Scorcher

Usually yes but there are still exceptions. High pressure in the right position can still produce sunshine and mild/warm temps well into November, as we saw last year: Or even December: The last chart produced a memorably clear, sunny day here and a max of 10.2C. The core of the high pressure being directly over the UK would probably have been colder though.

It won't be dropping at nearly the same rate from now on though- should stabilise over the next few days with this milder air.

Does anyone seriously think the GFS is going to be The GFS 12Z op run has actually moved towards the ECM/UKMO at 144hrs: I'm almost certain we'll be seeing the GFS back down more tomorrow.

Your time will come for that but I don't think it's going to happen yet. The odds are very much against the GFS scenario in FI. It keeps throwing up these op runs that are well below the mean.

The ECM hasn't moved at all though. I know where my money is in a situation like this...

Anyone getting excited about the GFS should note its recent performance- it hadn't even nailed down the warmth over the weekend less than 48 hours out. It has a tendency to overdo these cold scenarios and the pattern it shows in FI looks very suspect to me. The ECM shows how this colder spell could be a short-lived affair. If the winds turn southeasterly as the high drifts east, we could easily be left in warmer air again.

I went out in shorts and t shirt for a walk around Wilmslow earlier- I was actually sweating. Maybe it was warmer here than where you are.

I think we've witnessed the perils of this sort of spell this late in the year over the last few days. It's very hit and miss in terms of where cloud will show up/linger. Today was again rather cloudier than I'd hoped here- although sunnier than yesterday. It seems like SE England did by far the best in this spell and also parts of the SW at times. It's certainly been cloudier than I expected overall here. That said we've recorded the highest October temps since 2018 locally on Saturday and then Sunday. I can't help but feel though that it could have been so much more.

Really? It was still 20C at Rostherne. Well above average and felt very warm at times in the sun today.

It was like that here yesterday as well. Lovely today though. I think it's pot luck at this time of year in terms of whether you'll be stuck under cloud. Yesterday was so windless here that there was nothing to move the cloud on. It probably would have burnt off in summer by late morning.

Still plenty of time for that to flip back again. There's a modern trend for warm ends to October. Another warm spell before the end of the month could cancel this cooler spell out.

Amazing how we've been completely cloudy here all day- I'm in Wilmslow which is only about 25 miles north of you. Not one minute of sunshine in the entire day!

Big shame we've been so unlucky with the cloud today but it still feels pretty warm to me with absolutely no wind and humidity at 95%.

I've learnt over the years that drizzle can never be ruled out in this area- even when not forecast! Bizarre today though...

Looks like we're the unlucky ones here today- cloud is just lingering here while most of the country enjoys sunshine. Looking at the satellite it really is remarkable unfortunate- places just over the Welsh border are clear. Remarkably there is actually some mizzle in the air in Manchester city centre too. Who would have predicted that?

22.0C at my local station Rostherne today, so warmer than yesterday. The GFS got that horribly wrong a couple of days back when it suggested we might only reach 17C here today.

Or Tuesday? Tuesday is looking as warm as today for many of us...

Glorious on this side of the Pennines.

Where was that? Haven't seen any official sites anywhere near that high north of the Midlands. Most of the higher readings in the north were in the west.

May 2018 was hugely impressive here with a number of days of unbroken sunshine across the month and locally it was better than May 2020 too overall. The last few days of May 2020 were fantastic too- almost unbroken sunshine for 5 consecutive days.

You'd certainly think that- but there are actually some in here that enjoy dullness and darkness- I'm yet to meet anyone outside this forum that does however. I also think the cold=sunny idea in the winter is a myth. The coldest months are not always sunny- in fact they're often dull. Southerly is the sunniest direction here at almost all times of year. Look at places like Moscow that are on a similar latitude to the UK and have much colder winters- they're also actually duller in winter too in terms of sunshine hours.

What gets me is we have a biological need for sunshine- we can't survive without it. People around the world survive very well without cold weather. Strange that some want to complain about people being drawn to do what is natural.

The cloud looks more broken across the region today than this time yesterday- I wonder if we could go a touch higher today despite the uppers not being as high.

1 day out so perhaps yesterday could have been a local date record.

October 7th 1995 was definitely warmer locally. 23.0C at Manchester Airport that day so I reckon it would have been something similar in your area.