Scorcher

Interesting how the temps for today and tomorrow for this part of the world have been hugely underestimated by the models a couple of days out. Have the models struggled with the surface flow and overestimated the effects of this perhaps? High pressure is so strong and winds so light that the breeze from the NW made very little difference to the temps yesterday here.

The GFS was at one point showing the heat and high pressure being swept away on Monday. It has performed very poorly recently. I still think the breakdown may be pushed back further- looks like Friday may be dry and very warm for most now and I wouldn't be surprised if Saturday also ends up good too.

No chance this is accurate- no stations close by are anywhere near this. Liverpool Airport has been recording very suspicious readings for months now. The east of the region is actually warmer today than the west.

No way in a million years that reading of 30C at Liverpool Airport is correct in a NW wind... That station is always far too high these days.

Yes if you're in Macclesfield that's fair enough- a bit higher up there too.

I'm in Wilmslow and it doesn't feel chilly in the slightest- 23.5C at Rostherne at 12pm.

I must admit I'm very frustrated this morning by what I'm seeing for the weekend- if the GFS is correct, Friday could well be warmer than Sunday in my area now. It looked for a long time like NW England could be one of the hotspots in this spell, now we might be struggling to get out of the low 20s on Sunday if the GFS is on the money. Monday barely reaching 20C now according to GFS- absolutely gutted. Even by the standards of the UK, we've been incredibly unlucky so far this summer, with many promising scenarios just not delivering sunshine and heat. I can only hope the ECM is right for next week as it would make up for the weekend disappointment to a large degree.

It didn't take you long did it Chris... The GFS while not quite what we hoped for, is still very warm to hot for many for most of next week. The ECM shows another warm up after midweek as well with higher humidity I imagine. Hardly disastrous. Details are still to be resolved as well after the weekend- still a good chance the heat could keep going I think with uncertainty over that trough dropping down over Scandinavia.

No doubt Liverpool Airport will record 35C while no other station within 30 miles records 30C...

I think we all knew it was going to be way off the mark with that feature- the GFS really has been all over the place with its op runs over the last few days. The ECM has been rock solid mostly with a few smaller differences between runs.

The GFS is disappointing but is out on its own this morning with that trough. ECM looks great until Wednesday but nothing like last night for the rest of the week unfortunately- hopefully just an outlier from Wednesday onwards.

Don't tell me you never look past 144 hrs in winter Crewe... I bet if there was a Beast from the East showing at 168 hrs you would be all over it!

Yes the ECM is truly spectacular- one of the hottest runs for a long time! The 15C isotherm is over the UK for several days and would probably mean widespread temps of 30C+

I quite fancy west Wales to do very well in this setup too. Somewhere like Aberystwyth will probably do very well in such a setup.

Looking like a very warm month is on the cards potentially, with the warm spell just around the corner.

Yes 25.5C at Rostherne on June 2nd. That said we are well overdue another 25C day- I certainly agree on that.

I take it you haven't seen the previous runs? I'm expecting this run to be on the colder side of the ensembles.

Still feel sick to my stomach about the football...but at least we have one of the best runs of the whole summer to bring some cheer. A truly sensational GFS 18Z. This is not going to be a 3 day affair guys...

Manchester Airport has already reached 25C, as has Rostherne near the airport.

Am I looking at the same run as you? Looks an absolute belter to me- what more could we expect? Only issue is right at the very end of the run but highly unlikely that scenario will verify anyway.

True that we haven't seen any notable warmth so far- but it's been consistently fairly warm by day as well as by night here- averaging 21.3C so far. Minima around average so far. So here at least, it's the day time highs more than night time mins that have kept the average high. It's been a very wet first third of the month and also very dull overall- but notable how few cool days there have been (only one day hasn't reached 20C so far in July, and that was 19.1C) even going back to the start of June.

Not according to the latest GFS run this evening. No end in sight to the HP. Granted this may be a settled outlier, but things are certainly trending towards a more prolonged settled period.

I'm surprised you and Alderc actually follow the models and don't simply follow sod's law all the time... We do get highs that stick over us at times- the one next week looks the strongest high I've seen for some time in the summer months which is why I'm dubious about the GFS evolution.

Again another strange run from the GFS. I'm suspicious of how such a robust and strong area of high pressure which begins to move in on Thursday suddenly weakens quite dramatically. The 00Z was basically bottom of the pack earlier on and I reckon this isn't much better.

I agree it's pointless trying to look at the detail at the surface a week ahead. Also the ECM and GFS are showing 2 very contrasting scenarios for the weekend and beyond. The GFS has a weaker area of high pressure this morning but it would be better in the short term nationwide, with a very warm to hot weekend for many but then gets flattened very quickly (very suspicious). There are big differences well within the reliable timeframe even- the GFS makes very little of that shallow trough over the continent whereas the ECM takes a lot longer to clear it, which affects the position of the high as it moves across the UK. Fair to say high pressure looks nailed on though.