Scorcher

Absolutely incredible day here today- hardly a cloud in the sky and already past 12.0C. One of those very rare exceptionally mild sunny days. Just enough of a breeze to keep the haze away but nothing excessive at all.

Yes incredible day here- clear blue sky and 12C. Hard to remember a better day at this temperature in December. With very little cloud I wonder if we could reach 14C this afternoon.

Wishful thinking...could be but almost certainly won't be the last mild spell we see.

Not necessarily- with a good breeze we could see some sunshine here- as we did on Christmas Day 2011 in a very similar setup.

Some amazingly mild air showing up for the weekend and early next week. It will be interesting to see if we can get that rare combination of exceptionally mild air and sunshine. The GFS charts for the weekend remind me of the exceptionally mild Christmas of 2011.

A fair bit of sunshine here today. Not much rain at all either.

18.7C at Rostherne this afternoon. Certainly warmer than expected.

18.7C the max temp here today- very decent for the 2nd half of October.

Yes it's a really decent day in the NW- surprisingly warm and muggy feeling too. 18.4C at Rostherne at 2pm- will be interesting to see if it got slightly higher than that as well.

Very decent day here and surprisingly warm. Went out for a walk this afternoon in a light jumper and was a bit too warm while the sun was out. The wind is a lot lighter than yesterday too, adding to the muggy feel. 18.4C at Rostherne at 2pm and may have got slightly higher in between the hourly observations.

Should be a rise again after today I imagine. It's going to be a very warm day on the CET for the 2nd half of the month.

Usually yes but there are still exceptions. High pressure in the right position can still produce sunshine and mild/warm temps well into November, as we saw last year: Or even December: The last chart produced a memorably clear, sunny day here and a max of 10.2C. The core of the high pressure being directly over the UK would probably have been colder though.

It won't be dropping at nearly the same rate from now on though- should stabilise over the next few days with this milder air.

Does anyone seriously think the GFS is going to be The GFS 12Z op run has actually moved towards the ECM/UKMO at 144hrs: I'm almost certain we'll be seeing the GFS back down more tomorrow.

Your time will come for that but I don't think it's going to happen yet. The odds are very much against the GFS scenario in FI. It keeps throwing up these op runs that are well below the mean.

The ECM hasn't moved at all though. I know where my money is in a situation like this...

Anyone getting excited about the GFS should note its recent performance- it hadn't even nailed down the warmth over the weekend less than 48 hours out. It has a tendency to overdo these cold scenarios and the pattern it shows in FI looks very suspect to me. The ECM shows how this colder spell could be a short-lived affair. If the winds turn southeasterly as the high drifts east, we could easily be left in warmer air again.

I went out in shorts and t shirt for a walk around Wilmslow earlier- I was actually sweating. Maybe it was warmer here than where you are.

I think we've witnessed the perils of this sort of spell this late in the year over the last few days. It's very hit and miss in terms of where cloud will show up/linger. Today was again rather cloudier than I'd hoped here- although sunnier than yesterday. It seems like SE England did by far the best in this spell and also parts of the SW at times. It's certainly been cloudier than I expected overall here. That said we've recorded the highest October temps since 2018 locally on Saturday and then Sunday. I can't help but feel though that it could have been so much more.

Really? It was still 20C at Rostherne. Well above average and felt very warm at times in the sun today.

It was like that here yesterday as well. Lovely today though. I think it's pot luck at this time of year in terms of whether you'll be stuck under cloud. Yesterday was so windless here that there was nothing to move the cloud on. It probably would have burnt off in summer by late morning.

Still plenty of time for that to flip back again. There's a modern trend for warm ends to October. Another warm spell before the end of the month could cancel this cooler spell out.

Amazing how we've been completely cloudy here all day- I'm in Wilmslow which is only about 25 miles north of you. Not one minute of sunshine in the entire day!

Big shame we've been so unlucky with the cloud today but it still feels pretty warm to me with absolutely no wind and humidity at 95%.

I've learnt over the years that drizzle can never be ruled out in this area- even when not forecast! Bizarre today though...