Scorcher

Remarkable- there are some really extreme possibilities then. I guess the issue with that is what comes after it though. Do we want the brief extreme heat and then average conditions to follow, or do we want the more prolonged, more moderate heat? An extreme plume like the GFS is showing for Friday 15th is not going to last long.

Not sure I've ever seen a chart like that before with the extreme heat so widespread- I can't recall ever seeing 37C for Manchester on one of these charts before. Extraordinary.

Doubt it will be 25-26C here in the west though once the pattern flattens- yes still good for the SE but further west we'd be limited to the low 20s.

I'm not having the 06Z- it looks better for early next week but flattens the high way too hastily when you look at the ensembles from earlier. Pretty sure it will be an outlier.

That's a huge improvement in the mean overnight- looking more and more likely now that some notable heat is coming next week.

It's always the problem with the Azores High. Lots of Atlantic moisture around it, so unless it builds in fully, we can subject to these fronts and relentless cloud- especially further west with the NW wind. That said, much better runs from the GFS and ECM this morning. I'm certainly less concerned than I was about missing out on the west side of the country now, with the high likely to drift into a more favourable position from Sunday onwards.

Might not be that extreme to be honest Nigel and there is still time for things to change. Could well end up hot and sunny across the NW as well- all I'm saying is it's on a knife-edge and could go either way.

This has certainly happened before with the Azores in play. We do far better with a S/SE flow here. That said, sometimes the Manchester/Cheshire area is just far enough south and east to benefit, while the rest of the NW is much cooler.

I'm not overly thrilled by tonight's runs from a selfish perspective. We are on a knife-edge in the west of the country in this sort of setup, with the high never quite settling over the top of the UK. No doubt it will be warm from the weekend onwards, but if the dice doesn't fall our way we could be stuck in the low 20s with only occasional sunshine around here. I hope I'm wrong of course, but I fear areas only 50 miles or so to the east could be scorching while we get 22/23C and lots of cloud.

Very early to be examining those precipitation charts, which are notoriously inaccurate anyway.

Fantastic GFS so far- particularly after Friday. It looks like for us in the west that it's going to take a while for it to properly warm up- looking pretty cool and cloudy until midweek at least here. This is the issue with the Azores high- it can be a slow process to get the high where you want it, with cloud and weather fronts often filtering in around the top of the high. By Friday though it looks to be moving far enough east for more of the country to get the warmth and sunshine and looks very robust from the weekend on for most of the country- very promising indeed.

It's certainly been below average rainfall when averaged across England. Even around here we only had 39mm in June- well below average, and we weren't one of the driest areas by any means. Sunshine was very slightly above average for these parts as well.

Does the fact you're vegetables are doing 'average at best' not point to an average summer so far, which is what the statistics suggest? I don't think June could have been considered 'poor' in England by any measure.

Agree, not sure what the despondency is about- still looks rock solid for a pressure build to me- unless I'm missing something? Yes the HP is further west than we would like at first, but the progression is clear (although slow) and that more favourable positioning of the high is creeping closer to the reliable time frame.

Probably more the lack of wind that is giving people that impression- there was hardly any breeze this morning at all which is fairly unusual in this country, even in a hot spell. That said, it's not exceptionally dry air either.

Stunning day up to around 3pm here- more cloud now but still feeling very warm and muggy. Temp has been as high as 27C this afternoon.

A beautiful day here up to about half an hour ago, with the sky clouding over since then. A really hot feeling day as well- up to 27C but has felt warmer than that with the wind relatively light and strong sunshine. More humid feeling that recent days as well.

Not denying anything Mushy, all I'm saying is what you've admitted yourself- that the anomaly charts haven't been on the money this week. Although I agree they are one of the best ways of understanding the direction of travel, I don't think they are a panacea of forecasting by any means- they are wrong too sometimes.

This is very true Seb, it doesn't take much of an adjustment to leave us in great summer conditions at this time of year. Only 4 or 5 days ago we were staring down the barrel of potentially a very cool and unsettled week this week according to the NOAA anomalies.

Apart from tomorrow I can't see too many below average days ahead- looks like recovering to slightly above for Monday and Tuesday. At least we've broken the duck of very warm days so far this year- quite a few above 20C since mid April but good to finally break the 25C barrier. It was above 25C before midday in these parts. I often make the point though that the Manchester/Cheshire area is different to the rest of the NW in summer and sometimes benefits from heat when other parts of the region don't.

Fair enough, that doesn't always come across in text online.

It's still not to be sniffed at- 28C is a high temperature in June in NW England. In recent years this sorts of temperatures have become more common, but there have been many Junes that haven't seen those sorts of temps in these parts. We had higher temps in June 2019 and 2020 but this is miles warmer than anything we had last June.

Well it reached 28C at Manchester Airport earlier this afternoon- can't have been that different in Irlam. It was never really expected to be in 'heatwave' territory in the NW today. I was out on the golf course in Alderley Edge today- it was certainly hot when we started out at 1pm, even with the breeze. It did cool slightly by 3pm but still very warm and sunny.

People are reading too much into the temperatures showing from run to run. Almost always in these setups I find temperatures go higher than initially predicted. Interesting to see things beginning to correct north for Saturday as well- the heat is definitely clinging on further north than it was on the previous run. It's not going to take much of an adjustment for most of England to have another hot day on Saturday. Friday now looks like a nailed on hot day (27-32C) for most of England.

Always amusing how the harbingers of doom appear (two posters in particularly) every time there is a downturn in the output. Fair to say the GFS 00Z is a huge unsettled outlier in it's latter stages. I really can't see a huge amount wrong with the ECM 00Z. Not an exciting run by any means but fairly average. And as others have alluded to, average at this time of year is pretty nice in general.