NorthantsSnow

It's been a great event. Pretty much exactly as forecast in terms of amounts.

Measured 8cm of lying snow at around 2245 GMT. Snow intensity has picked up since then. Best snow event here for 3 years. Really happy!

Snowing pretty heavily here at the moment. Great to watch!

The Midlands is a broad area. I can assure you that is nowhere near the maximum predicted for here.

Northampton College webcam shows the snow here quite well: http://www.northamptoncollege.ac.uk/newbuild/cameras/camera4.aspx

SF, it's moving southeastwards so of course us in the southeastern most corner of the region are going to be last to see the good stuff. Just be patient. The night is still young with several more hours forecast, and there's some heavier stuff on the way soon according to the radar.

OMG that is brilliant accuracy from the GEM at 120hrs out. Have you shown this to the guys in the Models Thread? I will definitely be keeping a closer eye on the GEM from now on.

Still snowing lightly with the odd moderate burst, accumulating a covering of sorts. It's been a good start to the evening.

Yes I've just been out for a walk and it does have that look about it. Fingers crossed, models still look good for our area later this evening.

You beat me to it. The snizzle has started. Might get a sugar coating at this rate.

Cheers Bish ! It does look as though our bad run of luck of late might finally be about to change. See you all tomorrow when we can switch to nowcasting.

Epic NMM tonight, especially for the eastern side of the region! I have attached what it is showing for the 6pm and 9pm hours to give you an idea. (hope this is okay mods)

It's probably the best case scenario. I find the NMM to be more reliable so I'm looking forward to seeing what that shows when it comes out shortly. Good luck for tomorrow.

NAE 18z looks very good, with the snow boundary line further west than the previous: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/03/basis18/ukuk/prty/12020500_0318.gif Also liking the darker pink splodge not too far from here!

First important frame of the NAE 18z looks good for the north west of the region: http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/03/basis18/ukuk/prty/12020418_0318.gif

No it hasn't mate. Have another look. The snow boundary line is further west than the 12z. Compare this: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120203/12/36/prectypeuktopo.png (old version) To this: http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png (new version) We are closer to the snow boundary line than before.

The GFS has slowed it down a bit in terms of how quickly it arrives. Not much further south and east than Coventry between 1800-2100 according to this run. I'll be sitting here reading the reports from the rest of the region whilst I'm waiting, of course.

The 18z output is starting to trickle out. All eyes on the NAE/NMM as these are the only models worth following this close to an event. NAE updates here: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edit: Ignore me, looking at the wrong charts.

I know what you mean, sometimes the graphical charts do not seem to match the text forecasts that closely in terms of whether it's rain/sleet/snow. But that is what it says when I look at the in depth 48 hour forecast for Evesham which I believe is based on the NMM.

Sorry mate, wish I had better news. You never know though. The models are not always correct. I've seen it before where sleet/icy rain is forecast and it has fallen as snow. It happened loads during that cold spell in Feb 2009.

Okay, hour-by-hour forecast for Evesham according to the NMM: Sat 16.00: light sleet (0.44mm) Sat 17.00: moderate sleet (1.01mm) Sat 18.00: moderate sleet (1.48mm) Sat 19.00: heavy icy rain (2.53mm) Sat 20.00: moderate icy rain (1.6mm) Sat 21.00: moderate icy rain (1.8mm) Sat 22.00: moderate icy rain (1.78mm) Sat 23.00: moderate icy rain (0.86mm) ------------------------------------------------- TOTAL PRECIPITATION: 11.5mm As you can see, looking very marginal where you are. Temps look a little too high to me, especially later on on Saturday. 2.4C by 11pm according to this model which is far too high. The best thing that could happen for you is it moving through a bit quicker. Otherwise I could see it being snow turning to rain.

Hi ST. The NMM shows moderate/heavy precipitation over your area for several hours on Saturday from 5pm though to around midnight. You would be looking at around 12cm IF it was snow all the way. However the model indicates it could fall as sleet. :wacko:

From an IMBY perspective I do like the NMM. Yes it might be quick to move through the region but the upshot of that is (for us in Northants at least) there is no back edge rain to wash it all away. So for those purely selfish reasons, I do hope the NMM has this one nailed.

Gutted if the current output is correct. Snow to rain events are a waste of time.