pyrotech

Hardly surprising the models at 850mb and surface have not got a clue, the 500 are all over the place but with one theme in common, which is a distortion to the polar vortex. This is what everyone should be looking at, lots of positive there, and lots of possabilities. It also shows why no model has any clue beyond 5-6 days. Patience is the word of the day and lets see how these charts materilise.

I am saying that a solar flare will have little or no impact on our weather, im not so sure about a CME as they are bigger and stronger I replied as your a forum mod but i also posted in a more appropriate forum so perhaps anyone wanting to read what nasa says about this and continue the debate can do so there http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/14968-aurora-sun-activity-resources-thread/page__st__20

The effects of solar flares on weather by NASA There is no known relationship between individual solar flares and weather. There is, however, evidence for a relationship between the solar activity cycle and global climate. The best known case is the correlation of a long period of solar inactivity called the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) with the lowest temperatures recorded during the "Little Ice Age" that occurred from 1500 to 1850. Almost no spots were observed on the Sun during this period. There is evidence for the correlation of other periods of low solar activity with cooler temperatures on Earth as well. The temperature above the north pole in the stratosphere (about 10 km above the surface of the earth) appears to be correlated with the 11 year sunspot cycle. The stratospheric temperature above the pole is relatively warm or cool when the Sun is active, depending upon which way stratospheric winds are blowing above the equator. There are also other climatic effects that appear to be associated with the sunspot cycle. The physical mechanism responsible for these apparent correlations is not known. Until such a mechanism is found, the existence of a direct relationship between the solar cycle and climate will not be generally accepted.

I think you will find that its mostly monthly changes not short term changes and very negligable from a single m class flare. the rarer x class i am not so sure about, Although these flares are huge with the energy they emit, they are comparatively small compared to the wholesome energy given off the sun. If the SSW does not give us the cold spell we hope for then i stand by the original quote i made that it will not be due to this m Class solar flare. i have added what NASA think of this to an appropriate thread/ forum please go there if you wish to discuss this further or to read NASA statement http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/14968-aurora-sun-activity-resources-thread/page__st__20

I think this highlights to us how we are still in the begginings of forecasting the atmosphere. The best computers in the world, some of the best brains programming them and lots of understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere that we know about. Problem is its a very complicated and dynamic science and there is alot of information we still do not know, that we do not know that we do not know !!! The models are only as good as the information for the formulas that was inputted by humans, lots of inconsistancy remains. Lets let the polar vortex split do its work and set up blocking before we throw the toys out of the pram. Im a little dissapointed to see valued, longterm , informative posters on here being given a hard time. If the models can not get a grip, then noone on here can, but we can and are allowed to make informative speculation and ideas.

Fi only has 50% accuracy on the models at the best of times, in the reliable frame we see cooling of Europe and compared to now the UK - All models. The split vortex will change output drastically, Thats not to say we will get the cold and snow many want but it has lots of twists and turns yet. Final picture will be very diferent. Its almost funny, that if GFS had shown -15 850s flooding in on the end of the run we would all get excited and believe it, but fi is even more fi right now, nothing is sorted its just a case caution whatever the models show in fi until the vortex splits and blocking forms and stabilises. Even then we have forecasted more SSW events to further complicate it. Just look for a trend to appear and look for potential, thats just what the split vortex from the SSW has caused - potential and patience is needed to see if it comes to fruitition for us.

I do not understand? Perhaps these posts should be in the solar thread, but anyway What has 1947 being in solar max have to do with anything? Firstly for any signifigant climate changes you need cumalative years of low solar max and solar min. Then you get a lag of several years. So our lowest for many years minimum would take several years with the lag to have an effect. Like around now not during the actual minimum. I think we would need a end to max now, and another low minimum to see any recordable climatic changes. To see lag and effects see Dalton and Maunder minimum.

Yes, but remember this is for next week, with high pressure ridging in over the UK, slack winds and less cloud we will lose radiated heat at night. I don't believe this is a forecast for very cold conditions and snow. Its a normal cooling from exceptional mild towards the normal with what would be expected with this orientation of high pressure. They would not be able to talk about cold conditions two weeks away as the senior forecaster dictates the line. Its still a positive, as getting colder temperatures on the ground does help, especially over Europe as it minimises the modification when any cold floods from the North. But for now we are looking at from mild to normal winter temperatures scenario.

The only impact this will have is possible Aurora, nothing short term with weather are proved or noticed. Statistics have been colated and nothing signifigant found in short term. The biggest impact is the very low minimum we went through and now the low maximum, we are either at maximum or are forecast to be in 2013. During the last week the sunspot number has increased signifigantly increasing the possabilities of flares, depending on the extent of this sudden increase we could still see a small count when smoothed count is done. The low maximum up to now and very minimum could have effect, with a time lag, just like our shortest day and coldest part of winter have a cumalative time lag. The ens are looking positive with both the 2m and 850mb temps (mean) showing lower temps, i would suggest that the models can only run forwards from the current situation and normal variations for the different runs. The effects on the troposphere from the SSW will still play the models up. Its a guarantee that many in Northern hemisphere will see very cold conditions in next few weeks, but where exactly ( compared to our little island) is still to be finalised. We will see the models change rather suddenly as the effects happen and we could possibly see some very interesting charts if blocking falls right for us. I would expect GFS to show interesting charts in fi early next week, but caution will be required, as it either starts pushing it back in time or brings it forwards. Expect a model rollercoaster - and the express news paper to make its armegeddon winter headlines.......again

The Ensembles are quite interesting, alot of agreement till 11/01/2013 then they have not got a clue, looking at Cardiff for instance ( its the same accross the South UK) We have the operational going for 2m temps of 9c lowering later to 6c (daytime max) The control has -2c lowering to -5c daytime max. The mean also drops consistantly throgh that same period. So the trend looks like getting colder looking at the mean, but uncertainty between the op and control is huge. 850mb temps are also 13c different around 17th between the control and operational.

The NAO is atmospheric not ocean driven, its the difference in high and low pressure over strategic places. At the moment models hint of a Azores high to our south and Iceland low to our North that are main drivers for NAO In regards to Teits question, the NAO can be effected by the SSW if it allows heights to build to our North, like Greenland high that pushes or at least ridges towards iceland causing a less low pressure there, that would cause a Negative NAO or at least a weakening. So yes it depends on the pattern, but yes the NAO can be disrupted by SSW, This is probably our main driver so without it being disrupted would probably hint that heights are too far East and so we would get runs of low pressure, much same as few weeks ago.

Happy New year everyone. Just a precaution on the SSW and to ensure that less experienced users do not get to think cold and snow is guaranteed. The Met Office are discussing this, and they think it is feasable that we will see a cold spell like 2010. However like many seasoned members here are aware it all depends on where the high pressure sets up its stall. one such quote is "to whet the appetite the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming split the polar vortex (rather than displacing) and so does this one! " So yes we have an opportunity for something rather special. But the cold could stay in Europe if other factors do not come in to play that makes it right for our little Island. The models are showing the SSW propogate, but the effects nearer the surface are totally not represented IMHO on the models and will not for a little while, i expect the models to fish tail a little and then when everything starts to happen it will then get interesting. Its a very exciting time for cold lovers, but a time to be causious in case, as the fall can really hurt as we found out with the beast from the east. I would say that once the models do pick it up in both cross model and consistancy ( if we are to get the cold air) that its more likely to happen than what happened a few weeks ago. But until we get that then its a case of one step at a time. We do look like heading in right direction with heights trying to ridge north of us as shown in the models, but they really do not know where to exactly place it, the trend right now is that blocking will be over Russia / Siberia, I still have a horrible feeling if that happens it could be a repeat of what happened with our neighbours getting an awesome winter. with the effects moving from stratosphere to troposphere occuring during next fortnight i think we will see alot of changes on the models. I would suspect what Ian is talking about with discussions at Meto, is the possabilities of this cold, that somewhere in Northern hemisphere will get something very special, but for us its a possability, Europe probably almost a certainty. ( Ian please correct me if im wrong) What ever happens it will certainly make model watching very interesting, but its not guaranteed cold and snow for us - at the moment.

Lots of positive things happening and yes they are starting to show in the models but Firstly the polar vortex will be disrupted, the SSW will disrupt it and models showing this, it does not mean we will get cold and blocking in right place, it gives us a great opportunity. Remember a few weeks back, it can block to our East and send cold down to Greece instead. Secondly a second part of the puzzle will be the Greenland high, again hints from the models that it will form, if it does that helps us hugely with my first part above. One or two members are getting excited, it understandable but i just do not want to see disapointment in 10 days time. Much is in place, models hinting at putting the picture together correctly for us, and mid to end Jan could be exciting, but lets not get excited and light that cigar yet. There is still much indecision on the models and things can still go very wrong if we get stuck with blocking in the wrong place. It could still end up stuck in mild and wet for us, Mainland Europe and USA in the freezer. I want something seasonal more than anyone but its a very tentative situation. Hense why the Meto update hints at possible change to colder in MRF.

Take one look at the ensembles and watch the scatter after 5 days then imagine the scatter after six weeks. It becomes climatology rather than meteorogy after a few weeks looking for trends. Most will know what looking for trends did for us a few weeks ago and that was ten days ahead. Remember thou that they say something like 55% chance. That means 45% chance it will not be true. most of us on here do have an understanding on how complicated and chaotic this science is so there is no critism of meto. Infact 5 days out they are very good indeed. We just do not have ability to put all equations together for long term in to a computer.

Its not so much a default set in GFS. Its a numerical model. basically programmers put in the numerical equations. The models start at a start point that its data says is current ( plus some changes for inconsistancy, hence extra runs in ensembles) It then uses those equations to attempt to run forwards. Problem is the models need to take account of so many variables at different latitudes and different heights. Anyone that thinks we have all that complicated data correct is living in fi them selves. then we have the chaos theory then computer programming errors (bugs) To be honest the models are pretty good to 5 days, but i feel that some of that is due to the differences are less effective at that range, we are still along way off perfection, but if we were not we would have nothing to talk about on here. Imagine a scenario of 240hr models completely consistant and cross model consistancy. What would we talk about except the obvious weather ahead. If we take a step back, what an awesome time we live in. The models leave us some interpretation, We get everything in almost real time thanks to computers. When i started i had to receive surface pressure charts (fax charts) via HF radio and navtex broadcast codes and decode them on a pc. Its easier today thanks to sites like netweather to watch the models, yet we still have the uncertainty and discussion.

Nick if you look at the stats for GFS and ECM they both fall off sharply after 240, Ecm actually catches up with GFS in performance failure. To be honest with all the advance we made, i see model consistancy with actual outcome from UKMO and ECM is very good to 5 day then falls off dramatically. Both ECM and GFS are equal in predicting a trend change in deep fi. I suppose its what makes the most interesting, dynamic and complicated science so interesting for us.

I do like it.'the darkest hour is just before the dawn' It means there is hope, even when things look at their worst and things can only get better, perhaps in the case of the models there is some truth in that. There is some truth normally in - the coldest hour is just before dawn, especially in winter, even as the sun rises above the horizon temperatures drop until the heat from the rising sun is equivilent or greater than loss thru radiated heat loss. I do like the optermism here, i am of the same optermism but as the clock ticks i am getting worried. EUROTRASH HIGH LOOKING MORE LIKELY ........NO !!!

Its so nice thou to come on here when nothing is happening cold wise, the model discussion is full of interesting posts and everyone very amicable. I think that will change as we move into 2013 with GFS probably showing something interesting deep in FI as it takes on the expected changes in the vortex from the SSW. Then mayhem as ECM jumps on at 240. Thats my positive post for the evening, its based mainly on the fact that i really do not want to attend any more flooding incidents, vehicle collisions etc or see our high volume pumps sent out again. Everytime it means someone is having a miserable time. There is at least the positive that the South may become a little dryer for a time with good consesius accross models, the unknown is what the pattern and blocking will be as the disrupted vortex takes place. I am a half glass full person so i am going for second time lucky. Lets be honest thou, we really can not see the outcome until it propogates and we see where we are at the time. Its a case of There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don't know

Yes all summer we saw a huge Greenland high and it ruined summer, i too wished the models would continue to show the same thru the winter, talk about sods law. I agree also that this could go one of two ways in general, but if we are just out of arms reach we could be getting alot more rain with it. Remember the low that sat to our West, yep that scenario can not be ruled out again. So i see it that over the next few weeks the models will show its hand and it will basically make or break us. Thats not saying no cold this winter, but if it does not come this time it could be very bad for flood effected areas. If nothing else it keeps us watching those models.

I agree, its a very positive sign that a SSW will occur and towards the end of January we could see something more seasonal, but its alot more to it than that. Somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere will get a cold plunge, but it could be Europe right down to Southern Greece. Things still need to be in the right pattern at the right time. I have a horrible feeling that we will have a Euro trash high over next fortnight, It ridges North to us and then some uncertainty with what it does. Its positive for those rain soaked areas to have a break, but we need to watch this as it could set us up for another round of Atlantic fronts with the UK the bullseye. Equally we could get something cold although nothing really showing that right now. If things are in the right place as the SSW the disrupted vortex then we could really have a mid winter spell of cold. Problem is, generally as the changes migrate from a SSW the disrupted vortex will intensfy what you have and blocks it in for a persistant period. So its all about timing. The biggest positive i can bring to the forum is we are having a pattern change with the high moving in attempting to slow the Atlantic down for us. I would normally say the Atlantic slowing is allowing the high to ridge North but this does not seem the case.

It is all very encouraging, but a split votex is only one part of what we need, it certainly gives us a very good chance to get something cold, but remember four weeks ago, if surface pressure is not also right pattern in Northern hemisphere, we can miss out. The positive is that a Greenland High may indicate that everything will be completely different this time and the split vortex may cause be the reason that heights are indicated to increase there. The models certainly are picking a new trend, i am just not sure if two weeks down the line, where it will be leading. It could cause heights to rise over Siberia which would put us back to square one (possibly) or heights nearer Greenland. I will leave our resident experts forecast the effects on vortex ( Chono and GP) but although alot needs still to go right for us, i have a gut feeling that around 15th Jan the servers will be at bursting point on here. Based just on the SSW and models trending towards a pattern change.

Surface pressure and Jet stream are not looking good for Cold, apart from very deep in Fi where a GH seems possible, i am relying on the SSW disrupting the vortex. Without it we could see a euro trash high and lively Atlantic. Even now, those calling it a drying out for the south need to remember, although it has consistancy and cross model agreement the high may not make it as far North. We are talking a couple of hundred miles and wet thru middle of country would remain. The positive is that within the last month we have seen the models all change output dramatically over a 24 hour period for fi, so perhaps the stratosphere can deliver and something come of this, but without it i see any high that does ridge up to us, being pushed south or East rather quickly. Neither good for us. Like i said Fi also gives hope of a Greenland high. Typical that we could not give it away all summer, now we can not even get one for xmas. As for winter being over if we do not see something in next few days, people need to remember we are more likely to get snow at Easter than xmas so few months yet to play with.

Yes im on phone posting as out and about. Can not see what i wrote till after. Who called it a smart phone. It can not even spell. So my thick fingers on my THICK phone . Take care in flood area.

Lot more expexted in worst effected areas .About how meto award alerta and warnings to keep us safe. Firstly likely hood of weather in area. Population effectwd and likely disruption. Thirdly severity likelyhood and liferisk to area. Rhey will look at rainfall amounts but also current water table.YAq Have a flood bag prepared. Move stuff upstairs and may be to friends or family home. Monitor forecasts and flood warnings. Listen to local news and heed vice from emergency agwncies. Take care do not drivethru floot qater. A foot can drag a car away. Walking in it dangerous too. Contaminents and bacteria. Trip hazards kerbs debri. Open drains can suck u in. Driving in floodwater can get you stuck and car deatroyed. Insuranse companies did say not paying out if you purposely drove in it. Plus laatly if yo did get thru chance u damqge catlyatic converter . That willl cost a bit further down the line. Hope you all avoid the mes and inconvenie but if not get aelf sorted as easier than after. If you put a flood bag togethwr include food. Hot flask. Importand tocuments including certificatwa inaurance forma. Valuable photos that can not be replaced and warm clothing. Lets hope you do not need it but if you do then you saved aome stuff. Laatly can u make you home flood resiliant. If u can do it as early as you can

It looking better for cold and snow after xmas but few more runs and ensembles. Over next 24 or so hours. Lets not forget the last beast from the east just a fornight ago. Ita still a very liquid situation and we need it to be come sold literally. But the consistance on ensemblea ia defo an imprtant step forward almost all runs ahow cold close to or over us.crossed fingers time as alot of factors making small change will have effect. But getting slede out tomorroq ready for day after boxing day.