Scorcher

I get the impression that one or two in here would be disappointed if there wasn't something to moan about... Things are really looking up from the middle of next week on- the GFS has backed down from its earlier rogue run and shows mostly settled and very warm/hot weather virtually to the end of the latest run. Looking very good for a much warmer, sunnier spell and I think we may well see 30C for the first time this summer (finally).

Based on what? An outlier from the GFS? I actually think things are beginning to look very good for a fairly prolonged spell of settled weather.

Yes we reached 30C in the last week of August here in 2019. I can't find another example of that in the records. Even 1995 and 1997 didn't manage it.

I can't argue about the spring to be honest- one of the worst Mays I can remember. April was sunny but far too chilly for much of the month. I think up here we had a much better June overall which has made up for it to some degree

With a June that was well above average? I get that it wasn't great in the south, but talk about hyperbole! I take it you can't remember June 2012?

You must not wear shorts very often in the UK then...I'm happy wearing them from about 19C up although will sometimes wear a hoodie or zip up jumper on top if it's cloudy.

We've been through this before about rainfall totals too... I'm struggling to see what is so awful about the ECM this morning.

I'm surprised that you're surprised- warm nights the last couple of nights in the CET zone and still reaching the lows 20s by day. It could actually rise again today.

Virtually every day here at the moment... The air is certainly warm enough to easily support temps over 70F if we get enough sunshine next week.

I'm struggling to recall another month that had such an odd profile for rainfall- almost completely the reverse of what you'd expect. Not only were areas further north and west much drier in relation to average but also in actual rainfall amounts.

So interesting how the experience has been so different further north and west- a good June here with a very sunny first half and dry throughout. 21 days above 20C here by day during June. Even the second half of the month had some sunny days here.

My local weather station only recorded 14mm of rain in the month- a very dry month overall here and all of the rain that did fall was in the 2nd half of the month. I'm surprised that some are crediting the minima with lifting the CET figure- here it's been the opposite. The average max has been 20.9C with a few cool nights, so actually it's been the daytime temps that have lifted the average. 21 days reached 20C or above during the month- very decent indeed. A very sunny first half here followed by a slightly dull (but still warm) second half.

I disagree with this...it has felt warm around here at least. We've been in the low 20s for much of the month by day here. It hasn't been 'hot' but I can't recall any other June that was so consistently in the 'warm' category by day. The classic Junes have often tended to have cooler spells (even 1976) with heatwaves bringing the average up. I'm sure those further south will disagree but I think this month would certainly merit being in the top 10 in the last century.

It really is depressing reading in here with a couple of regular culprits. We should have been experiencing flooding over the last few days according to these people with biblical amounts of rain- surprise, surprise it hasn't happened. I'm very much an amateur model watcher myself and I would never claim to know more than the Met Office for example (and obviously don't have access to the level of data they have either) but there are a few in here who think they know better. I'm expecting this trough to end up stalling to our west rather than simply ploughing through as the ops are showing. It's fair to say the ops should not be trusted more than about 3 days out at the moment.

As always some are getting very despondent from one set of model runs- the ECM was showing something very different last night so I'm not going to worry about what it's showing 8 days out. I must admit though it was slightly deflating to see that this morning when I hoped we might have a further swing to hot conditions.

Not saying I told you so but you and a couple of others were convinced it was going to be a dire weekend with biblical rainfall amounts. Many places in the south pretty much stayed dry in the end. Those precipitation charts are not to be taken as gospel by any means and the Met Office were never on board with the idea of huge amounts of rain.

Unfortunately the real strong high pressure that the anomalies were showing a couple of days back doesn't look like arriving at all now.

Personally I think it's slightly misleading to call the outlook 'poor'. Of course we want 2018 style high pressure domination but it could be a whole lot worse than what the ops are showing at the moment.

That's a good point- it looks like being reasonably warm for the foreseeable future whatever happens. Hard to see how any cool air is going to reach us. Of course that doesn't guarantee it will be warm at the surface but it means if it's dry it's likely to be warm for most of us.

Where is your evidence for this assertion? I can't see any real signs of the Atlantic firing up.

I don't see a lot of rain for the Manchester area from what I'm seeing this morning? Probably fairly cloudy during the week but I think most of the rain will be the Midlands south. The Met Office are going for dry and cloudy for this area so could definitely be worse.

Those charts are not to be trusted- they were showing biblical amounts of rain for the weekend a couple of days back and in the south it now looks like many places will stay dry tomorrow at least. The Met Office never showed a huge amount of rain over the weekend even when people on here were talking about how dire it was going to be.

Very borderline to be honest, I was confident about us staying dry looking at previous runs but not so sure now. On a knife-edge.

Got to be one of the strangest 850hPa charts I've ever seen- how unlucky can you get! The Atlantic is dead, very warm air basically surrounding us and yet an incredibly shallow trough gets trapped over the Channel. I've seen some bizarre developments over years of model watching but this is right up there.

The latest GFS run backs this up to a large degree. In any case this coming week looks good north of the Midlands and unusually better the further north and west you go. Anyone heading to the west of Scotland next week will be thrilled I'm sure.