Scorcher

Not sure I agree re. cloud amounts. I think it's very hard to predict where the cloud will be exactly from day to day. At the moment it seems to be central England suffering with the cloud while other areas that you might expect to be cloudy in a NE flow are actually clear. It's been very cloudy here this morning and most of yesterday, which is more a case of bad luck than anything as we're often protected to a degree by the Pennines. Areas just north of here have done a lot better sunshine wise over the last day and a half. We also had a very sunny day on Monday in a very similar setup. But yes unless you're in the far west there is definitely the danger of being caught under the cloud.

I can see the CET holding steady over the next few days- a lot of cloud cover over the CET zone overnight which is keeping nights warm.

Hard to say that so early- it's glorious here today so I'd expect at least 10 hours of sun today. A bit of uncertainty about cloud amounts for the rest of the week, but today has been sunnier than forecast for many so I imagine the rest of the week could follow. It's going to be a dull one but probably not to 2008 levels.

The models certainly seem to have dropped any prospect of retrogression today- which is certainly great news for those of us who want some warmth while we can still get it.

I will be surprised if this happens- a long way off and the anomalies are not supporting this at the moment.

You're always a big fan of those rainfall charts at long range though- they are often very misleading as we saw earlier in the summer.

Do you have info on all the places in the Northern Hemisphere then? That must take you a fair while to collate...

I've even had a sticky note from a troll calling me an 'alarmist' this morning- comical haha! He wasn't prepared to post his comments publicly as they made absolutely no sense. The odds are still strongly favouring a much warmer spell developing.

The mean is noticeably warmer than yesterday. Yet this morning you would think the chances of a warm spell had gone reading many of the posts in here!

Pretty sure this is another outlier- GFS looking excellent for next weekend.

Such a misleading post. What about the GFS which actually shows a very warm/hot spell for next weekend? UKMO also shaping up well. It may not turn out great in the end but we need some balance in here.

I find it surprising that 2019 had a cooler second half- what were the stats for the two halves?

Comical- literally the very bottom of the pack.

That would be disappointing though as it would delay any heat and that high at the end of the run doesn't look nearly as robust as it did last night. I do think it looks likely that we will get at least a couple of days of hot weather whatever happens, and hopefully a lot more than that.

It's looking very promising this evening- and the fact that we will be in the 2nd half of August when this possible hot spell comes will have little impact on the temperatures in my opinion. Every time a spell like this happens later on in the month, people think the shorter days will hold the temps back- in an air mass like the ECM is showing, it will be pretty much irrelevant. The days are still easily long enough to support temps well into the 30s. Don't forget that we've had mid 30s virtually into mid September relatively recently.

Looks like we're going to have to be patient but I think it's odds on that the high will move over us eventually- hopefully leading to a hot and sunny final week. Potential for something to develop like late August 2019 perhaps?

The logical evolution would be for things to gradually warm up over time and then possibly turn hot as the high drifts further east. Fingers crossed for a warm to hot last third of the month.

Yes I was going to mention last August. There is also a lot of quite extreme heat building in the south of Europe next week- could be very interesting if we get lucky with the setup over the next 10 days or so.

Yes this is what I was saying only a couple of days back- you and a few others were getting very negative about the output. You'd think summer was over if you stumbled across this thread with no knowledge of the models a day or two back. At this time of year you don't necessarily need an outstanding overall pattern to produce warm/hot days. Very slight alterations can lead to big differences in temperature.

Guys there is far too much despondency in here today. Yes the models are not showing the sort of pattern we want to see in August, but I always find that people place too much emphasis on the overall pattern and forget that nice days are still possible in the sort of setup showing for next week. I've certainly seen a lot worse than what is being shown for next week. Within this overall unsettled regime there is still scope for decent conditions at the surface from time to time, and even some very warm/hot days that can arise without much notice- particularly further south.

August 13th was hot last year as well- let's hope it is lucky for us again.

Such a remarkable stat- who'd have thought it? Amazing to see years such as 1995, 2003 and 1983 not in there. I suppose many of the great summers didn't really get going until late July onwards. Perhaps tells us a lot about modern summers which seem to be 'front-loaded' with few very hot Augusts.

You know all about that- you're one of the best at it in the CET thread!

A very good month here overall- a bit of a shame about the last few days of the month which have prevented an 18C+ finish. It's been unusual for a warm month in that the south has been cooler than the north for much of it. Minima have actually been on the low side of average here which has brought the overall mean down at my local station. Average max of 22.9C over the month which is comfortably above average for these parts and that's with the cooler spell at the end of the month that brought it down. 188.6 hours of sunshine, which is slightly above average but actually impressive when you consider how dull the first half of the month was- we only had 61,2 hours up to the 15th and then 127.4 hours for the second half of the month. So a very sunny and warm second half of the month.

Yes I thought the first half of last August was easily the best since 2003. As you say, it's a shame about the last third of the month which was very disappointing.