Scorcher

I think some may be surprised by how warm these last few days of the month end up being. I heard talk about cool nights in here- last night was warm here with the cloud cover which should boost the CET somewhat- I imagine today will be easily the warmest 24 hours of the month so far.

Often with the sort of setup being shown for next week I find that the trough eventually ends up further west as we get closer to the time or is even dropped completely. The models usually overdo these features when there is high pressure to the east- particularly the GFS. Don't forget a few runs showed a cut off low moving across us for Sunday only a couple of days back.

June had a CET of 16.1C- warmest since 1976 and equal with 2018. The June-July combination was very warm as well as the hot August.

2003 had a warm end of May/start of June- what a terrible summer that turned out to be! 2006 was also very warm after the first week of June. Pattern matching is futile- no two years are ever the same.

That's a pretty incredible mean after what we've been through this May- who would have believed that was coming two weeks ago?

30C and maybe slightly higher locally.

I'm not panicking about the GFS this morning- remember the cut-off low it showed for this weekend on a couple of runs a few days back? Just the typical fluctuations from run to run. The ECM is spectacular this morning though. Could be a very memorable spell if anything like that comes off. An outlier no doubt but not totally out of the question.

Nothing sealed yet but it looks like the GFS has been on the money so far- incredibly consistent in its output over the last 3 days and the Euros are gradually coming into line. Another superb GFS run tonight for warmth/heat. This is going to be incredibly sweet after what we've been through over the past 2 months weather-wise and much longer than that for general hardship!

My comment wasn't strange though. At all. Day 10 is open to question...full stop. Alright we might have a direction of travel- fair enough, I can accept that.

In any case I don't see what is so wrong with questioning any chart at Day 10. If the anomalies were always that accurate so far out, we wouldn't need anything else.

Er excuse me Mushy, the post I quoted wasn't referring to the anomalies at all or anything you posted. It was a Day 10 ECM op chart- make sure your comment is accurate before calling me strange please. Edit- I've just looked back and I'm pretty sure the original post was edited after I quoted it. I wouldn't have made that comment about the anomaly chart.

I think there is a good chance of things remaining settled and warm into next week now- the pub run is an absolute cracker! The models seem to have completely dropped any possibility of a rogue trough spoiling the weekend now.

I'd like to highlight something you said- day 10. I can almost guarantee that this won't happen.

The HP to the west is old news now- the anomalies have also picked on the trend for it to settle more over the UK. We don't need a heat pump for it to become warm to very warm in early June- if the high moves over us for a few days it will warm up very quickly.

Great news- the ops have been trending that way for a couple of days now with the high settling over the UK after the weekend.

It's a prediction not a guarantee. There are no guarantees other than daylight length. However even up here we've been reaching 31C+ reasonably regularly over the past few years so I think the odds on that being the highest temp anywhere are very low in the modern climate.

The ECM op is only an outlier from Monday onwards- it's below the mean for a time over the weekend. There's a chance we could see widespread temperatures in the low 20s over the weekend.

I have a good feeling about this summer. It would be very easy to write it off on the basis of this poor May (some have done). However once the pattern switches I believe we could be 'stuck' in a warm, dry pattern for a similar length of time that we've been stuck in almost relentless cool setups. I expect the modern trend of extreme plumes to continue as well- these have become an annual event over the last few years and have occurred multiple times in several recent summers. I think this may be more after the middle of July- with mid June to mid July being an extended very dry and very warm period without too many extreme temperatures.

A very welcome one too- feeling much more positive after looking at this morning's runs. Hopefully a 1975 style switch is on the cards.

The output is miles better than it was a couple of days ago to my eyes. It looks pretty much certain to warm up now next week, certainly after midweek. Nothing outstanding but a lot better than what we've had. The latest GFS run showing the possibility of 20C before the month is out which almost seems like a miracle in this very depressing May. Could be high teens for many from Thursday onwards.

Don't take Weatheronline's forecasts as gospel. They seem to be almost entirely based on the GFS and therefore swing wildly after each run. I enjoy looking at them when hot charts are being shown in FI- very high temps are often shown way out that you know in reality are unlikely to happen.

That really is a very good ECM- great to see the possibility of some warmer air being draw up from the south. At long last.

The GFS really is all over the shop at the moment- big changes with every run. Thursday looks rather messy on the latest run: In stark contrast to the UKMO at the same time- looks like a very decent day.

No it was because the heat was home-grown rather than imported from a hot continent. There is a clue in what you said- 'HP slap bang over the top of the UK'. Similar to early July 2018 in that way. We did reach 30C in Manchester on August 1st when there was more of a plume scenario. Generally the extremely high-pressure dominated months don't tend to record extreme temperatures that much. Nothing really to do with the SSTs.

Indeed, I do recall the SSTs being very low in 2013 after that cold spring and people then were remarking about how it was going to be hard to get any heat due to this- it wasn't a problem at all in the end. They must have been very low in 1983 as well. It wasn't a warm June that year either but it didn't stop July being record-breaking.