Scorcher

I think you'll find that's untrue as I hardly ever post in winter or even read the forums. In this case it's mostly people who supposedly want summery conditions, but simply love a moan. It's not celebratory in the slightest.

Great Post Matt- couldn't have said it better myself. So many amateur forecasters in here convinced they know more than the Met Office- and this is days before the event has even happened! Always interesting how certain posters reappear as soon as something seems to be going wrong. Has anyone considered the fact that the professionals have a lot more data available and years of expertise and training?

Have a look at Trevor Harley's summary of past Mays- you'll see that there were plenty of wet Mays in the past: Weather May WWW.TREVORHARLEY.COM I think remembering May as always being warm and dry is selective memory. The wet Mays tend to be forgettable while we remember the warm, dry ones. Eastbourne is of course drier and sunnier than NW England on average.

Nothing unusual about this May at all in terms of cold if you look at the historical records. It's actually been a very warm month across the country overall. Notable around the Manchester area how the nights have been warm, certainly up to a few days ago. It has been dull but there have been Mays with much colder spells than this one. We've had a few in the recent pasts with cold spells and frosts (May 2020 had a notable cold snap despite being a warm, sunny month overall). 2021, 2005, 2010, 2012 and 2013 all had chilly periods that I can remember well. It hasn't been that windy either compared to some in the past, although I take the point that there have been a lot of breezy days. My birthday is the 28th and yes more often than not it's been dry and fine. However I do remember a few years when it's been horrible. 2007 was a prime example when we barely got out of single figures.

It looks considerably better from Wednesday onwards for most of us and it looks like we'll finally get rid of this cool air- hopefully for the rest of the summer.

What a big improvement from what we were looking at a few days ago- I'm surprised there isn't more enthusiasm in here tonight. Still question marks over that shallow trough but the Met Office isn't predicting too many problems from it. It's now looking increasingly likely we'll get a pressure build into the weekend and some much-needed sunshine. A warmup is nailed on which is not something that could be said 2 or 3 days ago when there seemed to very little light at the end of the tunnel.

One thing that looks nailed on is a warm up of some description. That's a big improvement from a couple of days ago when there were no signs up a warm up at all. I must say this has been one of the strangest periods of model watching I can ever remember, with so little consistency from day to day.

It's nothing alike- you've made those comparisons, not me. The weather is the weather. It's rarely life-threatening (in the UK anyway) and doesn't prevent you feeding your family. I have a lot of sympathy with those who are really struggling financially due to circumstances beyond their control and would never trivialise that.

It's you that brought up the cost of living- that is a prime virtue-signalling tactic. I also suffer from SAD to a degree but moaning about the weather doesn't help with it.

There are the moaners and then there are the extreme moaners- you two are definitely in the latter category. Actually depressing reading your posts. The question doesn't have to be literal- it's just I don't understand why someone would allow themselves to get so miserable over something they have zero control over. Going beyond your virtue-signalling here to try and belittle me, you do have a choice and SOME control over where you live though and plenty of people do move abroad because of the climate. Many people do find a way despite challenges.

I also get frustrated by our climate but I don't take it to the extreme. You're literally attaching your happiness to something you have zero control over- it's a recipe for a very miserable life. It would be different if the sort of conditions over the next week were some kind of freak occurrence- but it's hardly totally unexpected in the UK.

It's the moan thread- moan all you want (as can I) but it's a genuine question. Either deal with our crap climate or do something about it.

Why don't you move abroad? Your life must be terribly miserable if your posts on this forum are anything to go by. Or would you miss the opportunity to moan if you lived in a place with a warm, sunny climate?

I think that was a bit of a freak occurrence though. Yes it is possible for northern France to sizzle while we miss out completely, but I don't think it's as common as many make out on here. Obviously if France is hot it gives us a better chance of being hot too.

Yes what a strange climate there. I was there in August once and it was genuinely chilly during the evenings.

The GFS is still looking better for the weekend than the ECM. Don't be surprised to see a shift towards the GFS in the morning.

Totally different patterns in the two months though. June 2007 was a far better month than 2012 which was awful from the word go.

June 2007 wasn't a bad month overall in these parts. I don't think you can compare June 2012 and 2007- completely different months. The first two thirds of June 2007 around here were actually very decent and the first 10 days were very good indeed with unbroken sunshine on several days. Of course it then went rapidly downhill in the last 10 days or so.

For all the criticism it gets, the GFS is often the first to buck a trend before the other models start to follow suit. So I wouldn't rule out the scenario the 06Z run shows just yet. I've said all along that I think the models are overdoing the retrogression and there is certainly still time for changes before the weekend.

The mean hardly dips below average. Are you the most negative man on the planet?

An excellent UKMO for the weekend. GFS seems to be trending the right way as well, although we certainly need that high pressure further east. There was a lot of pessimism earlier in here but I think there's a good chance of eastward corrections over the next few days. It wouldn't take much of a shift to give most of the country a warm, sunny weekend.

Hopefully just a rogue run from the GFS- a truly awful run for most of it. Hard to come back from a setup like it shows after the weekend. Hopefully as we get closer to the weekend we will see an eastward correction of the high pressure. That's certainly what happened with the recent high pressure (much to the disappointment of many) but on this occasion it would be a welcome development.

Should be another rise today with it being another above average day/night across the CET zone

It's been very dull on this side of the country- 69 hours up to yesterday at my local station. That's mainly due to an extremely dull first 4 days- we only had 1 hour of sunshine in those first 4 days and only 13.7 hours in the first week of the month. Things have picked up since then thankfully but still running well below normal.

I don't think big dent is likely at all now given the stage we're at in what is a warming month. I find the last week of May to be one of the most reliable of the year for being settled and warm so I would not be surprised at all if the month ends with a very warm spell that actually increases the CET. I would certainly choose a warm, dull, wet month over a cold one, that's for sure.