Scorcher

The CET may well hold steady from tomorrow until Monday and then will probably fall in the remaining 4 days of the month. It may well be touch and go whether we finish above 16C after corrections. I'd be shocked if it goes any lower than 15.9C now though. Looks to be a good chance that the final value will beat August now.

Yes I barely remember a drop off in temps even in October in 2014. I recall quite a few warm days and as you say that incredible Halloween. Unfortunately up here it wasn't sunny on the 31st, but I remember it feeling very muggy and cloudy with temps around 19C.

2017 was a pretty stormy one- 3 named storms in the season and ex-Hurricane Ophelia in mid October.

Long may this pattern continue. This is nature's payback for the awful cold May. Plenty of time for cold from November onwards.

Agree with this. Although the sun did feel reasonably strong today with the very clear air and sky in the afternoon. If there is any haze though in September you can definitely feel the difference from an August hazy day.

A rare night in single figures. They have been very few and far between going back to early June.

Thanks Roger, all very interesting. Fair to say there haven't been many warmer up to this point.

Not a bad run, especially for the south if it's more warmth you want while we can still get it. We have enough windy, chilly days in the year so that can wait until October or after as far as I'm concerned. This run will also hold the CET up- a very warm final figure is looking increasingly likely now.

Does it? Still looks like a glancing blow to me. It also looks like the south is going to stay warm into the weekend now- although increasingly breezy, I don't think the low 20s can really be described as 'autumnal'. If anything, the GFS is actually less unsettled for the coming week than it was yesterday- the core of the low is actually missing Scotland now. A few days ago it looked like it would plough through the UK. Anything properly autumnal is still way out in FI and with tropical storms in the mix, you can never be certain more than a few days out.

Has anyone got the records for the warmest Septembers up to the 20th/21st? This must be up there for the warmest first two thirds of the month.

Maybe the GFS run last night wasn't so outrageous at all? While an outlier, it picked up a trend for the low pressure to potentially miss the UK. Who knows what could happen if further adjustments happen in subsequent runs.

Lovely- chilly northwestery, cloudy and blustery and temps in the low teens. I really don't see how that could excite anyone? It's far too early for northerlies to be anything more than a nuisance.

Not until the 2nd half of next week at the earliest. Don't forget that in a cyclonic regime the minima will be held up. It also doesn't change the fact that this has been one of the warmest first halves of September on record- no getting away from that.

Looks like it's top 5 for warmest first halves. Even with potential corrections it's certainly top 10.

Even if there was a cooler outlook, it's very unlikely to be enough to drop it below 15C now. We're still well over 17C halfway through the month!

Very unlikely it will be going below 15C now. It would take something exceptional in the last third of the month- the models aren't showing anything of that magnitude at all. If this morning's ECM ends up verifying, 16C+ would be pretty likely.

There must be a good chance of this month ending up 16C+. Obviously hard to predict what may come in the last third of the month but there appears to be nothing cool in the offing. Minima look like remaining high which will mean any decline after today will be a slow one.

Yes I've been saying this for years- it makes no sense waiting until the end of March to put the clocks forward. The last weekend in February would be my choice and roughly equivalent to putting them back in late October.

I couldn't agree more with this post. Winter would be much more bearable for me if January was sunnier. As you say, December has the novelty factor with the run up to Christmas, It just seems like such a slog after that though.

I think that's more a case of Spain being in a very strange timezone for its longitude, I can't imagine there are too many countries in the world that are further ahead of solar time than Spain. Midday sun in Spain is after 2pm at this time of year I believe. It would make sense for us to be on the same time as France though. Apparently Spain followed GMT until the early 1940s when Franco changed the timezone to match Nazi Germany.

The absolute max in the 2011 spell wasn't over 28C in Manchester though, as far as I can tell in the records.

A bit early for that. Morning fog can become more of an issue late in the month but easterlies can still be warm.

You've contradicted yourself there though- you don't see why light levels affect people but then say that you yourself are affected by light mornings?

It's the moan thread, stop being so holier than thou...

An absolutely stunning couple of days here- both days have reached 28C and it's been almost unbroken sunshine. 2 of the best days I can ever remember in September around these parts. 25/26C has been reached a lot in September around here in the past but it's rare to exceed 28C.