto are blowing Hot and Cold ( sorry could not resist that pun) over this. It seems like it will move as far as Bridgend, however it looks that it will be marginal from Gwent Valleys Westwards. Marginal as in they are not sure if sleet or snow beyond that area. If it starts as snow then it could get quite nasty with four inches of snow. What is most surprising is that GFS has this moving into wales in a very similar way to Nae, but almost 24 hours later

yes high res NAE says snow, GFS says rain. I think Meto are sticking more towards NAE but its a nail biter again. Will do an update later as busy in work today.

The BBC graphics often reflect the NAE. The met do have their own model but it seems to be very close to the NAE and both are high resolution. In fairness when you take in how marginal this has been, you are talking slight elevation, timing of fronts, mixing of two air masses and trying to do whole country not just one persons back yard - i think Meto have as usual done very well with this.

Looking at next week and beyond into Fi Firstly the essembles The control and operational both have the 850mb temperatures at around -5 for most of the period, lowering at times to -8. That is right through to around 19th of the Month. The mean is cold at around - 2 so i would expect the models to have got a good idea of 850mb temps The 2m temps are cold looking very cold at times throughout the period. Percipitation is very low on operational, control and the average(mean), but i would expect this in this type of setup and expect surprises with percipitation as any shorwaves will not show up now. The Gfs also shows -5 uppers at times but getting close to zero at times in the west of the UK. From the last run there has been some subtle changes, perhaps slightly less cold uppers at times, but later in the period a low tries to undercut the UK, on each run this has moved Slightly south. Its probably far enough South as we want it, but will change as time nears,( too far North = Sleet / Rain : Too far South and we miss the percipitation.) These lows try to undercut us 12th - 17th. We have a strong block to our East over Europe and over Siberia. This will make moving the Cold away from us very dificult. This week the Cold will push back from the East and at times this is a dry direction, however East coast of England will have plenty of snow showers, some of which will make it to the west at times. By Thursday i think the wind will be quite a feature making it feel bitter, with this i see Snow showers in bands crossing the UK . Then we look for a Low trying to push North East, if that stays Just south of the UK we could have an Event. So after a brief less cold period to start the week we then get a signifigant cold air mass that gives opportunities for snow, increasing as the week goes on. Do not worry about percipitation amounts and places for now, things will change as the week progresses and some percipitation will not be forecast until 24 hours before. I hope that helps and gives an insight to what we can expect over the next 14 days

Will do a week ahead forecast in next hour, just got home from the football.

Dew points of 0C or above = no snow

Still heavy snow in Wells - was not forecast for there, and definitely not for now. So cold has lasted longer

Looks like heavy percipitation heading into Swansea, any reports?

When percipitation falls, evaporative cooling always occurs. It can only help a little though. Turns marginal to an event . Can not turn warm air cold enough thou. It drops temperature by less than 1c normally. But it can make a difference. Heavier the percipitation the more cooling.

Sorry ! On a brighter note for you, more chances into next week Fingers crossed everyone sees some over next 7 days.

Evaporative cooling. As the percipitation moves through the air it cools it. Exactly the same way an air conditioner works. So in heavier percipitation more cooling of the air