Scorcher

Looks like we're the unlucky ones here today- cloud is just lingering here while most of the country enjoys sunshine. Looking at the satellite it really is remarkable unfortunate- places just over the Welsh border are clear. Remarkably there is actually some mizzle in the air in Manchester city centre too. Who would have predicted that?

22.0C at my local station Rostherne today, so warmer than yesterday. The GFS got that horribly wrong a couple of days back when it suggested we might only reach 17C here today.

Or Tuesday? Tuesday is looking as warm as today for many of us...

Glorious on this side of the Pennines.

Where was that? Haven't seen any official sites anywhere near that high north of the Midlands. Most of the higher readings in the north were in the west.

May 2018 was hugely impressive here with a number of days of unbroken sunshine across the month and locally it was better than May 2020 too overall. The last few days of May 2020 were fantastic too- almost unbroken sunshine for 5 consecutive days.

You'd certainly think that- but there are actually some in here that enjoy dullness and darkness- I'm yet to meet anyone outside this forum that does however. I also think the cold=sunny idea in the winter is a myth. The coldest months are not always sunny- in fact they're often dull. Southerly is the sunniest direction here at almost all times of year. Look at places like Moscow that are on a similar latitude to the UK and have much colder winters- they're also actually duller in winter too in terms of sunshine hours.

What gets me is we have a biological need for sunshine- we can't survive without it. People around the world survive very well without cold weather. Strange that some want to complain about people being drawn to do what is natural.

The cloud looks more broken across the region today than this time yesterday- I wonder if we could go a touch higher today despite the uppers not being as high.

1 day out so perhaps yesterday could have been a local date record.

October 7th 1995 was definitely warmer locally. 23.0C at Manchester Airport that day so I reckon it would have been something similar in your area.

Yes we compete well with places in the south in a direct southerly like that. Yesterday was held back here by cloud cover, which was fairly substantial during the morning.

27C in 2011- not sure of the exact figure as the local station Rostherne that I use for the observations wasn't operating in 2011. It certainly exceeded 27.0C on the 1st in 2011.

21.3C in Manchester yesterday. Although not as warm as it was looking a few days ago, it's still the highest October temp here since October 10th 2018 so not insignificant.

I don't think it's common by mid October at all for most of England. In fact in this part of the country we don't record a single figure maximum at all in the vast majority Octobers. In the last decade here, only two Octobers have recorded single figure maxes and all of the days were well into the 2nd half of the month.

No point talking any sense to him as there's no chance of him taking it on board. Some people will play anything warm down- even a historic 10 day September hot spell!

I disagree with a lot of this. The GFS has backed down on its idea of the colder air penetrating as far south as Yorkshire for Saturday, which it showed early yesterday. 20C+ north of the Midlands in October is not something just be to brushed off- it certainly doesn't happen every year. It looks like we will have at least 3 days over 20C here and Sunday looks slightly warmer again now. A northerly is by no means certain either- the ECM shows how we could almost completely avoid one or at least a brief and not particularly potent one.

The Met Office aren't having those extreme temps the GFS is showing for Scotland though- nowhere near. Looks like it could be wet up there on Saturday but even places like Inverness will still reach double figures according to the Met Office.

There's no way the ECM is wrong less than 48 hours out. What is going on with the GFS seriously? The ECM shows the 16C isotherm over my area, compared to barely 13C for the GFS (which was an increase on the 06Z run).

It's only really the GFS though that's so aggressive with the colder air penetrating south. It's more of a knife-edge than it was looking a couple of days ago but I think it will correct north again enough to allow most of England a warm to very warm day on Saturday. You're probably slightly more vulnerable to the cooler air in the east than we are in the west, if things end up as close as the GFS has been suggesting. Slightly frustrating that what looked like a historic day with the 850 hPa temps has been watered down a bit so close to the time.

If this warm spell does collapse it will be by far the latest flip I've ever seen in the models with regard to a warm spell. I must say I'm concerned now the GFS has stuck to its guns with the 06Z run for Saturday. The warmth is still nailed on for the south although I'm now more concerned we may miss out here.

One of the models is going to be seriously wrong- I'm almost certain it will be the GFS. I'm thinking it's an extreme outlier- but it's something you'd never expect 48 hours out. A really bizarre turn of events.

Is anyone seriously backing the GFS to be correct for the weekend? It's been all over the place this week. The ECM still looks rock solid in terms of the very warm air being widespread. Crazy that the GFS still can't nail the details for Saturday when it's only 48 hrs away now. Not sure I've ever seen such a late shift

Quite a few places on the continent last December/January that are virtually on the same latitude as the UK reached 20C.

Not an outlier but the op and the control are firmly on the lower end and among the coldest. A good chance of a cold spell not happening at all. Plenty of lines above the long term mean still.