snowbunting
-
Posts
268 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by snowbunting
-
-
4 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
I don't see a great deal changing ahead, the models are finding their way. I asked the other had there been an SSW and reply was no and thus then I thought the HLB beauties wouldn't hold long. But mind you the slug and blocked Atlantic has stumped everyone so who really knows.
However, there is masses (and i mean masses) of seriously cold air to tap into and building and I am convinced a major arctic/continental arctic outbreak is coming for us around mid month onwards. Before that we are already going to get some nice cold conditions
BFTP
Agreed Blasty. Very cold events do no have to originate from NLy blocking events. We have seen plenty on the past come polar maritime directions.
-
1
-
-
Far more opportunities exist for colder weather to topple in down from the NW. Regardless of what model is analysed. I feel far more confident that we will have wintry weather in January compared to a very zonal second half of December.
Optimistic yes... pessimistic definately not.
-
Can I join in?
3.1C Think first part of Jan we are heading into the freezer!
-
1
-
-
Good morning folks. Models are beginning to liven up after an early december slumber. I was looking at the ensemble means for early part of Jan. With a Nly blast just after new year and then what looks a collapse into much colder air 5days later. The position of the high in the atlantic looks crucial but I suspect it will ridge northwards.
-
1
-
-
ECM still holding onto the idea of an atlantic ridge with nly airflow at215z. The GFS has thrown the idea out of the door. Suspect it will be a mixture of the two. January looking very unsettled and pretty cold at times too with very cold NWlies.
-
36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
The Gfs 6z shows a chance of a white christmas evening and night across scotland and the snow showers risk extends south across remaining northern parts through boxing day.
Yes we are expecting some more wintry weather.. allbeit a little slushy.
-
2
-
-
Wow. Woke this morning to a Greenie high, Nly flow and a block to the altlantic in early Jan with both the ECM and GFS agreeing for once at 240hrs. Cold core and wild cards indeed. Im not so good at teleconnections, stratospheric drivers etc but what has changed in the models direction last few days?
Away to batten down the hatches in North Lewis. Storm Babs is knocking on our doors.
-
8
-
-
We live in North Lewis. Right in the firing line. All ferries and buses cancelled tomorrow. So our family will stay in. I suspect this one might cause a few surprises (adventures).
-
The meto office has issued us with a yellow be aware warning for lightning and wintry showers wed into Thursday for the western Isles. Any idea how severe it is likely to be? From the charts the Western Isles is about to get all flavours of weather over the next few days.
-
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Probably right. Since its upgrade, the ECM op has handled heights in the Atlantic quite well inside T192 so if it wants a temporary ridge for Xmas day, it will probably happen. The GFS, of course, can get a little overexcited with these Atlantic storms although we've seen it get them right at times too.
Very true. The GFS has tended to play lows up, this time around it was the ECM that brought in the monster low scenrio in the long range. Looking at the differences in air masses on the other side of the pond, I suspect the GFS has it spot on.. eeekkk
-
Hmmm. Think the ECM will show where the christmas low will be placed. Thank goodness we have had a dry autumn. Otherwise flooding nightmare with low after low present.
-
1
-
-
Zonality surely not all bad? Prefer it to the anticyclonic gloom. I still think its too marginal to call for the big day. The polar maritime air is knocking at the door on5+days time. More optimistic now than 4days ago! Ive seen zonal pattern before bring alot of wintry weather on a strong positive NAO. Beginning of Jan 1984. These charts arent horrendus by any stretch.
-
2
-
-
Starting to see the polar vortex wind up at the end of these GFS runs. Christmas eve looks stormy (still). To be honest, would rather see cold zonality spill down from the NW as that gives us more chance of a NLy outbreak here in Scotland. Alot seems to be depending on that strength and placement of that Russian High,
November promising
December dampner
January might be the joker in the pack looking at the change to zonality.
-
2
-
-
Interesting to see the GFS 12z introduce colder polar maritime air just before Christmas. It suggested this a few dats ago. time will tell.
-
1
-
-
6 depressions/lows deflected to the north of the Uk on the gfs 12z when in recent years they would have nailed the western isles.
I cannot agree with you on this one Blasty.. winter is far from over.
-
3
-
-
Oh dear. winter of wildcards just thrown the joker! Talks of doom and gloom. Remember some of you have already seen snow this winter... early! Look at the way all the charts deflect those lows North... thats good too. That polar vortex is pretty pathetic. Ive been out running on the 23rd of december in shorts and tees. Then it snowed the 25th. We live in the Uk. A very small island which has a massive ocean as a neighbour. I still think we are in for a treat.
-
2
-
-
On 28/11/2016 at 15:16, snowbunting said:
Suspect Greenie high will nake an apoearance mid december...
What did I tell you! Yes CFS is being a complete metaphorical tease!
-
Its a year of a rather tame atlantic. It really doesn't get any more promising than this!
-
1 minute ago, Banbury said:
If Winter stopped at the time Gav ended his vid then that would do for me........................absolutely NO chance of CFS being correct
Most years I would agree with you, this year I'm not so sure. Just a hunch. Nothing to do with models. Just a little feeling I have.
-
2
-
-
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Its not actually his forecast but tis is what he means.
Wow, 1995 all over again
-
4
-
-
Wow the 12Z GFS really pulled a stunner of a run in Fl territory. With a Greenie high building bringing a Nly blast. Did have a look at the ECM and its looks like it may very well marry up! Exciting chart watching about to commence.
-
7
-
-
Up to day 11...much n such the same.... high pressure slowly giving way to the atlantic... but the GEFS after this point could be anyones guess if the ensembles is anything to go by. Still have a gut feeling that things will change mid december.
-
1
-
-
The pub run here to tease us again...!
-
Bingo from our pub run on the GFS, though not sure if it is in the right spot!
Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Positive height anomolies over greenland and swalvbard would suggest a potential for Nly blocking? And therefore a change in air mass for us in the uk? From polar martime to polar continental.